';



Thursday, February 16th, 2012

How to Survive an Inevitable Economic ‘Barack Attack’

Posted on: Feb 28th, 2008 | By Andrew Mickey | Filed under Politics & Economics

I’ve got to tell you, there is nothing like being in the stock market business. Think about it. No one, with absolute certainty, knows exactly what’s going to happen tomorrow. Will it be another rally day?

Will we have to search for some reason why the markets are up? (“Resurging consumer confidence drove the markets higher today” or something of that nature.) And on the negative side when the markets are down, even with no apparent catalyst, we can always rely on recession fears causing the indexes to tumble.

As the markets appear to be moving sideways for the next few months (possibly a couple years, as they did during the last bear market), it’s going to become a pretty repetitive place.

But there is some hope: The U.S. is probably in a recession, but I highly doubt it’s going to be the end-all, be-all one with a dollar collapse, $3,000 an ounce gold and 50% unemployment.

Sure, it seems like financial Armageddon now, but didn’t it seem like that during every bear market or recession?

The last recession should have been worse. I mean, the dot-com bubble bursting and 9/11 attacks should have caused major injuries to the market that would have taken more than a two-year bear market to fix… but they didn’t.

So, yes, I am bearish and see the markets trading flat, at best, over the next four to five months (with the exception of the commodities and agriculture world, they’re set to absolutely rip again in 2008). But I think there is a much greater danger to your wealth than any Fed rate cut, inflation or slowly waning dollar value staring at us in 2008.

The way things look, it appears the U.S. economy is headed for a full-on Barack Attack.

I don’t mean to single him out, but I just notice him never saying anything of substance and making repeated references to his campaign Web site, where he has laid out his policy objectives. To be honest, I don’t think the other candidates say much, either, but Barack seems to be saying nothing louder and louder each time.

And after watching how the Senator from Illinois can energize the participation trophy generation with wild promises of paying them unearned sums of money, he’s probably going to be sitting in the White House this time next year.

But as I’m sure you’re aware, campaign promises are simply just that — promises. But I got to thinking, if this guy can motivate hundreds of thousands of stereotypically lazy and entitled (regardless of achievement) youth, could he get his economic plans through a likely heavily Democratic Congress?

Imagine… It is possible. But what would that mean for us as investors. After navigating to this often-mention, little-cited Barack Obama economy page, the end result to the U.S. economy and private citizens’ wealth would be disastrous.

After making it through the first 500 words, I realized one recurring theme: protection. In fact, protection is mentioned 14 times in his economic policy Web page.

Barack, with his economics degree from the Smoot-Hawley Institute firmly in hand, promises to protect us from all of our “evil” economic competitors.

Apparently, that’s a good thing. Because I hate having the Chinese make cheap stuff, whether it’s tires, ovens, blenders… pretty much anything. But the low-cost manufacturing countries have provided a lot of good to the United States. And all that could be coming to an end if we’re going to “protect” ourselves.

We had a fantastic system for a while. We’d send China money; they’d send us stuff. Truly, a great system while it lasted. Now we want the stuff — and the money… not going to work. We have to choose. There’s no policy wand to wave over this problem.

But hey, I thought that was the worst part… until I got to the section about the auto manufacturers. Granted, Detroit’s in bad shape, but I don’t think adjusting NAFTA is going to be the solution.

Do you know how many car parts are produced in Mexico? From someone who used to work in the trucking industry, I can tell you firsthand — it’s a lot. But Mexico is stealing our jobs and undercutting Detroit on parts prices. We simply can’t compete.

Senator Obama’s answer? Eliminate the trade. “Protect” Detroit form Mexico. Yeah, that’ll help things out.

Detroit’s problem is costs. Healthcare, pension and wages drive up the price of every car that rolls off the line. With sales already well into decline, rising costs are not helping things out.

So, here’s his solution: Let’s eliminate the only cost-competitive part of the entire car manufacturing process. That’s only going to make Detroit vehicles even more expensive and make cheaper, higher quality, more fuel-efficient foreign-designed cars even more attractive to car shoppers.

Senator Obama’s plan couldn’t possibly work, that is, unless taking away one of the few advantages the Big Three automakers have created for themselves and drive up the costs of building a car in the U.S. will actually help things out.

And that’s just the start. It could be a full-on attack on the economy because when Smoot and Hawley got together to “protect” the United States from international forces, it caused a stock market crash back in the early 1930s. The consequences will not be good.

In the end, I do believe this charismatic leader will be president; however, all his speeches and cheerleading won’t be able to implement his promised changes. For my portfolio’s sake, this time I’ll be hoping Senator Obama’s promises are just as empty as the next guy’s.

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Election 2008 at Wikinvest

Random Posts



Taipan Daily is your free resource for late-breaking investment opportunities to help you beat Wall Street to the profits. Filled with investment analysis and insight from every sector. Taipan Daily delivers just the right blend of safe opportunities with the fast-moving plays, so you have an insider's edge over Wall Street and other investors.

See All Posts from This Publication

One comment
Leave a comment »

  1. [...] Contrarian Profits wrote an interesting post today on How to Survive an Inevitable Economic "Barack Attack"Here’s a quick excerptI’ve got to tell you, there is nothing like being in the stock market business. Think about it…. [...]

Leave Comment