Saturday, November 22nd, 2008

Oil Price Prediction: Oil Below $50 as Global Recession Bites

Apr 25th, 2008 | By Contrarian Profits | Category: Featured, Financial News

With crude oil prices climbing above $117 a barrel investors are looking for oil price predictions and gas price predictions that may give them clues about oil’s trajectory.

Marc Faber, author of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, argues that a slowdown in the Chinese economy could put downward on oil prices.

Let us assume that the unthinkable happens,” says Marc in The Daily Reckoning. “China’s economy slows down sharply, or even contracts – and there are reasons why it could. Commodity prices slump and bring about economic hardship in the resource-producing countries. Imports of capital and consumer goods from Europe and Japan decline. We would then have the perfect setting for a global economic contraction with dire consequences for corporate earnings and asset prices.”

“We’re not predicting this, says Bill Bonner. “We’re sticking with our middle-of-the-road forecast…for neither worldwide prosperity nor worldwide ruin. But there are risks from both directions. And while most people expect a mild recession and quick recovery…almost no one expects the kind of global meltdown Marc imagines. We could see oil below $50…the Dow below 5,000…Wall Street wiped out…and 20 million US families busted.”

A stronger dollar may also play a role in bringing down oil prices, says commodities expert Doug Casey over at Casey Research.

Doug quotes John Kilduff, of MF Global, who says: “A substantial and sustained dollar rebound should be accompanied by a renewed affinity for other asset classes, further hastening a deflation of the commodity bubble.”

Andrew Mickey at Taipan Daily argues that $120 oil is just the start, partly as a result of what’s happening with Russia.

“Russia is not finding any new oil,” says Andrew.

“The situation is already pretty bad, and it’s only getting worse. At the current rate new oil discoveries are being made, total reserves of the world’s second-largest oil producer could be cut in half by 2030. Meanwhile, production could be slashed by 75%.”

Andrew’s colleague at Taipan Daily Justice Litle sees the Fed’s hand at work in rising oil prices.

“The world oil supply has become very tight. Demand is rising. The price for oil would ordinarily be going up to clear the market. But with all the ‘extra’ money creation coming out of the US Fed, oil prices are going up even faster (this is what the chart above shows). And I should add that just the expectation of loose money is also inflating the price of oil. There is probably $15-20 worth of ’speculation premium’ built into every barrel.”


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