Comments on: Long-Term Outlook for Gold and Oil Is Bullish http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/long-term-outlook-for-gold-and-oil-is-bullish/4805 Access market-beating ideas from the world's top investment gurus on stock market investing, the gold market, ETFs, Forex trading and real estate values. Tue, 18 May 2010 05:09:46 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Gail Tenzer http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/long-term-outlook-for-gold-and-oil-is-bullish/4805/comment-page-1#comment-3148 Gail Tenzer Sat, 23 Aug 2008 20:00:37 +0000 http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/long-term-outlook-for-gold-and-oil-is-bullish/4805#comment-3148 Thanks Gary. I just read this article and it seems that it's answering my questions. We are in total agreement! Thanks Gary. I just read this article and it seems that it’s answering my questions.

We are in total agreement!

]]> By: Gail Tenzer http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/long-term-outlook-for-gold-and-oil-is-bullish/4805/comment-page-1#comment-3147 Gail Tenzer Sat, 23 Aug 2008 19:27:07 +0000 http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/long-term-outlook-for-gold-and-oil-is-bullish/4805#comment-3147 The last couple of weeks have been confusing from a fundamentals point of view. According to Peak Oil theory, bullish trends are in line with fundamentals and a shortfall of 2 million bpd. Traditionally, consumption and therefore demand rises during the summer months (increased driving, increased cooling costs, increased air travel). Demand in China went down because of the Olympics (mandated production and transportation slow downs to clean the air). $147/barrel price apparently broke the camels back and caused global economic slowdown thus eroding some demand, bringing prices per barrel down. Was the $147 high price a true reflection of the supply/demand shortfall and temporary erosion because of the Olympics and artificially depressed demand in China which will turn around as soon as the Olympics are over? Or, was the $147/barrel price not reflective of true market value but rather resulting from sudden and excessive inflows of capital into the commodities from institutional investors parking money in commodities awaiting bargains in other sectors and some speculation? Did the sudden drop from $147 to $112 reflect prices being driven up by institutions and speculators who then shorted the energy sector? Was the $147 price temporarily high, reflecting this activity and is the current true price of a barrel around $120, taking into consideration some global demand erosion as a result of economic slowdowns caused by unsustainable high energy costs? Once demand for heating oil kicks in and production goes back to normal in China, will we see prices go back up to $147 and above by Christmas, or has there been enough demand erosion to bring supply and demand into some sort of equilibrium over the next 6 months? The last couple of weeks have been confusing from a fundamentals point of view.

According to Peak Oil theory, bullish trends are in line with fundamentals and a shortfall of 2 million bpd.

Traditionally, consumption and therefore demand rises during the summer months (increased driving, increased cooling costs, increased air travel).

Demand in China went down because of the Olympics (mandated production and transportation slow downs to clean the air).

$147/barrel price apparently broke the camels back and caused global economic slowdown thus eroding some demand, bringing prices per barrel down.

Was the $147 high price a true reflection of the supply/demand shortfall and temporary erosion because of the Olympics and artificially depressed demand in China which will turn around as soon as the Olympics are over?

Or, was the $147/barrel price not reflective of true market value but rather resulting from sudden and excessive inflows of capital into the commodities from institutional investors parking money in commodities awaiting bargains in other sectors and some speculation?

Did the sudden drop from $147 to $112 reflect prices being driven up by institutions and speculators who then shorted the energy sector? Was the $147 price temporarily high, reflecting this activity and is the current true price of a barrel around $120, taking into consideration some global demand erosion as a result of economic slowdowns caused by unsustainable high energy costs?

Once demand for heating oil kicks in and production goes back to normal in China, will we see prices go back up to $147 and above by Christmas, or has there been enough demand erosion to bring supply and demand into some sort of equilibrium over the next 6 months?

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