With oil prices nearing $120 a barrel following supply outages in Nigeria and the North Sea, one oil price prediction is looking scarily accurate.

In December, Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald publicly forecast that oil prices will reach $187 a barrel within three years. In mid-March, he reiterated this projection.

According to Keith colleague at Money Morning, “Not only has this forecast continued to receive widespread play on energy — and investment– related web sites, we’re starting to see similar ‘me too’ predictions being made by some the energy sector’s heavyweight experts: Literally only days after Money Morning reiterated its forecast, Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs said that crude oil prices would reach $175 a barrel in the next two years.”

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Crude price forecasts can’t be accurate without understanding Saudi oil production. And the truth of the matter is that Saudi oil wells are drying up.

“Saudi Arabia has announced for 20 years in a row that they have 260 billion barrels of oil in reserve,” legendary investor Jim Rogers told Money Morning during an interview in Singapore last month. “It’s astonishing. The figure never goes up and it never goes down. They have produced dozens of millions — billions — of dollars of oil in that period of time.

“If you go to Saudi Arabia, you have to wonder: ‘How could this be? How could it be that every year for 20 years in a row, you always have 260 billion barrels of oil in reserve?’ The Saudis say: ‘You either believe us or you don’t.’ And that’s the end of the conversation.”