The US economy is on the ropes but it’s not in recession, according to Commerce Department data on growth from January to March.

This from the AP news wire:

The country’s economic growth during January through March was the same as in the final three months of last year, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The statistic did not meet what economists consider a definition of a recession, which is a contraction of the economy. This means that although the economy is stuck in a rut, it is still managing to grow, even if slightly they say they believe that will likely happen during the current April-to-June period.

The question is: What will happen in the April-to-June period? Most analysts see the mighty US economy lurching into reverse during the second quarter.

Bill Bonner sees trouble ahead. “In a real economic downturn,” Bill says in The Daily Reckoning, “the United States (and other developed nations) would stop importing so much oil…and so much merchandise from China, which would have the consequence of reducing energy consumption by China too. Result: lower energy prices and a worldwide recession…maybe even the worst worldwide depression in history.

“What might be the consequences of such a depression? In the United States and Europe, probably nothing catastrophic. People in the developed nations live with a thick cushion under their derrieres. The bench might grow harder and less comfortable; assets would fall in price; earnings would decline (both for businesses and individuals); otherwise, life would go on as before.”

Andrew Gordon, in Investor’s Daily Edge, says optimism about the US economy is only going leave you sucker-punched and out of pocket.

“I’ve been begging analysts to get real and take off those rose-colored glasses for months now,” says Andrew. Their unwarranted optimism has resulted in two incredibly wrong-headed predictions 1. That the recession is short and shallow, and something resembling healthy growth will resume beginning in the second half of this year. 2.That company earnings will once again enter double-digit territory in the second half of this year.”