Thursday, November 20th, 2008

Horacio Marquez Says GPS Leader Garmin (GRMN) Is Oversold

Sep 15th, 2008 | By Horacio Marquez | Category: Featured, Financial News

GPS technology has exploded in recent years. But shares in onetime market leader Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) have plunged 73% from its peak due to fierce competition in the market.

Money Map Report editor Horacio Marquez says Garmin is an attractive buy at its current price of $34.46. The company is aggressively improving product technology and extending the services it offers to customers. It should also receive a boost from Christmas shopping.

Horacio says Garmin’s high-growth potential combined with its value share price is too much of a bargain to ignore…

This from Money Morning:

Garmin, a leading producer of global-positioning systems, has a strong market position, meaning its stock should deliver nice profits if purchased at the current low valuation.

Global-positioning system technology has revolutionized navigation at sea, in the air, and on land. And with my Garmin unit, you know exactly where you are at sea or on land. By watching your progress as it’s tracked on the GPS map display, you always know your location.

Advanced features allow you to follow the fastest, direct and alternative routes around congestion, as you see fit. And the systems take into account historical and increasingly real-time traffic information on land, and also tell you about hotels, gas stations, ATMs and other nearby points of interest.

As GPS sales exploded in recent years, Garmin saw its stock price soar by nearly 500%. But the field has become much more crowded. While Garmin took the early lead and has a market share of more than 50%, rivals are gaining.

Last year, the Amsterdam-based TomTom NV made a splash with its own devices, which permitted the user to enter a destination address by voice – and which featured a lower selling price. This year Garmin has leapfrogged again, this time by rivaling offerings featuring more-accurate and more-versatile voice-recognition capabilities.

Clearly, the technological leapfrogging, like voice-recognition technology and real-time traffic data is creating more market-share volatility, even as market saturation and increased competition is bringing the prices down. To make matters worse, mobile phones - such as the Apple Inc. (Nasdaq:AAPL) iPhone, and others made by such firms as Nokia Corp. (ADR:NOK) - are adding land-navigation capabilities. This has forced Garmin to strike back by entering the mobile phone market. This proposition is easier said than done, since penetrating this ultra-competitive market is extremely difficult and the rivals in the mobile-phone sector are goliaths.

In this environment, predicting a technological winner is difficult. And it is easy to see that profit margins and sales growth rates by manufacturer are going to keep getting compressed by endless competition.

Already we have seen Garmin miss reduced earnings estimates in the last quarter. And Nokia’s $8.1 billion purchase of U.S. digital-mapping king Navteq Corp. (NYSE:NVT) highlights the rising competition. But Garmin isn’t rolling over and will not let its lead go without a fight. It first tried to acquire a digital-mapping company of its own. When that failed - in Garmin’s typical aggressive fashion - it refused to give up and resorted to a well-thought-out Plan B.

Garmin locked up a long-term deal with Navteq - despite the sale. Then it signed up for the mapping firm’s real-time traffic services. And it continues to consider other services to offer customers - hoping to improve both its margins and its overall profitability.

While the long-term situation in electronics is always one of flux and needs to be monitored closely, the reality is that Garmin’s shares have taken a dramatic beating, plunging 73% from their all-time high of $125.68. Garmin shares closed Friday at $34.46, up 82 cents, or 2.44%.

With a current Price/Earnings Ratio of 8.3, a forward P/E of 9.7 and a Price/Earnings to Grow Rate (PEG) ratio of about 0.5 - and with the Christmas shopping season looming - Garmin is now a value stock with strong growth to come.

The current “doomsday-scenario” pricing sets an absurdly low bar for an industry leader to jump over, meaning the stock represents a solid - if not downright attractive - value at these levels.

Now featuring the top voice-recognition technology, and adding other important features and services, Garmin is demonstrating a bare-fisted response to competitive changes has underscored a willingness to defense its market leadership. Buy this high-tech growth stock at a value-stock valuation.

Action to Take: Buy Garmin for its GPS-market leadership. At current levels, you’re buying a high-growth stock at low-growth, value-stock valuations. It’s too much of a bargain to ignore.

Source: Buy, Sell or Hold: Garmin Ltd.


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More on this topic (What's this?)
Problems with Garmin
Get Your Garmin
TomTom vs. Garmin.
Read more on Garmin at Wikinvest
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By Horacio Marquez

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Horacio Marquez is a contributing editor to Money Morning.

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Money Morning is the leading source of investment research on the global markets. Its free daily service provides news, research, investment opportunities and insights on international investing -- most of it well before it appears in the mainstream financial media.

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