Monday, November 23rd, 2009

Jim Rogers: More Pain for the Greenback, and the Failure of the Federal Reserve

Apr 8th, 2008 | By Keith Fitz-Gerald | Category: Politics & Economics

Let’s take a look at some of the highlights of the Money Morning interview with investor and author Jim Rogers.

Keith Fitz-Gerald (Q): There’s a confluence of money flowing into and around China. Do you believe that the U.S., with all its current problems, will get left out?

Jim Rogers: Absolutely.

The U.S. dollar is a terribly flawed currency. I’m trying to get all of my money out of U.S. dollars. I don’t know why anybody would put money into the U.S. dollar, and by extension into the U.S., as we stand here today. The U.S. is probably the largest debtor nation the world has ever seen!

The United States’ foreign debts are increasing at the rate of $1 trillion U.S. dollars every 15 months. U.S. foreign debt is over $13 trillion, and rising rapidly. It’s the official policy of the central bank to debase the currency. They’re trying to drive down the value of the dollar.

Q: The government has succeeded wildly, so far.

Rogers: You haven’t seen anything yet!

They’re trying to drive down the dollar. I’m trying to be patriotic. I’m trying to sell dollars. That’s what they want. I’m trying to help them drive down the value of the currency.

All Americans should. There are certainly probably good reasons to put some money in dollars. For instance, if you have to buy cotton, you have to have dollars.

But for the most part – I, anyway – am joining other people who’re trying to avoid the U.S. dollar, because Washington has sent a very clear signal: “We want the dollar to decline. We’re gonna do our best to make it decline.”

Well, everybody has to make their own decision. I’m trying to do what the Federal Reserve wants me to do, and I’m selling dollars.

Q: My take is that former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan and current Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may go down as the worst central bank chairmen in history. Do you see it differently?

Rogers: [Bernanke] and Greenspan together will probably bring [about] the end of the Federal Reserve. We’ve had two central banks in America that failed. This third central bank will probably fail, too, because of Bernanke and Greenspan.

The Federal Reserve last week put $200 billion more onto its balance sheet of mortgages. Now I don’t know how big they can expand their balance sheet, but if they keep doing it, there’s only so much – [and] they just bought Bear Stearns.

There’s just so much they can do. Maybe that balance sheet is infinite. I doubt it. And it can be said to be infinite; they just print money like Zimbabwe or someplace. But that has to come to an end, eventually.

Maybe Bernanke is going to get into his helicopter and fly around collecting rents now. Maybe when they repossess all the property, he’s going to be the rent collector. But then when they eventually take on all the car loans, I guess he’s going to be collecting car payments, too. And credit card debt, when they take over all the credit card payments, I guess he’ll be hauling us all out saying: “Your credit card’s overdue.”

This is insanity.

Q: Is there a circumstance under which you could see the U.S. recovering, or do you think this country is doomed to be an economic also-ran?

Rogers: Historically, nations that have gotten themselves into this kind of situation have only gotten out following a crisis or a semi-crisis, or some gigantic stroke of luck.

The U.K. got out because they discovered the North Sea. Now you give me the largest oil field in the world, or one of the largest oil fields in the world, I’ll show you a good time, too.

So if you have a stroke of luck [you can escape these kinds of problems], but otherwise, nobody’s ever sorted out these problems without some kind of gigantic crisis or semi-crisis first.

In America, most people do not understand there is a problem! The few who know there’s something going on don’t understand what it is. Most of them who understand it actually think it’s good that the currency’s declining. America’s not going to do anything until things get very, very bad.

Others that offer the rejoinder to this – that the declining dollar makes America competitive – [that] has worked in the short term. But no country has ever restored itself by debasing its currency, not in the long term, not even the medium term.

Many places have tried to debase their currency as a solution. It’s never worked, other than maybe in the short-term, for a while.

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By Keith Fitz-Gerald

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About the Author

Keith Fitz-GeraldKeith Fitz-Gerald is a Contributing Editor to Money Morning, as well as Investment Director of the Money Map Report and editor of the New China Trader. He is also a seasoned market analyst known for his accuracy, perspective and insight. He is also a former professional trader and licensed CTA advising institutions and qualified individuals, and he specializes in non-directional trading.

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Money Morning is the leading source of investment research on the global markets. Its free daily service provides news, research, investment opportunities and insights on international investing -- most of it well before it appears in the mainstream financial media.

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