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Subprime’s Latest Victim: Municipal Bonds

Jun 2nd, 2008 | By Contrarian Profits | Category: Featured, Financial News

Subprime has found a new victim, reports Bloomberg: municipal bonds. Already, the amount of municipal bonds that have defaulted this year is three times that of 2007.

So far this year, $736 million in municipal bonds have defaulted. That doesn’t necessarily mean they didn’t pay investors; they may have just drawn down reserves. That’s what happens just before they stop making payments to bondholders.

During all of 2007, only $226 million in municipal bonds defaulted, according to the May edition of the “Distressed Debt Securities” newsletter, published in Miami Lakes, Florida.

“This is peanuts, at least so far,” says contrarian blogger Mish Shedlock. “However, Ambac (ABK) and MBIA (MBI), both of which are the equivalent of the walking dead, are staring at more nails in their coffins should municipal bond debt head south in a big way.”

“For the most part, however, the subprime crisis is past its inflection point,” says Eric Roseman in the Offshore A-Letter. “What matters now is how and when other credit indicators normalize.”

But Eric is highly dubious that credit markets have bottomed.

Sub-prime is now largely history. But other segments of the credit spectrum that have a far more profound impact on the American consumer are just beginning to unravel.

The consumer is now threatened by a liquidity crisis. Housing values continue to heavily contract and revolving credit installment debt is becoming harder to secure.

The culprit is less the write-downs themselves and more the virtual “shutdown” in the securitization market. At its height, the securitization market provided 66% of household borrowings in the first quarter of 2007. Without this market, consumer credit losses may be far worse than currently estimated.

Auto loans, personal loans, mortgage loans, and other segments of installment debt are still contracting. Auto loans are especially vulnerable with defaults recently hitting a 10-year high of 3.4% in March. And more Americans are dropping their house keys to their local lenders as housing values continue to plunge below the cost of their mortgages.


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