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How to Profit In Volatile Earnings Season

Oct 9th, 2008 | By Andrew Snyder | Category: Stock Market Investing

Alcoa (NYSE:AA) kicked off 3Q earnings season yesterday with some ugly data. Its share price tumbled to a 13-year low on the news. Andrew Snyder says this is just the beginning for the aluminum giant. More losses are likely to emerge as more earnings reports are published. Andrew says investors should look for buying opportunities amid the violent swings in individual stocks.

More from Andrew:

With the year’s third quarter just a week or so in our past, it is time to enter earnings season. Like usual, the first to make the big plunge is Alcoa (NYSE:AA).

The news from the giant aluminum producer was not good. This time last year, Alcoa was soaring as the economy was in high gear and manufacturing remained fairly strong. During the company’s third quarter of 2007, it reported net income of $555 million.

The situation is drastically different this year. Alcoa’s Q3 earnings were nearly slashed in half, down to just $268 million. On a smaller basis, earnings were just $0.33 per share. Analysts were looking for a figure of about $0.50 per share. That figure had already been revised from expectations of over $0.70 in August.

Share price has plunged on the news. The company’s valuation is down 16% and shares are trading for $14. Investors were willing to pay over $40 for those shares in June.

The huge earnings decline is partly due to aluminum prices getting slashed by 25%. Add general overall economic weakness and a strike at a powerful customer, Boeing (NYSE:BA), to the mess and you have a recipe for precipitous declines.

The news of a major earnings plunge at one of the nation’s most renowned manufacturing facilities hurts. But what is even more painful is the company’s decision to slash its capital expenditures.

Alcoa’s budget originally called for $3 billion in capital spending. Now, it will be less than $1.4 billion for the year. It is not good news for an economy that needs every dollar it can get its hands on.

More on the way

Do not think the downturn in Alcoa will be short-lived. This is just the beginning of the slump for the manufacturing giant. With the global economy at a standstill and even shrinking in some cases, aluminum demand (and therefore prices) will plummet.

Alcoa’s earnings announcement is always one of the first during earnings season. There will many other companies with similar stories. More losses are on the way.

The markets are doing a decent job of looking ahead and discounting companies before their announcements. Hopefully, the declines will end soon and we can start moving forward.

Until that happens, keep a close eye on the earnings calendar. As companies surprise the markets, either to the upside or the downside, there will be some excellent buying opportunities. Keep tuned to the markets and invest accordingly.

Source: Alcoa (AA) Plunges: Earnings Season is Off to a Bad Start


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By Andrew Snyder

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About the Author

Andrew is a contributor to Daily Reckoning Australia and Today's Financial News.

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Today's Financial News provides an independent and practical perspective on the U.S. and global investment markets. We provide you with a free, reliable, easy, up-to-date, and focused resource to help you make your financial decisions with commentary, interviews, recommendations, and video. Today's Financial News includes the analysis and opinions of those editors whom we have come to trust over the course of the years.

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