Sunday, November 22nd, 2009

Last Call for Oil

May 13th, 2009 | By Steve McDonald | Category: Featured, Oil Investment & Alternative Energy

This is the third article I have written since March imploring people to buy oil, and now gas. Time is running out. This is the first time I have ever repeated a subject in one of my articles, but this is such a great opportunity it deserves one more shot for those who may have missed it.

Oil has gone from about $38 per barrel to around $58 per barrel in the last two months. The recommended plays from the last two articles have also run.

The two ETF’s I have recommended have performed exactly as advertised. Both, DXO and DIG have consistently returned at least twice the increase in the price of crude oil. Within days of the first recommendation you could have purchased DXO for as little as $2.71 per share, it’s now about $3.46.

The current price of crude, $58, and the expected price target of $75 per barrel would suggest another 60% gain is possible for both in the near term. At this point the move in the price of oil is almost unavoidable, for many reasons.

In just the past two weeks, two different OPEC spokesmen have stated that oil has to go to at least $75 per barrel, and production will either be cut, or would not increase when the world economy to expands, which amounts to a cut. This is reason enough for the excess oil reserves we have to dry up in a hurry.

With information like this on the street it is conceivable that if any really significant positive information about the health of our economy, or any other key world player’s economy, were to be released we could see a run well beyond our near term price of $75.

The U.S. economy is showing signs of improving. The most recent jobs numbers indicate we are on the right track for a healthy recovery.

The stock market’s recent move is indicative of it reacting to news six months into the future. Six months is about when most believe the economy should be moving into positive territory and the increases we have seen in oil prices are paralleling the upward moves in the market.

We are moving into the summer driving season and increased gasoline consumption. This too adds to the demands on our reserves and in recent years has driven the cost of gas up.

China’s economy is starting to rev up. 85% of their stimulus package was committed to infrastructure as compared to 5% of ours. This has had a more immediate affect on their numbers and it is showing in the rate of recovery.

As the economies of the world start to generate bigger and bigger numbers, the demand for energy will explode again. It’s doubtful we will see $146 per barrel again soon, but it will happen again.

The more immediate opportunity is in the next nine months. The price target of $75 is a forgone conclusion. How much higher it runs is a function not so much of consumption but of anticipated demand in response to how quickly the world economies recover.

So here again are the recommendations, with a new one.

DXO is a pure crude play that will give you two times the return of any increase in the price of crude.

DIG is a crude and natural gas play that also gives you two times the return of the price of crude and natural gas. It isn’t as clean a play as DXO but its return has outpaced DXO a little in the past few weeks.

The new play is a gasoline play, UGA. This is a pure play on the price of gasoline. It pays one to one for any price move on unleaded gasoline delivered to New York harbor traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gas in my area has moved from $1.99 to $2.29 in a week.

This is a move you must make now or get used to watching from the side lines. As the price moves into the sixties in the next few months, the total return on this play will have dropped to the point that it will have become a sucker play with the uninformed buying at the top.

This will not be a straight shot; you will have a few more opportunities on pull backs to average in and get your overall cost down. But make no mistake; oil is going back to the $75 to $100 range, and maybe higher. You have had plenty of opportunities to take advantage of it.

Source: Last Call for Oil



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By Steve McDonald

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Steve McDonald is a contributor to Investor's Daily Edge.

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