Don’t look now, but history tends to repeat itself.

Also, consider the fundamental picture. We have rallied 48% from the March lows on the back of what? Good earnings? Good employment figures? Good spending figures? Expanding GDP? No.

We have rallied based on one of the largest and most concerted propaganda campaigns ever waged, supported by government stimulus. But no government can stimulate forever. The bottom line is this, if Americans do not return to work, THERE IS NO RECOVERY. Memorize this line. Post it on your refrigerator, your mirror, your dashboard – wherever!

So maybe now you’re asking yourself, “Aren’t the unemployment numbers getting better?”

Well, let’s see…

Verizon (NYSE:VZ) – 8,000 jobs cut
Motorola (NYSE:MOT) – 7,000
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) – 5,000
Untied Technologies (NYSE:UTX) – 8,000
HSBC (NYSE:HBC) – 6,100
Anglo American (LON:AAL) – 19,000
Avon (LON:AVON) – 2,500
Goodyear Tire (NYSE:GT) – 5,000
GM (NYSE:GRM) – 10,000
Nissan Motors – 20,000
Panasonic (NYSE:PC) – 15,000
PNC Bank (NYSE:PNC) – 5,800

Many of these will be released in the third and fourth quarters. No doubt there are plenty more we haven’t heard from yet. Frankly, I couldn’t list the thousands of companies and millions of jobs lost in this write-up. That’s just a sampling. But let’s get to some hard and fast figures.

According to Seeking Alpha, 13 million Americans will lose their benefits by years’ end. So if unemployment claims are falling, people must be getting back to work. Right?

WRONG!

They are exhausting their benefits. There are 30 million people in the United States on food stamps. There are only 200 million working-age Americans (age 15-64). Is there any wonder why the Administration is NOW saying they will have to raise taxes on the middle class to fund their programs?

Unemployment has been estimated by many good economists as being around 20%. Unfortunately for these people, their nanny-government lifeboats are slowly running out of air.

Those 3 million people who lost their jobs in the second half of last year? Once you factor in their dependants, that equals 10 million people who have no income and no savings.

And how about the other 4 million others who lost their jobs in the first half of this year? They will be next. The numbers get so depressing, I hate to even count them up.

As I have said before, unemployed people don’t spend money. They don’t buy technologies, or durables, or even pay their mortgage. Bankruptcies are up 600% in this recent downturn. And that includes the time after Congress affected new rules to make bankruptcy harder.

So who is going to pay for anything when they are struggling to buy groceries?

If the equity averages are already rallying on the back of these horrible stats, there is nowhere to go but down when the real truth sets in.

And we have seen this corollary frequently in recent months. When stocks and risk assets fall, so do the currencies, and the dollar rises. We are a long way from being out of the woods on this retracement.

So why do I cite all this doom and gloom about the United States? Believe me, there’s plenty more to go around. Because the fact of the matter is this: When these chickens do come home to roost, we will see another gut-wrenching breathtaking sell-off in equities, which will be followed by currencies. We have not seen the end of this yet.

While some are talking of a recovery, others are talking about a possible double-dip recession – and I’m reasonably sure we are in for a “multi-dip.” It is hard to be bullish on the dollar for any reason, but if the market drops again, which I believe it will, funds will rush right back to the dollar (and the yen).

So far, we have seen range-bound trading in the recent months as currencies search for direction. This week the big news was the US GDP. Risk currencies rallied on the back of it, but for 24 hours they have remained flat as there were no buyers to move it higher.

Also, the market got awfully jittery on the release of the consumer spending news yesterday. The manufacturing euphoria expended itself, and now we find out that personal income has dropped 1.4%, the biggest fall in four years. Inflation-adjusted spending fell 0.1%. The real dark spots in the economy have started showing back up. The stimulus has worked its way and done its best, but its effects are now negligible. Even though there are signs of a “recovery,” it isn’t going to be one without the consumer. If he’s exhausted his means of spending, or is just afraid to put out any money, the recovery trade will be doomed. And that means dollar strength once again.

