Another of our favorite underground investors Whitney Tilson of T2 Partners is sounding the alarm on US Treasurys. He is also pessimistic about retail investors beating the market on their own.

This from a recent interview with Steve Forbes, which you can watch in full on Forbes.com

But then even buying Treasuries, you have the risk of under-performing inflation at today’s rate that you’re getting on Treasuries, right? Certainly with today’s yield, relative to the stock market, I would think Treasuries would be a terrible investment. In fact, we’re short an ETF that owns 20-year Treasuries because we think rates are going up. My point, though, is you can do one of two things.

Generally speaking, to the extent that you can, you can own bonds and stocks, and then within stocks you can pick stocks on your own or you can own a mutual fund or an index fund. I think that picking stocks and doing better than the market over time is very, very, very difficult. Most professionals can’t do it and most individual investors can’t do it. Human beings are hardwired to do precisely the wrong thing, which is buy things when they’re high and popular, and sell them when they’re low and unpopular. And of course to be a successful investor you have to do the complete opposite. I think most average people, who don’t have the time and the training to pick stocks, would be better off in mutual funds or index funds.

Tilson is right that we are “hardwired” to buy high and sell low. That’s why here at Notes we follow only contrarian investors – those that take advantage of the crowd’s uncanny ability to do the wrong thing when it comes to their money. As our commodities investing guru Rick Rule puts it, “You’re either a contrarian or a victim.” Amen to that…