Grinding To a Halt. This week I have been cheering myself up immensely by reading Transport for London’s ‘Transport 2025 – A Vision for a Growing World City.’ Cheering myself up because I don’t live in this ‘Growing World City’! I don’t have to believe the conclusions of a report that might have been titled ‘Vision for an overcrowded and congested city that unlike genuinely world-class cities like Sydney and Vancouver has lost sight of the need to balance quantity with quality.’

The city, says Transport for London (‘TfL’) ‘is set to grow and prosper in future, with over 800,000 extra people and 900,000 extra jobs forecast over the next twenty years.’ That is certainly growth of a sort, but whether it will make the average Londoner feel any more prosperous as he fights for air in this pressing throng, I wonder. ‘Total travel is projected to increase by four million journeys every day by 2025.When the mode shift from car travel is taken into account an additional five million daily journeys will need to be supported by public transport, walking and cycling.’ This ‘mode shift’ is more likely to be the result of crawling traffic and hefty motoring charges than a genuine desire to slip into lycra cycling shorts or strap on a pair of walking boots. So, basically, five million extra bodies every day will be heading for the bus stop or tube station.

Demand for public transport is expected to increase by 40%. To anyone who has is already almost crushed to death on the tube each morning it will seem physically impossible to cope with this sort of increase. There is of course one obvious answer to the problem, and that is to do everything possible to reduce London’s population, starting with some sensible policies to move civil servants to the north of England; to build new airport capacity somewhere that could do with a bit of an economic boost – Hull for instance; and to limit immigration such that it may be possible to order a coffee in London from somebody whose first language is English.

Passenger numbers to soar

No hope of this obviously. So somehow London’s already inadequate public transport system has got to be cranked up to take 40% more passengers. This is how TfL is going to do it. ‘Improve public transport and manage the road network to reduce traffic congestion,’ i.e. more road pricing schemes, even higher parking fees and a general aim to make it impossible for the average Joe to drive from one side of London to the other. Great!

The second aim is to ‘Improve Social Inclusion.’ This section is a load of socialist gobbledy-gook, along the lines of ‘the causes of social exclusion are complex and multifaceted… solving accessibility problems can be about transport, but also about locating and delivering key activities that help people reach them.’ But basically it means step-free buses and easy-access trains for people on wheel-chairs. And it also means ‘door-to-door accessibility of trips… an essential part of improving London’s overall accessibility’, a nod in the direction of women whose night out is ruined by the prospect of the two hundred yards that they have to walk home through dimly lit and dangerous streets. What can be done about this, short of having a bus stop on every doorstep, I don’t know.

But the third objective is one that does have some meaning. TfL wants to ‘tackle climate change and enhance the environment by reducing CO2 emissions, improving air quality, reducing noise and improving the urban environment.’ No doubt this can partly be achieved by stuffing people underground onto the tube. But it can also be achieved by replacing today’s dirty fuel-guzzling buses with a new clean and fuel efficient generation.

A huge amount of work is being done on clean engines. I am not talking about fuel-cell engines which are still decades away from commercial reality. But hybrid engines, powered both the internal combustion engine and battery-generated electricity are available today, and are especially suited to the sort of stop-start journeys undertaken by buses.

Hybrid engines can make a difference to London. They could make a difference to your pocket as well, because many small companies have identified this business opportunity and are keen to benefit from it. If you want to know the best way of taking a ride on the future of the London bus, you should read the April issue of Red Hot Penny Shares.

Regards,

Tom Bulford
for The Penny Sleuth

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