Oil is still one of the best bets for long-term gains says Greg Guenthner. In the midst of blind market panic, investors are forgetting that crude is a finite resource facing unquenchable demand. It will rise to record highs again. And when it does, oil stocks will soar.

This from The Rude Awakening:

During times like these, it’s all too easy to become caught up in the moment. Fear is a powerful emotion. As the markets continue to crumble, many investors lose sight of their goals. They sell positions indiscriminately; they become irrational.

The sell-off we’re experiencing right now is global. And no stock or commodity has escaped the devastation. That’s why we’re looking at a scarce and valuable resource for steady long-term gains: oil.

One energy guru recently made a big bet on oil. He repurchased shares of Exxon (NYSE:XOM), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD), BP (NYSE:BP) and Statoil (NYSE:STO) — all at rock-bottom prices. We say he RE-purchased these shares because, in a prescient move, this sage sold off every oil stock he owned in May…back when oil was sitting atop $129 per barrel.

Richard Rainwater knew he would be leaving the party a bit early to the party — and probably miss the top — when he sold his oil investments back in spring. But he also knew that the gains from his $300 million invested in oil stocks and futures were in jeopardy.

“I just felt that America was not ready for $4 gas and we would see a pause here,” he told Time magazine in June.

Rainwater cashed in his profits just before oil’s peak in July. Now, he’s ready to do it all over again, spreading his millions across Exxon, ConocoPhillips and other big-name petroleum pushers.

Rainwater’s outlook is simple: Increased worldwide demand will continue to push the oil price up in the long term. Rainwater’s not alone, either. Analysts and industry experts — like oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens and OPEC President Chakib Khelil — have been making it perfectly clear…oil won’t be down too long.
On July 11, 2008, oil made a record ascent to $147.27 — a 123% jump in only 12 months. Since that momentous event, however, it has been all downhill for the energy sector. As the nearby chart illustrates, oil stocks (yellow line) have been closely tracking the downward trajectory of crude oil (blue line).

With oil sitting below $60 right now, oil aficionados like Pickens are bracing for the run-up to come. “The Saudis claim they have more oil; they don’t. The president wasted his time to go to Saudi Arabia, to say, ‘Give us more oil.’ They can’t give any more oil…they’re stacking up the money as fast as they can stack it up,” warned Pickens in an interview with CNBC.

The allure of oil is hard to refute. With finite supplies and unquenchable demand, it’s clear why many investment houses put oil above $200 in the near future. According to Pickens, it’s just a case of an oil-hungry economy overwhelming producers: “Eighty-five million barrels of oil a day is all the world can produce, and the demand is 87 million. It’s just that simple. It doesn’t have anything to do with the value of the dollar.”

Now is the time to buy oil. The second quarter of 2008 saw the largest drop in oil prices in 17 years. Now with OPEC slashing its production outlook for the rest of 2008 and 2009, it’s unclear just how long prices will be able to stay under $100…much less under $57.

Source: Surviving the Selloff