Saturday, November 21st, 2009

Silicon Valley Turns Its Back On Green Energy

Jan 5th, 2009 | By Irwin Greenstein | Category: Oil Investment & Alternative Energy

As President-elect Obama toots his green-energy horn, the smart money in Silicon Valley is reversing its position on the moneymaking potential of wind, solar and geothermal power sources.

The pullback by Silicon Valley’s venture-capital elite is part of a complete overhaul of its investment criteria. The big surprise is that green investments are on the hit list along with other high-tech innovations — a reversal of the save-the-planet culture that has emerged in this Mecca of libertarian funding.

An article in today’s New York Times revealed that Silicon Valley VCs are now turning to shorter term opportunities versus the long-term returns that exemplify a healthy investment climate.

Alternative energy will get more critical assessment along with the Web 2.0 hype (think social networking), cell-phone advertising, massive enterprise software development and other long-term, big-ticket products.

Silicon Valley’s turn-around on green infrastructure comes at a time when the incoming Obama administration is pushing alternative energy as a means to create a new industry and reduce reliance on foreign oil.

Investors with an interest in alternative energy now have to pick sides. Our take on green energy is that it will eventually provide a profit, but the near-term prospects have always been questionable. In short, we always advised not to believe the media hype. Now it seems that the brains in Silicon Valley are in agreement.

Having personally worked in Silicon Valley for 15 years as a marketing professional, I know first hand that there’s probably no other investment community on the planet more attracted to hype. They create it, consume it and live and die by it.

Now, as Big Media jumps on Obama’s renewable energy bandwagon, Silicon Valley decides it’s time to get off. Why the change of heart? It has to do with two clashing trends.

For one thing, total investment in renewable energy in 2007 was $3.43 billion, up 50% over 2006, according to the Venture Power Report. Solar led with an immense $1.05 billion total.

At the same time, Silicon Valley produced just one IPO in 2008, the lowest number in more than two decades and down from an average of 28 IPOs a year since 1985.

The head-on collision of record-high alternative-energy investments and a single, crummy IPO means that Silicon Valley is not expecting to see a return on their green dollars any time soon.

The San Jose Mercury News, the bible of Silicon Valley, reported on Dec. 26, 2008, “The ugliest recession in decades is expected to keep the national IPO market frozen through at least the first half of 2009 and maybe longer, according to several venture capitalists and analysts.”

So despite President-elect Obama’s promise to spend $150 billion over the next decade to promote renewable energy, Silicon Valley is saying “Show me the money.”

Richard Nixon tried energy independence and failed. Jimmy Carter promoted synthetic fuels and failed. Bush promoted biofuels and failed.

Now President-elect Obama thinks he can succeed where his predecessors have stumbled badly. Maybe he will make it work. But it’s very possible that the libertarian culture in Silicon Valley has sobered up, realizing that the government really doesn’t have a great track record of picking winners for investors.

As always, if you’re into alternative energy for the long haul have yourself a ball. If you want to keep the lights on, put your money elsewhere.


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More on this topic (What's this?)
Hawaii’s Renewable Energy Revolution
Renewable Energy Grants
Read more on Renewable Energy, Obama's Presidential Policy at Wikinvest
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By Irwin Greenstein

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