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Investors Face A Head-On Collision In Battery-Powered Cars

Jan 26th, 2009 | By Irwin Greenstein | Category: Oil Investment & Alternative Energy

President Obama’s new ruling that allows states to set higher emission standards than Washington could give false hope to investors looking to cash in on investments in hybrid and electric vehicles. New data points to a prolonged adoption of battery-powered, next-generation transportation as the recession and low gas prices continue to conspire against the feel-good alternatives.

Long-suffering readers know that we’ve taken a contrarian position against hybrid and electric cars as evidence continues to mount against their short-term returns for investors. The flip side of our coin, however, is that we don’t know when these investments will start to show profits for shareholders.

Two data points popped up on our computers in recent days, further substantiating our gloomy view of battery-powered vehicles. The latest sales data on hybrid sales proved grim, while an article in the Wall Street Journal provides anecdotal evidence that the market uptake contradicts the market hype for electric cars.

Automobile Magazine recently reported that hybrid sales tumbled 9.9% in 2008. The consensus was that low fuel prices have deterred consumers shelling out the “hybrid premium,” in which these new fangled cars tend to cost more their gas-powered counterparts.

Even the segment-leading Toyota Prius suffered, with sales plunging nearly 30% in the second half of 2008.

The article quoted Andrew Brown Jr., chief technologist at Delphi Corp, as saying “People want the technology, but it’s got to be economical. That’s the challenge in the industry now: to get the cost of those components down.”

With fuel prices averaging around $1.62 nationwide in December 2008, it would take a Prius owner 70,000 miles to recoup the initial premium ($7000 base) over the similarly sized Corolla, according to the article.

One of the earliest causalities in this tough market is a Norwegian start-up Think Global AS. The Wall Street Journal described Think “as one of the front-runners” in the electric-car segment. Unfortunately, Think investors got caught in the squeeze between PR spin, no cash and cheap gas.

Just as Think was ready to ramp up manufacturing from 350 of its two-seater cars to 10,000, the bottom fell out of the market in every which way possible. The timing was horrible for Think. The worsening cash crunch forced creditors to demand faster payments. In the end, Think filed for bankruptcy protection.

Venture capitalists, the self-proclaimed smartest guys in the room, lost out on Think. The company’s demise came in the middle of venture drought as these super investors cut off cash infusions into green technology overall.

Now with significant incursions by the world biggest car makers into electric and hybrid vehicles, upstarts such as Think and others face more formidable obstacles to success. Still, regardless of how big the player, the economy and enduring low gas prices will continue to hammer green vehicles for investors.

Eventually, hybrid and electric vehicles will hit pay dirt. For the time being, you’re still better off putting your money into a bank CD.


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By Irwin Greenstein

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