On Bookies And Economic Gurus
May 13th, 2008 | By Gary North | Category: Politics & EconomicsCONCLUSION
The American economy has two major engines of growth: the housing market (debt) and the auto market (debt). Both are in recession.
The service sector may withstand the crisis in the largest manufacturing sectors. It may smooth out the economy so that it does not fall into recession, as defined — meaning undefined — by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The head of the NBER, Martin Feldstein, thinks the American economy is headed into recession.
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Nevertheless, I am now ready to accept the counter-estimate of a bunch of faceless gamblers in Europe who have their own money on the line.
This is a case for optimism. It is not much of a case, but it’s the best anyone has offered so far this year.
I think the recession will arrive this year. I do not expect a severe recession. I also do not think the recovery will be strong or rapid. The slowdown will last for over a year. So will a depressed housing market. But I do take seriously Intrade’s assessment. We are less likely to have a recession than we were as recently as mid- April.
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Gary North, at the age of 25, was the youngest elected member of the Economists' National Committee on Monetary Policy. He has served as a senior staff member of the Foundation for Economic Education and as a research assistant to U.S. Congressman Ron Paul.
