It was just last summer that everyone was talking about the outrageous prices of gasoline. But today the conversation has done a full 180 – prices couldn’t be cheaper. But after falling 73%, is oil a screaming buy?

To find that answer, let’s look at a chart of Light Crude Oil ($WTIC).

The most obvious thing to note here is just how bad oil’s downtrend has been. But that doesn’t mean that prices can’t move higher.

But calling a bottom isn’t easy. Many a fortune has been lost by people attempting to call a bottom. So to avoid as much risk as possible, you need to look for something called a confirmation point.

A confirmation point is any point on the chart (usually a resistance line) that tells you that a trend has really formed and it’s time to ride it.

In the chart of oil, I noticed a possible ‘Reverse Head and Shoulders’ pattern in formation. This is a bullish formation. But for this pattern to work, you have to wait for the price of the equity to rise above its shoulder lines.

In the case of oil, that’s about $53 a barrel.

In other words, you should only become a buyer IF and ONLY if the price of light-crude pops above $53 a barrel.

Until then, enjoy the low gas prices. They could drop even further.