Saturday, November 21st, 2009

InBev (INB) Is a Great Play on One of the World’s Steadiest Trends

Jul 14th, 2008 | By Ian Davis | Category: Featured, Financial News

When times are hard consumers cut back on luxury items. But they don’t cut back on beer.

On Sunday Anheuser-Busch (BUD) accepted a $49.9 billion takeover bid from Belgian-based InBev (INB). This consolidation in the market has sent brewery stocks rallying while US benchmark indexes tumble.

If the takeover goes through, Ian Davis  in The Growth Stock Wire says InBev will be the undisputed leader in the global market. This is not only a safe option during an economic downturn, but it’s also a great way of investing in emerging markets…

I’ll start today’s column with an incredible statistic… 48.

Forty-eight is how many out of every 100 domestic beers sold in America are made by Anheuser-Busch (NYSE:BUD).

This is why, along with companies like Nike (NYSE:NKE), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), and Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG), Anheuser-Busch is one of the most valuable brands ever created… And it’s why a Belgian brewery will most likely be the proud owner of the company.

On Friday, InBev (EBR:INB) – which makes Stella Artois and Beck’s – got a little closer to acquiring Anheuser-Busch. InBev is the world’s second-largest brewery by volume sold.

This consolidation talk has been bullish for the beer sector. As the following chart shows, an index of brewers is up 13% since February. The S&P 500, on the other hand, is down 10.8% over the same period.

Brewers Have Soared 13% Since February

This strength is a classic case of a “defensive” sector doing its job. Here’s the argument: In tough economic times, consumers tend to cut down on expensive motorcycles and boats, but they’ll keep drinking beer. (If they’re behind on their subprime loan payments, they may even increase their beer intake.)

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Anheuser-Busch isn’t solely responsible for the Brewery Index’s strong performance. Since February, Boston Beer (NYSE:SAM) is up 6.9%, Molson Coors Brewing (NYSE:TAP) is up 16.3%, and Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) is nearly flat at -1.4%. This is actually fantastic performance when the S&P 500 is cratering.

These shares are also doing well because speculators are betting more consolidation is in the works. Whether this consolidation happens or not, you should still consider a position in breweries. They’re simply one of the steadiest sectors in the market… especially during a recession.

Consider that Anheuser-Busch’s earnings grew from $1.33 per share in 2000 to $2.44 per share in 2003, during the dot-com crash. And here’s a look at how its stock and other major alcohol distributors performed.

Performance from March 2000 to March 2003
Boston Beer (SAM)

81.8%

Molson Coors Brewing (TAP)

10.0%

Constellation Brands (STZ)

93.3%

S&P 500

-40.5%

As you can see, breweries are a solid recession investment. (They’re also a phenomenal way to invest in emerging markets. A single company often dominates an emerging-market’s beer industry.)

Brewery stocks are getting too much media attention these days (because of the Anheuser-Busch story)… so I won’t be surprised if they move lower over the next few weeks.

However, if the takeover goes through, InBev may be an interesting investment opportunity as the world’s undisputed king of beers. If you buy this stock – and others like it – you’re getting in on one of the world’s steadiest trends.

Source: A Simple Investment That Can Soar in a Recession


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By Ian Davis

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About the Author

Ian edits The Quant Trader, which uses a mathematical approach to finding stocks that are hated, cheap, and in an uptrend. Ian specializes in quantitative data gathering and has worked closely with Dr. Steve Sjuggerud to develop trading strategies based on trend, sentiment, and value.

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The Growth Stock Wire is a free daily e-letter that provides readers with a pre-market briefing on the most profitable opportunities in the global stock, currency, and commodity markets. It is a quick read on the best trading opportunities in the market, along with price and news updates on all the major stock markets of the world. You'll also be updated on the latest in gold, oil, copper, the dollar, and individual stock market sectors.

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  1. Here’s something I’ve yet to see noted. I’ll bet that 48 is also the high-water mark for AB’s future US market-share. There are lots of true-blue American beer drinker types that bought their last AB beer yesterday. Here in Missouri, I expect to see a full-blown revolt against AB products. I’m just waiting to see the first news story of a AB distributor getting chased out of a bar. And all those neon BUD signs? Into the trash! I wonder what is gonna happen at the new Clydesdale farm being built along the Missouri River? Will it be a new protest site?

    I’m expecting to see a resurgence of AB’s US competitors (assuming there are any left). Otherwise, even the good ole boys will start to migrate to the only remaining American beer, the microbrew, or to some Tennessee bourbon.

    This may be the most significant event so far in Thomas Jefferson’s warning against currency depreciation allowing the theft of American owned property at fire sale prices.

    I wonder if inBev would’ve paid $50B in 1913 dollars for AB (at least a 95% premium over what they did pay)? Not a chance.

    Thanks for selling us out to the banks, Mr. Wilson! Funny that your veto of the Volstead Act (national prohibition) did little to stop this loss of an American brewer.

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