It may be that the credit crunch has not arrived yet, according to Financial Times blog FT Alphaville.

Alphaville has dug up a chart showing average daily volume of cash and securities transfers across Fedwire, the real-time gross settlement system operated by the Fed for transfers between commercial banks and other major financial institutions in the US.

This chart shows that Fedwire funds transfers have surged rather than fallen at the time when the credit crisis was in full swing — up 10% in Q3 and then another 5.2% in Q4.

According to Alphaville:

But it now seems inaccurate for us to routinely say that banks have been unwilling to lend to one another during the Crunch, since the total volume of financial activity remains very high. Private equity and subprime securitisation may have come to a halt, but other areas like corporate loans and currency trading appear to have continued to grow regardless.

What does this mean?

Sempra Metals’ John Kemp says:

If there IS going to be a credit crunch and a substantial decline in the ratio of financial activity to real-sector activity, it is still in future. The real impact of the credit crunch on real-side business activity has yet to be felt fully and will only be manifest in H2 2008, when restrictions on credit availability and falling profits will likely translate into a downturn in business investment, employment and growth.