Housing Data Sends Dollar Down
Apr 22nd, 2008 | By Contrarian Profits | Category: Featured, Financial News, US Dollar & Forex TradingMore bad news for the US economy: sales of existing US homes fell 2% in March.
The recently released data from the National Association of Realtors are more evidence of the continuing slump the US property market.
The euro hit new highs today on the news, surging to $1.60.
“In the United States and in the United Kingdom, it is clear that the housing boom has been a bubble,” says Lord William Rees-Mogg in Whiskey and Gunpowder.
“In the United States, the bubble has already burst — the only question is when the US housing market will reach its low point. Britain is following the same track, but is somewhere between six and twelve months behind.
“The fall in the house market has wiped out very important assets of the banking system, leading to the collapses of Bear Stearns and Northern Rock and the distress of other banks. It is difficult to put a figure on the contraction of credit that has resulted.
“The I.M.F. has suggested $1 trillion, which is an impressive round number. What has actually been lost is a multiple of the fall in house values, since there is a multiplier effect on credit and on the willingness to lend.
“A bank which has lost a billion dollars in the housing market, or some derivative of the housing market, will feel itself to be short of capital and will seek to draw in as much cash as it can. It may well go from over-generous lending to exaggerated borrowing, which will take it from being a net lender to being a net borrower.”
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