Round Two? $1.2 Trillion Corporate-Debt CDO Wipeout
Oct 22nd, 2008 | By Contrarian Profits | Category: Featured“Investors are taking losses of up to 90% in the $1.2 trillion market for collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) tied to corporate credit,” reports Bloomberg. Much of the losses have been triggered by the failure of Lehman Brothers and Icelandic bank.
The losses among banks, insurers and money managers may spark the next round of writedowns on CDOs after $660 billion in subprime-related losses. They may force lenders to post more reserves against losses after governments worldwide announced $3 trillion in financial-industry rescue packages since last month, according to Barclays Capital.
– Meanwhile, Reuters reports that U.S. banks will need more $700 billion in government cash injections to stay afloat because “banks cannot predict how many of their loans will sour because they do not know how much the economy will shrink, and forecasts of their future losses would only spook investors.”
– The numbers are certainly worrying:
By the numbers, the outlook for banks is troubling. U.S. commercial banks had about $1 trillion of capital as of the end of the second quarter.
That may sound like a lot, but Alpert estimates that banks globally could have a total of $1.25 trillion to $1.5 trillion of writedowns and losses from mortgages, of which perhaps $600 billion have already been recorded.
– Earnings season is upon us. Investors are reacting to the prospect of corporate losses. This from MarketWatch:
U.S. stock futures pointed to a second straight drop on Wednesday on concerns for earnings in a rocky economy, though Apple looked set to buck the trend after the consumer electronics giant was able to sell far more iPhones than expected.
S&P 500 futures fell 20.1 points to 939.20 and Dow industrial futures tumbled 166 points. Futures on the tech-concentrated Nasdaq 100 fell a more modest 15.5 points to 1,277.00.
– Global stock indexes also fell. This from Bloomberg:
The MSCI World Index lost 2.9 percent to 944.07 at 12:02 p.m. in London. The index has lost 40 percent this year and oil has tumbled more than 50 percent from its peak in July as concern deepened government bailouts to save the global banking system won’t avert a recession.
– In the currency markets, the British pound hit a five-year low against the dollar. The euro plumbed a 20-month low against the buck.
– Crude oil prices fell below $70 a barrel on growing fears of a global economic slowdown. OPEC’s scheduled meeting on Friday to discuss output cuts has so far failed to stem oil’s slide.
– A lot of investors are calling a bottom — at least a tentative bottom — in stocks.
– Addison Wiggan and Ian Mathias in The 5 Min. Forecast note that Jeremy Grantham, self-proclaimed “perma-bear” is turning bullish.
Grantham says the time has come for “hesitant and careful buying” of equities. Grantham, who also correctly called a global bubble among all asset classes last year, told his $120 billion worth of clients that this is the quarter to start buying.
“On Oct. 10, we can say that, with the S&P at 900, stocks are cheap in the U.S. and cheaper still overseas. We will, therefore, be steady buyers at these prices. Not necessarily rapid buyers — in fact, probably not — but steady buyers…
“History warns, though, that new lows are more likely than not.
“Fixed income has wide areas of very attractive, aberrant pricing. The dollar and the yen look OK for now, but the pound does not. Don’t worry at all about inflation. We can all save up our worries there for a couple of years from now and then really worry!
“Commodities may have big rallies, but the fundamentals of the next 18 months should wear them down to new two-year lows. As for us in asset allocation, we have made our choice: hesitant and careful buying at these prices and lower.”
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