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JPMorgan Cuts Major Asian Indices’ Forecasts by Double Digits

May 5th, 2008 | By Mike Caggeso | Category: International Investing

Citing the global inflation epidemic as a key threat to growth, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) made double-digit cuts to its 2008 stock index forecasts for several major Asian economies.

Chirowth this year – and that’s after China’s government has taken steps to slow the country’s economy down. Other Asian countries such as India, Vietnam and the Philippines are following in near lockstep.

“Investors who abandon China now will live to regret their decision,” Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald said. “China will continue to grow for decades to come. And that’s after nearly 30 years of double-digit growth that country has already logged into the history books.”

China Profit Plays

With many indices beat down significantly by the Asian bubble burst and global credit crisis, now may be a time for investors to get in while prices are significantly reduced from their 52-week highs.

However, economic underpinnings are still uncertain – both in Asian and U.S. markets. And only the strongest companies are best suited to grow during good times and bad.

A still-weak greenback will make brand-name imports [both products and services] even more popular in China. And rapidly growing consumer income will give China’s increasingly image conscious consumers the cash to buy them with.

We’ve been predicting that these two trends would converge for some time. That’s one reason why, all the way back in September, we said that brand-name companies such as MGM Mirage (MGM) were actually high-profit plays on China. And we still feel that way.

So the bottom line is that if controlling risk is key to your overall investment strategy, as you sift through China-oriented investment opportunities, look for companies that generate revenue and profit “because” of China including those that are based in more-highly regulated markets such as the United States and Europe.

Look, too, for companies with a solid dividend yield because the cold hard cash you receive can go a long way towards reducing your downside.

Consider the so-called “Global Titans,” including PepsiCo Inc. (PEP), Diageo PLC (DEO), Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM), McDonald’s Corp. (MCD), The Coca-Cola Co. (KO), The Boeing Co. (BA), and a few others.

Every investor must have a China strategy these days.

And while choosing to sit on the sidelines is certainly a viable decision, longer term it’s probably just not a profitable one.


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By Mike Caggeso

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Mike Caggeso is an Associate Editor Money Morning.

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Money Morning is the leading source of investment research on the global markets. Its free daily service provides news, research, investment opportunities and insights on international investing -- most of it well before it appears in the mainstream financial media.

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