Market and regulatory forces are exerting pressure on higher gas prices, but whether or not the coming hikes will turn new car buyers to green autos still remains to be seen. With drillers curtailing new wells, and President-elect Barack Obama’s pick for energy secretary, Dr. Steven Chu, mouthing off about raising fossil-fuel surcharges, the weakness of the overall economy could deter consumers from paying the green-car premium at their local dealerships.

As of 2007, when gas prices were on the rise, the price premium for a hybrid (a gas-electric vehicle) was about $5,000 versus a conventional gas-burning vehicle. Even at those higher gas prices, the break even for a hybrid compared with gas was six to 10 years. Today, with gas down 2005-2006 levels, we can only estimate that the break even for a hybrid would be extended to 10-15 years.

These numbers don’t compute for a country in the throes of recession. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, as recently announced by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the number of unemployed people surged by 2.7 million, and the unemployment rate rose by 1.7 percentage points.

With people out of work, the argument that higher prices at the pump would translate into more sales of hybrid and electric cars is on the verge of crumbling. We can see it today. Gas prices at their lowest in years, but no one is spending money on anything — simply because they don’t have it. And it will likely take consumers years to get back on their feet.

The brilliant Dr. Chu, director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, has flogged the notion that it takes a combination of regulation and higher prices to rein in energy consumption. He advocates that the U.S. tax gas to the levels of Europe and Japan, forcing American consumers and the auto industry into a green lifestyle.

But the underlying assumption here is that consumers have money to spend, and that they’re willing to spend it on the green-car premium.

While the Big 3 surrender, waving the green flag in the halls of Congress, Detroit still hasn’t proven that it can make a red cent on small cars. And even if they can pad in a modest margin, they still find themselves in the quality battles they have consistently lost to German and Japanese car makers.

Now we’re seeing a return to higher gas prices as drillers cut back on exploration.

Oil and gas drilling activity in the U.S. in the wake of falling energy prices.

In its weekly accounting, Baker Hughes Inc. reported Friday that the number of drilling rigs working in the U.S. had fallen to 1,790, down 12% from the September peak and down 2% from the same time last year.

Given that rising gas prices are in the cards, it seems that consumers will now be forced to stay home rather than try to conserve fuel through green vehicles for years to come.