As much as I love how shnazzy Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) computers and electronics can be, it doesn’t take away from the high cost of Apple’s products. And this is set to cause AAPL some pain in the year ahead.

That’s because in this market, cheap is king.

Considering Apple sells laptop and desktop computers at a $500 – $1,000 price premium, consumers feeling the pinch of the recession are likely to shy away from buying an Apple computer in the short to medium term.

And this kind of pull back would undoubtedly hurt AAPL’s share price.

This is a chart AAPL that goes back to the end of September.

As you can see, AAPL has formed a nice consolidation pattern (I talked about these here) that has held since last November.

Basically, every time Apple hits $100 a share it drops. And any time it hits $83 a share, it climbs.

Here’s my big, bold prediction: AAPL is heading south. Short AAPL (or buy a put option if you’re feeling saucy) and ride the sucker down to $83 a share.

That’s a nearly 20% profit.

Always remember to play it safe by having a stop-loss before jumping into the play.