The US presidential elections are big news not only in the US. Argentine economist Horacio Pozzo of Latinforme.com, a new Latin American investment site, says that although president Bush ignored Latin American during his two terms there’s a lot at stake this time around…

The US presidential elections are approaching. Latin America has a keen interest in the outcome, though maybe not as much as before. Not only has the region grown stronger in recent years, but the US has lost some of its global influence to the Eurozone and emerging Asian giants.

The Bush administration forgot Latin America. This is a grave mistake — and one that the incoming president needs to remedy.

For now, the candidates are doing whatever they can to attract Latino support within the US. With an estimated 10 million eligible voters, this community could be decisive in determining who wins the White House. A Gallup opinion poll says 62% prefer the democratic candidate, Barack Obama. There’s a long way to go yet though.
“Obama brings a perception that the country is changing; that it recognises its errors and is prepared to amend them,” says Ted Piccone, Vice President of foreign policy at the Brooking’s Institute. “Meanwhile, [Republican nominee] John McCain projects an image of continuity.”

Obama promises to a radical change in relations with Latin America. It’s time to “lend a helping hand” he says. Too bad no-one thought of that earlier, when the region needed US support the most…

But according to Otto Reich, former assistant Secretary of State for the Western Hemisphere, McCain has the upper hand over his rival.

“McCain has visited nearly every Latin American country, while Barack Obama has never even set foot in Latin America,” says Reich.

This could work in McCain’s favour. If people think he has a better understanding of the region, they will view his policies as more credible. The Republican candidate is hammering this point across.“I know the [Latin American] leaders, I know their problems, and I understand the importance of our relations with them,” he says.

Meanwhile, Latin America awaits. My colleague Germán Sanchez referred to comments by Hugo Chávez in this recent article.

The Venezuelan president declared  “I would like to get ready so that, whoever becomes the next US president, we will work together to fight global hunger and save the world from food, energy and environmental crises.”

In Mexico, the choice of president does matter. It is by far the most exposed Latin American country to decisions made in Washington DC.

One of these concerns the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). On this front, Mexico would prefer a McCain victory. His support for NAFTA has become a central feature of his campaign. In contrast, Obama wants to renegotiate the agreement. He has even suggested he would abandon it altogether if necessary.

McCain also supports a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Colombia. Quoted in Argentina’s La Nacion daily, he says “one of the main goals of my government will be to promote free trade [in Latin America]. It is key to improving economic conditions in the region and will benefit the US economy.”

Obama, on the other hand, is less than convinced. “If John McCain believes that 80% of Americans think the country is heading in the wrong direction because we haven’t approved free trade with Colombia, he doesn’t understand the American people” says the Democrat.

McCain is also considering the elimination of agricultural subsidies, which would be hugely beneficial for some Latin American states. Without doubt, countries like Argentina and Brazil would earn billions of dollars from increased agricultural exports to the US.
Latin Americans (and especially Mexicans) are also interested in US migration policy. Obama has promised “reform within the first year of my presidency”. McCain also says he is committed to change. “We will tackle migratory reform,” he says in an article on CNN Expansion, “the day after my inauguration, I will send the matter to Congress.”

Energy is another topical point in the coming election. “I want to work with countries like Brazil to find cleaner ways of producing energy…” says Obama.

Another major concern for both candidates is drug trafficking. Both recognise the efforts of Mexico and Colombia in the fight against drugs, and have promised to continue supporting them. This issue is clearly of great importance to both Latin American states, not least in their efforts to promote sustainable growth.

I’m not certain that either candidate will follow through on all of his promises regarding future relations between the US and Latin America. But at least the US is clear that it can no longer neglect the region.

But Washington shouldn’t only seek to improve relations as a way of curbing the influence of socialist leaders like Chávez and Bolivia’s Evo Morales. It should forge closer business ties for growth and development of the entire region.