Arjun Murti is getting the last laugh.

And just who is Arjun Murti? He’s the Goldman Sachs analyst who called for an oil “super spike” more than three years ago.

When Murti first predicted oil could reach a $105 a barrel, way back in March of 2005, oil was trading below $60. The prediction was scorned and laughed at, even as it caused a bump in crude prices… some thought it was just a Goldman Sachs publicity stunt.

But it was no stunt. Murti’s call was dead right, and all the naysayers were wrong. For the past three years, many have been predicting that the bottom would fall out for oil prices. As crude passed through each new threshold — $70, $80, $90, $100 — there were loud drumbeats for how the price of crude would collapse “any day now.”

There are plenty of reasons why this hasn’t happened. The three biggest, in very simple terms, are (1) rising global demand, (2) a steady erosion of supply, and (3) the slow demise of the dollar.

Now that oil has broken above $120 for the first time, the naysayers — who have been wrong for more than three years now — are still calling for it to fall apart.

And as for Arjun Murti, the guy who predicted all this… he now says $200 oil is a possibility in the next 12 to 24 months.

Justice Litle

Editorial Director, Taipan Publishing Group

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