Obama to the fools: Duct tape will fix it
Posted on: Dec 10th, 2009 | By Andrew Snyder | Filed under Notes From the Investment Underground
By Andrew Snyder, TodaysFinancialNews.com
Baltimore — (TFN): Want to know when a specific trend has no legs? Simple, when the government backs it, you know its DOA.
Just ask the folks that dumped millions into the biofuels industry. I have never seen an industry fall off the map as quickly as ethanol, except maybe clean coal, but that’s a whole different story.
Now that Cash for Clunkers is in the history books and the economy appears to be in worse shape despite jaw-dropping levels of government prodding, the Obama administration has moved on to the next vote getter, er, I mean, stimulus package, er, I mean, jobs program.
It’s a kiss of death for the “green” initiative.
If you loved Cash for Clunkers, you’re going to flat-out be infatuated what the press has dubbed Cash for Caulkers.
It includes the same market-bending incentives. It gives your hard-earned tax dollars to somebody that likely doesn’t deserve a penny of it, plus it allows immense room for corruption and deceit.
But best of all, it isn’t limited to just $4,500. Nope, this time Uncle Sam’s writing checks for up to $12,000.
Fall in line, folks.
It’s a buy-one-get-one-free extravaganza at the White House. For every dollar you spend on “weatherizing” your house, Obama wants to hand you fifty cents in return.
If the first stimulus created scores of jobs in previously unrecorded political districts, imagine what this program will do.
I think I’ll install a high-tech “man cave” in the basement and label it as “internal carbon sequestration.” The former Acorn thugs rummaging through the reams of paperwork will never know the difference.
I’ll thank you in advance for the hard-earned tax dollars.
More seriously, we’ve got another politically motivated Ponzi Scheme on our hands here. It may send a well-tuned shockwave through the economy at a politically sensitive time for Obama, but it will do nothing for the nation’s failing attempt to pull up our boots and strut out of this mess.
What it will do is have much the same effects as the ill-planned Cash for Clunkers program. (I wonder if all those car dealers got their rebate checks yet.)
As mentioned above, just about anything will fall under the cloud of “weatherization.” We’ll see taxpayer funded swimming pools, sunrooms, outdoor kitchens, sprinkler systems… you name it.
Before you know it, Obama will be calling this thing a bigger success than he imagined and Congress will shove another sticky hand in our back pockets to fund some more votes.
Meanwhile, the price of just about everything you need to pick up at Lowes this weekend will surge in value.
Want to insulate your attic? It’ll cost you plenty more if Obama gets his way.
Want to replace the window Lil’ Johnnie broke with an errant foul tip? Get out your checkbook.
But the news should be good for McCain’s favorite campaigner, Joe the Plumber. His business is going to be through the roof… for about a month. Then just like we’re seeing at the nation’s car dealerships, he’ll be lifting his phone checking for a ring tone.
As for consumers, this is a great deal if you were already planning a new kitchen or some renovations.
But for the out-of-work father of two with a drafty house and a leaking roof, it’s going to do little more than incentivize him to break out the credit card and go even further in debt.
By why deal with that now? Just like national debt, that’s something the future can deal with.
*** Really, why should I complain? We’re making money hand over fist thanks to this political pandering.
I should be more specific. TFN Strategic Trader members are making money hand over fist.
Just today, we sold the second half of a position for gains of 100%. If you recall, we sold the first half for whopping gains of 400% just a couple of weeks ago.
All of our recent gains forced me to run some calculations today. It turns out, we’re kicking some serious behind.
Out of the 35 positions we closed since our debut in March, 26 of them have been breakeven or better.
Thanks to 14 trades with 50% gains or better (yes, you read that right), we’ve got a batting average of 0.743.
Nearly 75% of our trades have led to gains. That’s nearly unheard of for an options-trading service.
Let’s just say I can’t wait to see what next year brings.
*** It’s been a strong year for TFN Strategic Trader and it’s been a strong year for the biotech sector. As I told TodaysFinancialNews.com readers this morning, if the year would end now, biotechs would beat the market by a two-to-one margin.
The S&P 500’s up by about 18%. The biotech sector is up by 39%.
That’s good news for one biotech player, Fact Biotech (NASDAQ:FACT) as it searches for a deep-pocketed buyer.
Here’s some of what I told investors this morning:
“To be certain, if your goal was to beat the markets in 2009, the biotech sector was the place to do it. Unless something dramatic happens between now and the end of the month, biotechs will have outpaced the broader markets nearly two to one over the past twelve months.
“The S&P is up 18% year-to-date, while the biotech sector (according to the AMEX Biotech Index) is up by a whopping 39%.
“That kind of figure is good news for Fact Biotech as it mulls its future.
“Since September, Biogen Idec has had its eye on a Fact takeover. Its first offer of $14.50 per share was promptly rejected. And now we are receiving word that the company’s second tender offer of $17.50 has been unanimously rejected by the company’s board.
“According to the letter released to shareholders this morning, Fact’s top brass believes Biogen’s offer significantly undervalues its product pipeline and overstates its liabilities.
“What’s even better for investors, however, is the fact that the board is essentially putting a for sale sign on the company’s shares. “Beat this price and we’re yours,” their actions say.
“The news is good for share price. As I write the stock is up by nearly three percent, surpassing Biogen’s tender price by nearly forty cents.
“What comes next?” Keep reading to find out.
*** What am I watching for tomorrow? You should know by now. It’s all about the dollar and its sudden strengthening. The greenback’s up again today.
Gold bugs managed to stop a week’s worth of bleeding this morning, but if the dollar rises again tomorrow, don’t expect today’s gains to hold.
What’s more, next week is the final expiration date of the year. All sorts of crazy things will happen as those big institutional buyers shore up their books for an end-of-the-year review. It won’t be good for bullion hoarders.
Cash for clunkers did not help the ecnomy, the environment or the auto industry. It also hurt taxpayers, auto repair shops and car donations.