New Zealand Index (NZ50) Defies Global Downturn
Sep 17th, 2008 | By Irwin Greenstein | Category: Featured, Financial NewsMost international markets are a sea of red. One exception stands out, says Irwin Greenstein, writing for Contrarian Profits: New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index Gross (NZ50). It has been steadily rising since June of this year.
The New Zealand economy is suffering from the same problems as just about every other country: inflation, low consumer confidence, real-estate troubles and a struggling currency.
However, it seems that the index has been tracking the fortunes of a major constituent: Fletcher Buildings Limited (NZE:FBU).
Both Fletcher and the country’s largest telecom provider, Telstra (NZE:TLS), comprise 25% of the benchmark index.
Although Telestra is down 11.96% since June, Fletcher has been on a tear, rising 16.99%.
Perhaps the most mind-boggling aspect of Fletcher is that it’s a building materials company (which owns the Formica company in the US). The group employs about 19,000 people with operations in New Zealand, Australia, the Americas, Europe, the Pacific Islands and Asia.
On August 13, 2008, Fletcher announced results for the year ended 30 June 2008. They were pretty impressive given the world markets. Net profits were $467 million, compared with $399 million in the previous year. Operating earnings hit $768 million, a 10% increase on the $698 million in the previous year. The company will actually pay a dividend of 24.5 cents per share on October 16, 2008.
The Intelligence Outlook for New Zealand issued by the Economist magazine forecast that inflation will peak at 4.7% in September 2008 before slowing. That’s also reflected in consumer price inflation, expected to average 4.1% this before slowing to 3.3% in 2009.
Still, New Zealand is not totally immune from the world financial system. The Economist Intelligence Unit revised downwards its real GDP growth forecast for 2008 to 0.7%, from 1.4% previously.
A big surprise in the New Zealand economy has been the country’s wine industry. It had a bumper year in 2007; wine exports exceeded wool for the first time. The New Zealand Winegrowers reported that, since 1997, revenues from exports grew from NZ$94 million in 1997 to NZ$760 million in 2007 – a 708.5% increase. Around the world, demand is exceeding supply, the group said.
Whether or not the next six months prove as profitable for the NZ50 remains to been seen. But definitely it check out to see if it’s a good fit for your portfolio.
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