Dollar-Euro parity? Crude at $12 a barrel? 15% unemployment? J. Christoph Amberger presents the Today’s Financial News top predictions for 2009…

A month ago, I asked my colleagues at TFN to think about the year ahead… the events that will shape the year both politically and financially. In short, to come up with realistic “Predictions for 2009″. As history is fast-forwarding, some of these events have already taken place. Others look increasingly probable… and not half as far out as they appeared just a month ago.

Here they are, in no particular order

*** Dollar hits parity against euro by June 2009.

*** Oil bottoms at $12 per barrel by April 2009.

*** Gold falls to $500 as Indian economy crashes and Dubai abandons spending spree.

*** Russian troops wearing Gazprom uniforms invade Ukraine to “protect” natural gas pipeline. The Russian stock market collapses. Three European energy stocks soar. (Yes, there’s still time to buy!)

*** US inflation dips to zero; interest rates too.

*** US unemployment hits 10% by January, 15% by April

*** Despite $25 billion in loans, GM files for bankruptcy

*** Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Bahrain abandon building projects for lack of credit and crashing oil revs. “Tower of Babel Syndrome”

*** China hit by bad loan scandal, excessive government spending, faltering exports, rampant inflation, civil unrest

*** China turns aggressive toward Taiwan, buoyed by pacifist White House

*** Australia and Canada have credit rating slashed, economies hit hard; currencies plummet

*** Junior mining companies, green energy tech, and marginal oil exploration (shale, sands, deep sea) go bankrupt by the hundreds

*** France jockeys for superpower position within EU

*** Major terrorist attack on US soil; Obama declares national emergency, establishes National Security Force

*** MRSA epidemic turns deadly

*** The healthcare industry will be burdened by increasing costs and regulations. But this news has been discounted for several months. Instead of trying to pick the winners and the losers in the industry, play a sector-wide ETF likes VHT and XLV. Short Big Pharma as companies are hit by government-backed liability suits and new influence of the trial lawyer lobby; watch anti-business courts penalize companies for research and development.

*** Obama will raise the cap gains rate to 30%, knocking out new capital inflows into market, triggering stampede of asset sales as investors rush to avoid Obama’s doubling of the tax rates next year.

***US Economy turns European: Unemployment extends towards double-digit territory. Wages drop and Washington creates massive infrastructure spending initiatives and corporate incentives to bring manufacturing back within American borders. Efforts fail because no company would want to do major capital investments in a country w/ 60+% income taxes, unfirable workers, compulsory health insurance even for temps. Despite showcase infrastructure projects, lack of community tax base and dying private initiatibve, American cities start looking like East Baltimore.

***  Tata Motors aready bought Jaguar & Range Rover: Maybe now it will buy Ford or GM? Detroit gets its bailout, but it is not enough to keep GM from asking for more. The core assets of the company are bought by a better-positioned rival like Volkswagen and its pension burden is dumped on the federal government. Car dealerships, at least the ones still around, are empty. You have to blow the dust off the windshield to see the sticker price. Major dealers like AN go bankrupt as they are too big to hide from the storm.

***US Auto parts industry goes bankrupt as its main customers wither. Foreign manufactures  like Wonder Auto thrive as used cars require increased maintenance.

*** Churches will see greatly increased attendance. Alcoholism and drug abuse will rise. Crime will be out of control in many suburban neighborhoods (racial tensions). Buy a gun and invest in VICEX. Casinos go broke for lack of travel, penny-ante online gambling runs rampant.

*** The value of the American dollar continues to gain strength. Boeing sees large forex bonus as it gets back in business. U.S. exporters are reeling from the double hit of global recession and increased cost to overseas customers.

*** No action is  taken against Iran, even during a military attack on Israel. The withdrawal from Iraq will be rapid, followed by withdrawal from Afghanistan and abandonment of the region to Taliban, Russia & China. Millions of dead in subsequent Iraqi civil war. Nobel Prize for Peace 2010 goes to Obama & Ahmadinejad as Shiites commit genocide in Iraq.

Source: Major Financial Events and Developments of 2009