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Thursday, February 09th, 2012

How Today’s 2.46% Dividend Yield Could Destroy Your Wealth in the Coming ‘Great Bear Market’

Posted on: May 29th, 2009 | By Contrarian Profits | Filed under Notes From the Investment Underground

The higher this rally goes the more you’ll hear that another bull market has started, says underground investor Chris Weber. But Chris is warning investors not to be fooled.

Chris, who edits the Weber Global Opportunities Report, started investing while in high school and made so much money he hasn’t had a “real” job in his life. He’s an investor’s investor. And that means when he makes a call we listen.

Chris says all the great starts of bull markets have certain things in common. And these can all be summarized with the words “Great Values.” Most important, new bull markets offer investors great dividend yields and low price-to-earnings ratio on most stocks.

Right now, the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is 2.46% — lower than the 3.58% yield the index offered was when this rally started in March.

    At every start of a real bull market, dividend yields were much, much higher than just 3%. They were over 6% in 1982, over 7% in 1949, and over 10% in 1932. Those were the beginnings of real bull markets. The kind of markets that if you got in early and just held, and reinvested your great dividends, they made you rich.And that is why I have urged that everyone who participates in this rally use trailing stops. These stops can be staggered: some as low as 3%, others as high as 50%, and every gradation in between.
    Yes, if the Dow reaches 10,000 or 12,500, or the S&P goes back to 1,000, or 1,100 or 1,200… there will be great rejoicing and optimism that the worst is over. But I will be looking at both the dividend yield and the price-to-earnings ratio on both indices. And from where I sit, if stocks do indeed go that high, it will only be a signal to tighten my stops. Bull markets begin with stocks trading at great values. And those values are not yet here.

Like we said before, there’s money to be made in the current rally… if you know what you’re doing. The folks at Today’s Financial News just bagged their 26th double-digit gainer since January – 30% on U.S. Geothermal.

They also see opportunity in the coming supply crunch in silver. Already, they’re up 17% on the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE:SLV).

Today’s Financial News have just released a free special report featuring three undervalued silver stocks… and an options play that they think might bag gains of 1,100%. Notes readers can access it here.

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Dividend Yield at Wikinvest

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