How An ‘OPEC’ For Natural Gas Could Help US Markets
Oct 23rd, 2008 | By Irwin Greenstein | Category: Oil Investment & Alternative EnergyRussia, Iran and Qatar, the world’s three biggest natural gas producers, publicly said they intend to form a natural gas cartel that would mimic OPEC for oil. Irwin Greenstein says this could create a major inflation headache across Europe and Asia. And that could send investors running back to the US.
While the idea of these anti-West states controlling both natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) is enough to send shivers down the spines of politicians and ordinary working folks, the implications could be greater than originally anticipated.
If in fact this troika manages to get its act together, Europe and Asia could be looking down the barrel of inflation – further hobbling any hope of an economic revival.
For investors, this could mean a return to the U.S. markets, where energy prices seem to be stabilizing for the time being. Unlike Europe and Asia, the U.S. sources its natural gas either domestically or from Canada and Mexico.
Europe and Asia aren’t quite as fortunate – exposing them to the kind of price-gouging that could keep markets depressed…or worse.
Prices for natural gas and LNG have continued to rise recently in lockstep with demand. But the triumvirate of Russia, Iran and Qatar could easily decouple natural gas prices from demand and the price of crude – especially since Russia and Iran are facing dire financial straits with the recent drop of oil prices.
Worldwide, total natural gas consumption is expected to increase from 104 trillion cubic feet in 2005 to 158 trillion cubic feet in 2030, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
As the EIA reports: The industrial sector, which is the world’s largest consumer of natural gas, accounts for 43% of projected natural gas use in 2030. In the electric power sector, natural gas is an attractive choice for new generating plants because of its relative fuel efficiency and low carbon dioxide intensity. Electricity generation accounts for 35 percent of the world’s total natural gas consumption in 2030.
A recent article in The Sunday Times noted that LNG prices this winter could jump 25% over the previous year, with demand rising by 2% a year until 2015.
The Sunday Times also said that Britain’s own gas supplies continue to fall. North Sea gas production slipped 12% last year. In two years’ time, roughly 40% of the U.K.’s gas supplies will need to be sourced from overseas as North Sea stocks run dry.
To quote The Sunday Times: “As Britain becomes more dependent on these supplies, the cost of keeping the lights on could well be dictated by events on the other side of the world.”
Rogue states like Russia, Iran and Qatar could easily drive up inflation in Europe and Asia by simply setting OPEC-like production quotas for natural gas.
If this whole idea of a natural gas cartel seems spontaneous – it isn’t. These bad boys have had 25 years to figure out their market advantage as the idea kept resurfacing over time.
And during that time, hatred toward the west has had time to build. Imagine, if Russia could halt natural gas supplies to the Ukraine in 2006, what it’s capable of doing to Europe.
In the end, could this really herald a return of investors to the U.S. markets? Sure, emerging economies were hot for a while, but if energy costs are driven up by this new triple-threat cartel, the resulting inflation could make American markets more attractive in the future.
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