But for now, we will have to trade with what we have. It is hard to argue with the markets, even with the most compelling of reasons. A person may as well try to stop an ocean wave from breaking onshore.

And as we look ahead, we must always be mindful of what may be. As numerous talking heads were saying on Tuesday of this week, “We have turned the corner… things are going to get better – if they don’t get worse!”

Regards,

Bill Jenkins

Source: Illogical Optimisim

European shares hit a one-week trough on Thursday, led lower by banks, as poor corporate results and fresh signs of deteriorating global economic outlook overshadowed a compromise deal on a massive U.S. stimulus plan.

By 0949 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was down 1.5 percent to 791.78 points after falling as low as 787.14. The index is down 4.8 percent this year after plunging 45 percent in 2008.

Banks were among the top fallers on the index, with Commerzbank falling 5.4 percent, Credit Agricole down 3.5 percent and Societe Generale declining 3.4 percent.

Energy shares were also under pressure as crude prices eased to trade below $36 a barrel — down 75 percent from a record high near $150 just seven months ago. BP , Royal Dutch Shell , Repsol and Tullow Oil shed between 0.3 and 1.3 percent.

Governments are using “historically strong medicines to try to revive a patient that is looking very weak at the moment and so far almost everything that has been used has failed to work,” said Henk Potts, strategist at Barclays Stockbrokers.

Investors hoped the measures would support in the long term, but there was a lot of nervousness before they saw the results of the U.S. government’s efforts on the economy, he added.

The pessimism over a compromise deal on a $789 billion U.S. package, which helped Wall Street shares to gain overnight, evaporated after investors scrutinised a raft of disappointing corporate results and macroeconomic data.

Figures showed Japanese wholesale prices dropped in the year to January, the first drop in five years, bringing the world’s second-largest economy closer to its second bout of deflation in a decade as the economy slipped deeper into recession.

Earnings results also hurt sentiment.

Swiss engineering group ABB posted an 88 percent fall in fourth-quarter net profit, oil major Total reported an 8 percent drop in profits due to lower oil prices and output, while banking group KBC booked a $3.4 billion loss due to writedowns.

RIO TINTO STAKE

“Asides from the stimulus package, the big news has been the large stake in Rio Tinto (RIO) being sold to Chinalco,” said Andrew Turnbull, senior sales manager at ODL Securities.

“The deal is said to be the largest overseas deal by the Chinese and really does show how desperate for cash Rio Tinto has become,” he said.

Rio Tinto will sell $12.3 billion in asset stakes to Chinalco and raise a further $7.2 billion by issuing China’s top aluminium maker convertible notes to cut debt, the global miner said. Rio shares were up 1.2 percent.

The negative market sentiment spread to other sectors such as mining, electricity, telecommunications and retail.

Miners, struggling due to falling prices and slowing demand of metals, fell again. BHP Billiton , Anglo American (AAL), Xstrata (AXTA) and Antofagasta (ANTO) fell between 0.8 percent and 3.3 percent.

Among electricity companies, Enel dropped 2 percent and Renewable Energy slipped 1.4 percent.

France’s EDF fell 7 percent after it posted a dip in 2008 core earnings, hit by a larger-than-expected 1.2 billion euro ($1.55 billion) charge related to French regulated tariffs.

Britain’s BT Group dropped more than 5 percent after its core earnings slumped 9 percent in the third quarter and pre-tax profits slumped 81 percent.

Among gainers, French carmaker Renault rose 5.9 percent after it dropped its once sacrosanct 2009 profit targets and said it would focus on cutting inventories this year.

Across Europe, the FTSE 100 index, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 were down 1.1-1.9 percent.

LONDON, Feb 12 (Reuters)

This industry, born of the 1970s energy crisis, now produces about a third of the world’s oil output. But back in the ‘40s and ‘50s, it was still a frontier…a pipe dream, to many.

