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Overconfidence Setting In at Google (GOOG)

Oct 17th, 2008 | By Andrew Snyder | Category: Stock Market Investing

Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) just beat earnings estimates. The numbers were jaw-dropping. Over the last three months the internet search-engine company earned $1.35 billion, or $4.92 a share. But Andrew Snyder says the party could soon be over for Google. Management at the company are overconfident…and that’s always a a recipe for disaster.

This from Today’s Financial News:

All across the nation, companies that rely on advertising dollars to stay in business are desperately searching for the nearest trash can. They are so nervous about what the next few months will bring that they already feel their stomachs twisting and convulsing. They know gut-wrenching vomiting is on the way.

But that is not the case at Google.

In fact, the only way the search-engine giant’s executives will be praying to the porcelain god is if they drank too much champagne while celebrating their company’s third-quarter earnings results.

While, Google did not flat-out destroy Wall Street expectations like many analysts are saying today, the company certainly dropped a few jaws. Over the last three months, Google earned $1.35 billion or $4.92 per share. Analysts were expecting just $4.72 per share.

The earnings surprise has Google’s share price on the move. As I write, shares of the Internet behemoth are up by over 5%. It is good news for shareholders as 2008 has not been a good year for them. Many have seen their positions in Google drop by over 50% since January.

Same old story

Company executives are saying prudent spending and proper management is the key to Google’s Q3 success. But that is what managers always say. In reality, it was the Web world’s addiction to the company’s products that created stellar results.

Let’s face it. Google is not just a Web search engine. It is the engine that runs the Web. More specifically, it is the company nearly all Web advertisers live and die by. If you want more clicks on your site, your first stop will be Google.

I congratulate the company on a great quarter, but I must wonder how long the jubilation will last.

When we look back in history at this storied company, will this earnings announcement mark the pivot point for the company’s downturn? After all, whenever a company thinks it is insulated from the global economy, it is always in for a rude awakening.

One sentence from Google’s CEO, Eric Schmidt, proves the company’s holier-than-thou mentality.

“The drama is in New York, not here,” he said. “It is business as usual at Google.”

You have got to be kidding me.

Unemployment lines are growing. Businesses are folding. Easy money is drying up. And consumers are locking their wallets, burying them under a tree, then burning the key AND the shovel. Many of the consumers hurt the most are the same so-called Web entrepreneurs Google depends on.

It is Schmidt’s brand of cockiness that will get this company in trouble. This last quarter may have went well. But beating the Street is not a long-term trend.

Google’s share price may rise in the short-term, but do not look to get rich off this one again.

Source: Earnings shocker: Google (GOOG) beats the Street


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By Andrew Snyder

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About the Author

Andrew is a contributor to Daily Reckoning Australia and Today's Financial News.

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Today's Financial News provides an independent and practical perspective on the U.S. and global investment markets. We provide you with a free, reliable, easy, up-to-date, and focused resource to help you make your financial decisions with commentary, interviews, recommendations, and video. Today's Financial News includes the analysis and opinions of those editors whom we have come to trust over the course of the years.

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