Investing in Africa: Opportunities Aplenty
Posted on: Jun 16th, 2008 | By Marc | Filed under Featured, Financial News
With commodity prices through the roof, governments and businesses see investing in resource-rich Africa as an increasingly attractive proposition.
Chris Mayer explains in The Daily Reckoning why investing in Africa holds such potential for profit:
Africa increasingly is right in the middle of the global quest for natural resources. It has the highest ratio of light and sweet crude in the world – the best-quality stuff you can find. And most of its oil – some 83% – comes from large fields that produce at least 100 million barrels per day.
Meaningful amounts of premium oil in large fields explains why Africa attracts so much investment. Between 2002-2006, the big oil companies tripled their spending in Africa.
The recent discovery of oil sands in the Congo by Eni, a big Italian oil group, lends more credence to the idea of Africa as the future of global oil supply. Eni hasn’t said how much resource its vast acreage might hold. But the Financial Times reports early samples suggest, “The area as a whole could hold more oil than Eni’s entire reserves of 7 billion barrels of oil equivalent.” That would put Eni’s resource on par with the huge Kashagan field in Kazakhstan. Eni potentially doubled its oil reserves with this one African find.
Right now, Africa produces only about 12% of the world’s oil output. By 2012, that could be 30%. No wonder, then, it has become such a competitive battleground for the oil companies. In a recent auction, India’s state oil company bid $321 million for an Angolan oil block. A Chinese oil giant bid $725 million. Guess who won?
It’s not just about oil, either. Africa holds tremendous amounts of natural gas, minerals, and natural resources of all kinds. Much of it is in places where it’s easy to do business. But there is often a fragile social fabric, which seems ever on the brink of a civil war or a coup or worse.
In Niger, for example, you will find some of the world’s largest deposits of uranium. Niger plans to double its output over the next several years.
Companies from all over the world – Australia, Canada, China, India, and France – scramble to lock down claims. But the uranium deposits lie in the ancestral home of the nomadic Tuareg. The Blue Men of the Desert (so-called due to the color of their favored indigo dyes) return to old ceremonial grounds to find red flags marking uranium deposits. The result is predictable – battles between the Niger army and Tuareg fighters, and bloodshed.
Yet the rewards dangling before the world’s eyes are so great. Many companies will walk the edge of that precipice for a shot at glory. A longtime holding in my Capital & Crisis advisory, Canadian Natural Resources has a mix of West African oil properties that could be significant. Another longtime holding, electrical infrastructure specialist ABB Ltd, has a big power project in Namibia and a growing presence in Africa.
Betting on Western companies that have this sort of backdoor exposure to Africa is my preferred modus operandi.
It’s far safer, for one thing. But I wouldn’t mind investing in more of a pure play if I could find a company that offers enough safety and enough upside. In my Mayer’s Special Situations letter, we recently doubled our money in Vaalco Energy, a small West African oil explorer and producer, in about eight months. So there are success stories here.
Profit Watch editor Manraaj Singh says the huge sums of money flowing from China to Africa will create great investment opportunities:
China has already invested $30 billion in Africa’s oil and gas industry. And most of that has gone to places that most Western investors would never have touched: Sudan, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Nigeria….
Now it plans on investing $5 billion in the West African country of Niger. This is one of the poorest countries on earth. It ranks in the bottom five on the United Nations’ human development index. And the country is battling an insurgency by the magnificently blue-cloaked, be-turbaned, camel-riding Tuareg nomads in the north of the country. But the Chinese don’t seem remotely concerned. They plan to pump the country’s first barrel of oil next year. And to get it out of the country, they are going build a 2000-kilometre oil pipeline and a refinery with a capacity of 20,000 barrels a day.
Here’s another country about to become an economic annexe of the Middle Kingdom…
While we’re on the African oil industry, here’s a bit of very interesting news. Angola has now dethroned Nigeria as Africa’s biggest oil producer. Nigeria has held the top spot for decades. But militant attacks in the oil rich Niger Delta and worker strikes have undermined the country’s oil industry. In April, Angola produced 1.87 million barrels of oil per day. Nigeria produced 1.81 million barrels.
We aren’t in Nigeria. But our brilliant African play puts us in the thick of Angola’s booming economy. It owns airlines in the region and is setting-up a massive logistics centre in the country’s capital, Luanda.