Geologists today know of some 115 billion barrels of oil and 633 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves in the Outer Continental Shelf surrounding America’s coastlines alone. There are some 450 operating platforms in the North Sea today, and several thousands in the Gulf of Mexico. It is a trillion-dollar-per-year industry, plus or minus.

Thanks to the mother of inventions, offshore drillers have overcome many obstacles (mostly political). And in the process, they have unwittingly laid the technical and legal groundwork for a whole new industry…

Until recently, offshore drilling had gotten a bad rap from both political parties. The ban on drilling was first made by George H.W. Bush and has stood until his son recently proposed repealing the ban.

Both candidates in the upcoming presidential election had been opposed to offshore drilling but have changed their stances in the recent weeks. Republican John McCain has stood by the president and called for an increase in offshore drilling. McCain attempted to drive yet another wedge between himself and his democratic rival.

But even Democratic Sen. Barack Obama has eased off his stance against drilling. Obama stated last week that he would support offshore drilling as part of a comprehensive energy plan. It seems that both sides of the aisle have felt the pressure of rising fuel prices. The winner in these new political concessions will clearly be the offshore drillers themselves.

So while the toughest obstacle is finally cleared for drillers, there could be a flood of opportunities made for investors.

There is one company I’m looking at. It is this industry’s leader. Its founder led the group that co-discovered the 40 million ounce Lihir gold mine in Papua New Guinea (put into production during the late ‘90s). He is still a founding director of Lihir Gold (NASDAQ:LIHR) and a fellow of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy. He surrounds himself with old mining hands, including former Placer Dome and BHP executives.

I bet you’ve already figured out that we’re talking about a mineral deposit.

What’s so new about that, right?

Get this: It’s under the sea. Yes, we are about to see the first major startup in the deep-sea mining industry. If it’s anything like the boom in offshore drilling, you’ll want to be there.

The world’s largest gold companies together own over one-third of this company.

These players are so bullish on the prospects of this industry they all entered into non-competing and anti-dilution clauses just to get a tiny foothold… Teck Cominco (NYSE:TCK) and Anglo American (LON:AAL) have paid millions of dollars for a mere option to participate in a potential future joint venture. And millions more in direct investments.

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Anglo and Teck’s investments total more than $50 million.

Placer Dome alone spent more than $13 million earning a joint venture interest with this company.

And in 2006, shortly after Barrick (NYSE:ABX) took Placer Dome over, it decided to convert Placer’s JV interests into a 9.6% equity interest (which has since diluted to less than 5%) at a deemed price of $2.86 per share.

But wait, you may wonder, just how new is this?

Outside of a few dredging operations for diamonds off the African coast in recent years, the extraction of minerals from the seafloor is virtually untapped. No one has mined the seafloor, though geologists have long known of its potential…

For a long while, they thought that these minerals were deposited as sediments from eroding deposits on nearby land. But it was later realized that the source of massive sulfides on land was the ocean, and that hydrothermal events beneath the ocean seafloor precipitated into a mineral deposit upon contact with the water. In fact, in 1985, seafloor massive sulfide systems were discovered off the coast of Papua New Guinea by a research vessel at a site claimed by our company.

Given a few modifications to technology produced by the offshore oil industry over the last few decades, the outcome of a new international treaty on deep-sea mining in the ‘90s, advances made by our company toward the establishment of the first-ever deep-sea mine this decade and the growing worldwide demand for scarce mineral resources, the time is right for this industry to emerge…and the deep sea mining profits should follow!

Regards,
Ed Bugos

Source: Top Profits at the Bottom of the Ocean

FIFA and UEFA (that’s Fédération Internationale de Football Association and Union of European Football Associations to non-football folks) are becoming increasingly vocal about South Africa economic woes.

