Stock Market Predictions: Positive Spin from CNN
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CNN has made some wonderfully optimistic stock market predictions today.
Of course, upbeat stock market predictions is what CNN and the rest of the mainstream financial press are all about — making Americans feel that all is well in the world, that the stock market and the US economy are ultimately benign forces, always and forever about to pick up.
Oddly, given some of the more pessimistic and, dare we say it, more informed predictions about the state of the US economy, CNN’s has made every effort to put a positive spin on its market predictions, assuring worried Americans that “it’s a certainty that the economy, the housing markets and the stock market have to bounce back sooner or later.” The piece continues:
If you could see that rebound coming, not only could you rest easier about everything from your job to your retirement, you could move forward confidently on all those financial plans you’ve put on hold until the way seemed clear.
You could think about trading up to a bigger home or downsizing to a place that better suits your needs. And even though you’ve stood unwavering by your investment strategy as the stock market tumbled — and you have, haven’t you? — you could feel good once again about putting your money in something besides a chickenhearted money-market fun.
Trading up to a bigger home? Now, there’s a truly contrarian strategy: getting more up to your neck in debt in the midst of a housing meltdown.
Two upbeat CNN predictions to watch out for: a summer rally for the US stock market and job losses will stabilize.
Positive sentiment is not just confined to CNN, however. This from Gary North in The Daily Reckoning:
“I monitor a chart on a website that almost no economic forecaster pays any attention to whatsoever. This chart has indicated a remarkable shift toward economic optimism. It has indicated that the American economy will not fall into recession this year. This shift has taken place in the last three weeks.
“The problem with the chart and the site is that, by design, no explanations are ever offered. There is no theory of why the economy will or will not fall into recession. That is because the site is a gambling site. You pays your money and you take your chances.
“The site is Intrade. It is a web-based site. It is run from Dublin. If the owner ever sets foot on U.S. soil, he will be arrested, tried, convicted, and sent to jail. But he can afford to stay out of the United States. He is a very rich bookie.
“The site allows gamblers to make bets on future events to take place or not take place during a defined time frame. One of these listed events is recession in the U.S. in 2008. As recently as mid-April, betting was over 70% that there will be a recession this year. Then, without warning, the odds turned the other way. Today, the odds are 27%.