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How to Beat the Fed’s Double-Digit Inflation Crusade

Mar 7th, 2008 | By Marc Lichtenfeld | Category: US Dollar & Forex Trading

Inflation hasn’t been much of a problem in the United States since Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker jacked up the Fed Funds rate to 20% in order to combat rising prices.

Unfortunately, the phenomenon is rearing its ugly head again with the Producer Price Index (PPI) rising 7.7% in January. Common sense suggests that with the Fed actually cutting interest rates in order to ward off an economic recession, inflation should continue. The question is: How high will it go?

Well, check out this scary bit of data I received, along with a chart from one of my favorite technical analysts (yes, I’m a geek and have favorite technical analysts)…

A Stark Trend That Points To Double-Digit Inflation

Double-digit inflation is on the way. At least according to John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder.

Roque points out that since 1947, every time the PPI eclipsed 7%, it didn’t stop until it hit at least 10%. The highest level was 19.5% in 1974. And as you can see from the chart, when inflation climbs above 7%, it tends to stay there for a while. In the late 1970s/early 1980s, the PPI was greater than 7% for more than three-and-a-half years.

yearly producer price index chart
Go The Inverse Route With These Four Inflation-Busting Funds

If Roque is correct – and I believe he is – investors need some kind of strategy, or investment vehicles, that will offset the decaying power of inflation on their portfolios.And that’s what we’re here for. Rather than just report doom and gloom, we want to give you some ways to hedge against higher inflation. So here goes…

Inverse Bond Funds: There are several mutual funds that are inversely correlated to the bond market. You see, while current Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is committed to lowering interest rates, reality will smack him hard if inflation does in fact reach double digits.

He’ll then be forced to raise rates significantly in order to fight continuing price increases. And when rates go up, bonds go down – which is why an inverse bond fund should perform well in that environment. Here are a few to consider:

Rising Rates Opportunity 10 ProFund (RTPIX): Seeks returns that are inverse to the daily movement of the 10-year Treasury note.

Rising Rates Opportunity ProFund (RRPIX): Seeks returns that correspond to 125% of the inverse daily movement of the 30-year Treasury bond.

Rydex Inverse Government Long Bond Strategy (RJYUX): Seeks returns that inversely correspond to the movement of 30-year Treasury bond.

(ProFunds) Access Flex Bear High Yield (AFBIX): Seeks returns that correspond to the inverse performance of the high-yield market.

The World’s Favorite Past-Time: Dollar Bashing… But Is Relief In Sight?

While it is trendy to bash the U.S. dollar these days and Marc Faber just came out and declared that Bernanke is in the process of “destroying” the dollar through the Fed’s monetary policy, it’s worth keeping one thing in mind…

If inflation continues to rise and Bernanke is forced to hike interest rates, it should help put a floor under the currency.

And should the dollar rise, investors can capitalize in the following ways:

THE FUND ROUTE:
Rydex Strengthening Dollar 2x Strategy (RYSBX): This fund seeks to provide returns that are equal to 200% of the U.S. Dollar Index.

THE ETF ROUTE:

If you’re a dollar bull, you can also go for ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds). One of the top ones is:

PowerShares DB Dollar Bullish Fund (AMEX: UUP): The ETF is designed to track the performance of the Deutsche Bank U.S. Dollar Futures Index. Of course, you could always short the ETFs of other currencies such as the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (AMEX: FXE).

THE TIPS ROUTE:
If you want to head down a more conservative path, then one option is to own U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). These are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Simply put, when inflation rises, so does the principal. The inverse is true as well.

However, at maturity, the investor will receive the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. More information on TIPS is available on the U.S. Treasury’s website here.

Of course, you don’t have to go down the fund route at all. You can always power up your portfolio by picking great stocks and options, such as the ones recommended in the Xcelerated Profits Report. Our recent 99% winner in BioMarin (Nasdaq: BMRN) would help any portfolio withstand the effects of inflation. Click here for more information.

Hoping your longs go up and your shorts go down.

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By Marc Lichtenfeld

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About the Author

Marc Lichtenfeld is a Senior Analyst for the Xcelerated Profits Report and Smart Profits Report of Mt. Vernon Research and a specialist in biotechnology. A contrarian investor by nature, Marc loves to shoot holes in conventional thinking and take profits where nobody else is looking.

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Smart Profits Report is a comprehensive investment tool that brings you top chart analysis and cutting-edge trading techniques. Smart Profits Report's market-beating technical analysts reveal how to use highly effective charting tools that mainstream analysts know little about or nothing about.

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