The Treasury is having a tough time hawking US debt these days.  This from today’s Financial Times: The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.30 per cent on Thursday from 4.10 per cent the day before after bids at the government auction came at lower prices than expected.

The 30-year Treasury is now at its highest level since last November. The rise in bond yields has raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve will step up efforts – which began in March – to keep yields down through direct purchases of government bonds.

Tom Porcelli, economist for RBC Capital Markets, described it as a “terrible auction.”

Why is this bad news? Because such poor demand in the face of America’s requirement for record amounts of public debt will make it very difficult for the Fed to keep interest rates low.

You see, politicians pretend that there are few adverse consequences to their worsening debt addiction. And since the collapse of the debt bubble in 2007, they have been putting Americans in hock like it was going out of fashion.

Of course, all of this borrowing has very real consequences for Americans. As investor confidence and risk appetite return and US equities rally, investors are turning their backs on the low-yielding US bond market. As investors shun US treasuries, interest rates move higher to lure investors back into the market. This rise in treasury rates puts pressure on interest rates everywhere – from homes to cars to the interest corporations must pay on any new bonds they issue. Mark our words, higher interest rates in this market will just wind up choking off any real recovery.

The very real consequence of the rising long-bond yields can be seen in the recent rise in mortgage rates. This, again, from the FT:

Mortgage rates have been following the government bond yields higher. A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.84 per cent last week, according to a Freddie Mac survey, compared with 4.78 per cent the week before.

As underground investor Tom Dyson (who edits the excellent 12% Letter ), a rise in the long bond’s interest rate can crush certain income investments.

If the long bond’s yield rises from 4% to 8%, the yield on all other income investments must also rise by 4%. A 12% junk bond would become a 16% junk bond. A 14% dividend payer would have to become an 18% dividend payer.

As Tom says, the long-bond market is “weaker than a wet paper bag” right now. He reckons the magic number for shorting long bonds is 124.07. And the long bond closed at 123.26 on April 28 and is now making new five-month lows.

Here at Notes we smell opportunity. We have our eye on the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea ETF (NYSE:TBT) . This ETF has risen over 6% in the last five weeks or so.