You see, South Africa’s having a bunch of problems this year, and some authorities are saying the problems aren’t going away anytime soon. Here’s what I mean…

– GDP growth came in a 2.1% (compared to expected growth of 4%) in Q1 2008.
– Inflation hit a five-year high of 10.1% year-on-year in April (interest rates were raised to 11.5%).
– Unemployment is incredibly high (at between 20% and 40% – that’s official vs. unofficial numbers).

But for the soccer organizations perhaps the worst drawback is South Africa’s undependable electricity supply.

In January 2008, Eskom Holdings Limited (ESKAY:OTC), South Africa’s state-owned electricity company, began cutting power exports because of shortages at home. Since then, reports have been flooding in that Eskom is “load shedding” in South Africa’s middle-class suburbs. Load shedding is abruptly cutting power when demand exceeds supply.

Those power problems could persist for the next 10 years, and that’s precisely what FIFA and UEFA are concerned about. Of course, this problem is not strictly isolated to soccer.

It could lead to job cuts at South Africa’s massive mines, and companies like Gold Fields, Inc. (GFI: NYSE) and Anglo American (AAUK:NASDAQ) could be cutting jobs and losing production. And that’s been leading to social shake-ups and as many as 68 people have died in socio-economic violence.

South Africa’s stock market has been riding high. In fact, it has more than tripled over the last few years.

But the bad news out of Cape Town is about to bring it all crashing down… However, as with most crisis situations, there are hidden opportunities. (In fact, savvy investors are already positioning themselves for a quick 129% gain.)

South Africa is fighting to dispel rumors that it could actually lose the 2010 World Cup. Unfortunately, Eskom’s load-shedding incidents are occurring at least four times a week and are starting to decimate South Africa’s economy.

Cape Town had been warned that these power shortages were coming. Eskom had informed President Thabo Mbeki that it needed more investment dollars to increase capacity. But the government didn’t listen. Now, South Africa is sinking… and the problem is getting worse.

Anglo American (LON: AAL), the world’s largest producer of platinum, says prices will soar by 50% due in part to power supply problems in South Africa. Platinum production could fall by 200,000 ounces this year, wiping out $397.4 million in revenue.

Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI) says that South African gold production could fall as much as a staggering 25% drop because of these power cuts. The industry would have to cut nearly 7,000 jobs.

To top it all off, Eskom is trying to increase its tariffs by 53% to help fund massive investment projects to increase its generating capacity. But the government is broke, and the South African Reserve Bank was forced to raise interest rate to 11.5%.

This is just the beginning. Eskom has confessed that South Africa will face power shortages for the next five years.

Bottom line: South Africa’s power problems are crushing the South African economy and the entire country is going to feel the pain.

GDP growth came in at half its expected rate in the first quarter of 2008. At the same time, inflation hit a five-year high. And worst of all, unemployment is at a startling 20%!

With no end in sight, foreign investment is bolting from South Africa… and the stock market gains of the last few years are about to implode.

Take a look at the chart below. It’s from Sara Nunnally, editor of Taipan Trader.

According to Sara’s research, the South African market has crossed into dangerous territory. It will not only likely fall… it will tumble hard!

Now if you’ll recall I mentioned that buried in every crisis is a hidden opportunity. Sara has isolated a safe, simple investment that will soar as South Africa’s market tumbles. In fact, Sara expects it will return a 129% gain.

This investment is easy to buy. In fact, you can own it without sending a single dime overseas.

Now here’s the thing: Sara’s research is spot on. Most every time she makes a prediction about an event happening in a foreign country, it comes true. She is the group’s most knowledgeable source on building wealth through foreign markets.

While Sara has already recommended this investment to her Taipan Trader readers, it’s not too late for you to participate in these gains.

For more details, please visit the Taipan Trader web site.

–Sandy Franks

Source: Upcoming World Cup Reveals That South Africa is in Shambles: 129% Profit Strike on the Horizon!