Sunday, November 22nd, 2009

Stocks Are Set to Rocket in September

Sep 2nd, 2009 | By Wayne Burritt | Category: Stock Market Investing

There’s no question that the past year-and-a-half has been disastrous for investors. Since last March, the S&P 500 has lost nearly a quarter of its values, and many are still too scared to put their money back in the market in the market. But according to some of the best investors in the world, now is exactly when you should turn your eye to stocks…

Super-investor Warren Buffet once said that his investment philosophy was to buy stocks when others were fearful, and to be fearful when others were buying. Right now isn’t the time to be fearful along with the herd; it’s time to stock up on stocks.

As I predicted earlier in the year, right now the market is zooming higher like there’s no tomorrow.

Let’s begin with this chart of the S&P 500, a good proxy for the broader U.S. stock market…

As you can see, shares of U.S. companies have been soaring. In fact, from a low of 667 on March 6 to a recent high of 1033, the market is up a mind-boggling 366 points.

Translation: U.S. stocks have improved a whopping 54.9% in just a matter of months.

The fact is the market made positive moves long before the economy was showing a ton of life. And if you don’t jump in early, you’re likely to miss the best moves.

And now, with the 960 level for the S&P 500 — the top of the resistance range — clearly out of the way, U.S. stocks are now setting their sights on the next big resistance level of 1313, set way back in August of last year.

Now, getting there won’t be a straight line: 300-plus point moves don’t usually happen like that. So there will likely be the occasional, healthy pullback along the way.

But there’s no doubt: From a technical perspective, the 1313 level on the S&P 500 is the next order of business.

And don’t forget: When we make it back to this level, we’re getting very close to the pre-recession highs of 1500-plus. While that’s by no means a done deal, there’s little doubt we’re headed in the right direction at a solid pace.

But it’s not just the market’s technical factors that have me jazzed. The fundamentals are on the right track, too…

Fundamentals Improving Big Time!

For a while now, I’ve said that the housing market got us into this mess and the housing market will get us out.

Well, the facts are in: Housing is beginning to show consistent signs of life.

Sales of existing single-family homes jumped 7.2% in July compared to the month earlier. That’s the largest increase since the National Association of Realtors began tracking data way back in 1999. Plus, it marked the fourth monthly increase in a row.

In other words, the improvement in the real estate market isn’t just a flash in the pan. It’s here to stay.

But that’s not all. Compared to July 2008, home sales were up a solid 5%. That’s the first year-over-year gain since November 2005. And that means the real estate market is showing significant legs, even when dealing with tough year-ago comparisons.

Another positive: The improvement in home sales is geographically broad-based. Take a look at this chart…

As you can see, home sales improved across the board during July. In fact, they’re up 13% in the Northeast, 11% in the Midwest and 7% in the South. Only the West region showed a small 2% decrease.

And it’s not just the real estate market that’s showing solid fundamental action. The broader economy is looking good, too. According to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke…

“Fears of financial collapse have receded substantially… After contracting sharply over the past year, economic activity appears to be leveling out, both in the U.S. and abroad, and the prospects for a return to growth in the next year appear good.”

And he’s not alone. According a survey of economists by the Wall Street Journal, 28 of 45 respondents say the recession is already behind us, and 16 say it will end by December of this year.

I don’t know about you, but that’s a hugely bullish factor to me. But there’s more: GDP forecasts are also on the rise. Take a look…

As you can see, economists are calling for a big improvement in GDP over the next year. In fact, even though GDP contracted 6.4% and 1% in the first and second quarters of this year respectively, analysts are looking for improvements for next four consecutive quarters in the 2.1% to 2.8% range.

Bottom-line: Stock prices are zooming higher and are now cleared to take out levels not seen since August of last year. In addition, strong fundamental factors — including an improving real estate market, a huge call for an end to the recession and solid GDP projections — are adding solid foundation to more price surges. And no matter how you slice it, that’s positive for your portfolio.

Best wishes,
Wayne Burritt


Source: Stocks Are Set to Rocket in September


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By Wayne Burritt

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Wayne Burritt is a contributor to the Penny Sleuth.

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The Penny Sleuth is free e-letter from Tom Bulford who shares his innermost thoughts, stories, projections and opiniosn on the UK's most exciting share market. Each issue reveal what every investor ought to know before investing in the small-cap market.

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