Look no further than Singapore if you want forecast the economic health of emerging markets in Asia. And based on newly revised numbers from one the region’s crown jewels, investors won’t see much profits coming out of Asia any time soon.

Singapore’s declining forecasts raises questions about the government’s competence (or propaganda) and the duration of the global recession.

It was the second time in three weeks that Singapore lowered expectations. Whether this is government ineptitude or an ever-deepening economic sinkhole, the results are still the same for investors. If you’re already in Singapore, do you bail or hold? And if you’re not in Singapore, well, good for you.

Because yesterday, the city-state of Singapore said its economy should shrink by 2% to 5% as the year unfolds. It’s yet one more downward prediction from just three weeks ago, when the government predicted a worst-case decline of 2% and possible growth of 1%.

Now, with yesterday’s numbers, the government is blaming increasingly gloomy forecasts for important manufacturing exports such as electronics and chemicals.
That translated into a 4.1% decline in manufacturing last year.

From a global perspective, Singapore’s importance belies its size. Singapore is a major trade and finance hub. Economists consider it a leading indicator for Asia.

Singapore announced on Wednesday that GDP shrank at a seasonally adjusted annualized pace of 16.9% in the October-December period. Earlier this month, Singapore estimated its economy shrank in Q4 at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 12.5%. It was the biggest quarterly contraction since 1976.

The bad news is considered a harbinger of deteriorating numbers expected to come out of China, Japan and South Korea later this week. If you consider these emerging countries the proverbial canary in the coal mine, then it’s time to grab your hard hats and scramble the heck out of there.