Make No Mistake: This is a Bear Market Rally
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There’s no denying that US stocks have been rising of late, but is this pick up a genuine bull run or just another bear market rally?
Bloomberg reports that the S&P 500 has climbed 9.8% since reaching a 19-month low on March 10. And some Wall Street analysts, like Lehman Brothers Ian Scott, are predicting that better-than-expected earnings will pave the way for a bigger rally.
Eric Roseman thinks Ian and his Wall Street pals have it dead wrong.
“This is the biggest sucker’s rally since 2001,” says Eric in the Offshore A-Letter.
“This economic cycle marks the first time in the post-WW II period that inflation and deflation are running side by side. It is unprecedented. Consumers are spending less, losing their jobs and banks are denying credit. Also, soaring food and energy costs are killing consumers’ discretionary funds.
“Housing, however, is my primary concern. New home sales tanked 8.5% in March to their lowest levels since 1991. Housing shows absolutely no signs of bottoming. In my opinion, that’s the biggest deflationary tug on the economy.
“What we are seeing now is a long overdue bear market rally for stocks, including the homebuilders and REITs.”
“The problem with the recent shiny-happy talk,” says Justice Litle in Taipan Daily, “is that bear market rallies often last long enough to pull in the foolish or the over-eager… and then promptly fail when the max number of buyers have been roped in.
“That’s why, in an environment like this, it makes more sense to look at the big indexes with a skeptical trading eye, as opposed to a hopeful investing eye. I forget who said it first — maybe Jesse Livermore? — but it’s quite true that ‘hope is not a strategy.’”