Intrade is a website that allows you to bet on the outcomes on a variety of international events, from political elections and finance, to “Will Elliot Spitzer be Indicted on Felony Charges on or before June 30th”.

The traders on the website are currently betting with 89% odds that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee. They’re also placing a 37.9% chance that John McCain will win the presidential election in November. And, the chances of the US going into a recession in 2008 have fallen to 28% from a high of 76% back in early April.