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Surprise Rejection of Bailout Causes Record Decline in U.S. Stocks

Sep 30th, 2008 | By William Patalon III | Category: Financial News, Politics & Economics

In a move that will reverberate from Wall Street to Main Street, the U.S. House of Representatives yesterday (Monday) voted to reject a compromise $700 billion banking-bailout bill, an act of stunning defiance that eradicated $1.2 trillion in shareholder wealth as U.S. stocks endured their biggest one-day point loss in history.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average Index plunged 777.68 points, or 6.98%, to close at 10,365.45. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index plummeted 199.61 points, or 9.14%, to close at 1,983.73. And the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 Index plunged 106.59 points, or 8.79%, to finish the day at 1,106.42.

All sectors were gutted, but energy and financials were among the hardest hit, plummeting 11.02% and 10.55%, respectively.

“My outrage over this just continues to grow,” Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald said in an interview late yesterday. “This just didn’t have to happen.”

U.S. share prices sold off sharply once it appeared the House measure would go down to defeat and continued to slump as the afternoon progressed when that appearance became a reality.

Financial markets worldwide had slumped even before the House voting began; Hong Kong’s blue-chip Hang Seng Index plunged 4.3%, while the Paris-based CAC40, London’s FTSE 100 and in Paris and London they were down 3 percent. Hong Kong’s blue-chip Hang Seng Index plunged 4.3%, nose-diving 801.41 points to close at 17,880.70.

By 3:15 p.m. EDT, the Dow had fallen more than 5%. House leaders backing the bailout deal kept the voting period open for more than 40 minutes past the allotted time, pointing to the damage being done to the U.S. stock indices in an effort to convert some of the “No” votes to votes of approval - to no avail, The New York Times reported.

There may have been some optimism - reflected by the close of markets on Friday - that that whatever deal might come out of the Congressional-compromise efforts being hammered out over the weekend would be better than what had previously been on the table, said R. Shah Gilani, a former hedge fund manager who is now a Money Morning contributing editor, and who last week crafted an alternate bailout plan that he presented to readers of this global investment news service. Then, when markets overseas saw what was actually forthcoming, the markets in Asia and Europe sold off as a way of effectively voting “No” to the bailout plan. When the U.S. markets fell at the open, it was as if investors were telegraphing that the deal was doomed, Gilani said.

“What the markets reflected was a ‘no-confidence’ vote in the rescue plan - period,” Gilani said. “When the House [of Representatives] vote finally came in, the resulting deeper drop evidenced despair in the continuing politicization and shotgun to specific problems that, for all clear minds, can readily be neutralized by targeted action. Either way, this was never going to be a positive day for the markets.”

The vote against the measure was 228 to 205, with 133 Republicans joining 95 Democrats in opposition to a legislative measure that President George W. Bush and Congressional leaders of both parties claim is crucial if the country is to avert a total meltdown of the U.S. financial system. The bill was backed by 140 Democrats and 65 Republicans, The New York Times reported. Proponents of the bailout bill promised to do their best to bring another rescue plan up for consideration in as short a period as possible - perhaps as soon as tomorrow (Wednesday) or Thursday, although there were no plans to do so as of yesterday evening.

“It’s pretty much a nightmare,” Michael Nasto, the senior trader at U.S. Global Investors Inc. (GROW), told Bloomberg News. “This is the worst we’ve seen it since the credit mess started. Until we know exactly why they didn’t pass it, we’re going to be selling off for a while.”

The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX index, hit a record high of 46.72 yesterday. The VIX is a measure of “investor sentiment and market volatility.” Using real time options prices, it is often used as a measure of fear in the market. The higher the VIX goes, the more fear in the market as investors utilize options to hedge positions.

Given the panic unfolding on Wall Street yesterday, a high VIX reading doesn’t seem that surprising. But what is surprising is that historically, the S&P 500 Index has performed well after such high fear-fueled days.

“Since 1990 there have been four other periods where the VIX closed above 40,” Bespoke Investment Group said in a research report released yesterday. “Following each period, the S&P 500’s performance was mixed the next day and week, but over the following month and quarter, the S&P 500 has had consistently positive returns.”

Commodity Markets

Commodity results were mixed as the equity crash had opposite effects on oil and gold.

Concern that the weakening economy would severely hamper demand sent oil futures diving. Crude oil for November delivery dropped $10.52, a decline of 9.8%, to close at $96.37 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the second-largest one-day drop in dollar terms, according to FactSet Research data.

Meanwhile, investors seeking a safe place to invest went running for the yellow metal. Gold for December delivery gained $5.90, or 0.7%, to close at $894.40 per ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, MarketWatch reported.

It would be hard to invent a scenario that could be more bullish for gold than right now,” Mark O’Byrne, executive director at Gold and Silver Investment, told MarketWatch. “Bailout or no bailout, gold is going a lot higher due to a broad based flight to quality.”

In the bond market, yields on both the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury notes fell as investors poured funds into the safer Treasury Market in yet another example of the current flight to quality.

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Bailout Talks Do Not Appear to Be Going Well
Bailout Bill Passed by House
Bail Out, not Bailout
Read more on 2008 Financial Crisis at Wikinvest

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By William Patalon III

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About the Author

William Patalon IIIWilliam (Bill) Patalon III is the Managing Editor and Senior Research Analyst for Money Morning, and is also the Managing Editor for The Money Map Report. Patalon's work has appeared in Kiplinger's personal finance magazine, USA Today, and The South China Morning Post, among other publications.

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Money Morning is the leading source of investment research on the global markets. Its free daily service provides news, research, investment opportunities and insights on international investing -- most of it well before it appears in the mainstream financial media.

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