The Tokyo-based company lost $1.1 billion (98.9 billion yen) last year, and it expects to lose another $1.4 billion (120 billion yen) in its fiscal year ending March 31.  That would be Sony’s first back-to-back annual loss since the company went public in 1958.

And despite renewed optimism within its ranks, Sony still faces a plethora of challenges, including a questionable direction, cost-conscious consumers and a strengthening yen.

The onetime bellwether of the electronics industry has seen its market share crumble in almost every category: Nintendo Co. Ltd.’s (OTC ADR: NTDOY) Wii game console has supplanted Sony’s PlayStation brand, Sony has given up its lead in portable media players to Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPod, and Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. is now the world’s largest seller of televisions.

Hoping to turn the tide, Sony earlier this year underwent a major restructuring with the goal of unifying its hardware, software and entertainment businesses. The idea is to leverage its growing catalog of networked products with the software and services its sells, such as Internet-enabled televisions that enable consumers to watch Sony movies through an online connection.

“Consumers want products that are networked, multi-functional and service-enhanced utilizing open technologies, and user experiences that are rich, shared and, increasingly, green,” said Sony Chief Executive Officer Howard Stringer. “[The restructuring] will now make it possible for all of Sony’s parts to work together to assume a position of worldwide leadership and, together, achieve great things.”

Doubts Cast Shadow Over Efforts

While analysts agree with Sony’s loss estimate for this year, some doubt its restructuring efforts – which included thousands of layoffs and a streamlining of manufacturing in the – will truly pay off.

“They were hit fairly early by the downturn and have moved quicker than some competitors to restructure, but it remains to be seen if those moves will pay off,” Hideyuki Ookoshi, who helps oversee $365 million at Chiba-Gin Asset Management in Tokyo, told Bloomberg News. “The problem with Sony is it doesn’t know what it wants to be: Is it a game company, a consumer-electronics maker, a financial-services provider? There’s no direction.”

Operating income at Sony’s financial services division was propelled more than 57% by a boost in its life insurance revenue in the company’s fiscal first quarter ended June 30. But this non-core business won’t be the catalyst that brings Sony out of the red, according to Makoto Haga, president of Tokyo-based hedge fund Wing Asset Management Co.

“Profit at the financial unit helped Sony narrow a loss, but investors don’t appreciate that,” Haga told Bloomberg. “I can’t see any engine that drives its recovery and the company’s prospects are dim.”

As it stands now, CEO Stringer’s cost-cutting efforts have only gone so far, and investors like Yasuhiko Hirakawa want the British-born executive to prove he can boost Sony’s sales, which are expected to be 6% lower than last year.

“Cost cutting and reshuffling of management may help mend unprofitable businesses but they won’t make Sony competitive against Samsung and other rivals,” said Hirakawa, a fund manager at DIAM Co., which oversees $80 billion in assets including Sony shares. “The brand is still highly regarded but that won’t last forever.”

Premium Without the Value in Tough Times

While all electronics manufacturers have suffered during the worst economic crisis since World War II, premium-branded Sony has been hit especially hard. The economy has brought out the practical side of consumers, who flocked to cheaper television sets from makers like Vizio Inc., which is No. 2 in North America behind Samsung.

It’s the “intensification of price competition” that contributed to Sony’s $1.7 billion operating loss in its electronics segment last year, the company said. Comparable televisions from Samsung are often hundreds of dollars less than a Sony, without a significant sacrifice in tangible quality.

“I don’t think you can say a Samsung TV has a better picture than Sony TV,” Richard Doherty, co-founder of industry researcher Envisioneering Group told the San Diego Union-Tribune. “But (the difference) has narrowed, and that’s one of the problems.”

Indeed, while TVs from Sony may have technically superior features such as 240mhz refresh rates, it usually won’t make a difference to the mass market. The benefit of such a feature is “difficult to discern,” writes CNET, a leading Web site from CBS Interactive Inc.

Televisions are just one area where Sony is struggling with its value proposition. Until recently, Sony faced mounting pressure from video game executives and analysts to cut the price of its $400 PlayStation 3 (PS3) console.

“They have to cut the price, because if they don’t, the attach rates [the ratio of games purchased to a console] are likely to slow. If we are being realistic, we might have to stop supporting Sony,” Bobby Kotick, chief executive officer and president of Activision Blizzard Inc. (Nasdaq: ATVI) said in a June interview with Times Online.

After months of lowering manufacturing costs on PS3, Sony finally dropped the price of the console to $300 in the United States and launched an ad campaign touting “It only does everything,” a reference to PS3’s ability to play games, Blu-ray movies and browse the Internet.

The result was Sony selling more than 1 million PS3s in the first three weeks of September, almost the same amount it sold in the entire second quarter. A similar price drop in Japan led to PS3 outselling Nintendo’s Wii last month, a first since the console was released in Nov. 2006.

Sony’s Walkman, which first revolutionized portable audio 30 years ago, now comes in the form of a touchscreen digital media player, but has failed to put a dent in Apple’s ubiquitous iPod, which also has a touchscreen model. Sony’s 32-gigabyte Walkman sells for $400. But while it gives users some limited Internet options, Apple’s comparable iPod Touch sells for $100 less and has access to thousands of applications – many of them free – in its vaunted App Store.

Without any tangible features to discern it from the competition, it’s no wonder Sony expects to sell just 6.7 million Walkmans this year, while Apple sold 10 million iPods in its third quarter alone.

Currency Crisis

Sony, like its Japanese counterpart Panasonic Corp. (NYSE ADR: PC), is inherently at a disadvantage to Korean competitors like Samsung and LG Electronics Inc. due to the yen’s strengthening position against the won and U.S. dollar. The yen’s gain has enabled the Korean manufacturers to sell its products at a discount of as much as a 10% without taking a hit on margin.

“We don’t have a moment to breathe,” Sony Vice Chairman Ryoji Chubachi said of the strengthening Japanese currency in a Bloomberg interview on Tuesday. “It is a tough environment.”

The yen has gained about 15% versus the Korean won and 14% against the dollar in the 12 months ended Sept. 30, according to Bloomberg data. The dollar is at its weakest levels against the yen since February, trading at as low as 88.86 yen on Tuesday. The yen has been the third-best performer among G-10 members in the past 12 months.

For Sony and other Japanese companies, a rising yen is “like a death warrant as things stand now and if this continues, they will have a very difficult time,” said Chu Moon Sung, a Seoul-based fund manager at Shinhan BNP Paribas Asset Management Co., which manages the equivalent of $26 billion in assets. “For Korean companies, it’s a favorable environment and the currency has been the biggest factor for their good performance.”

Source: The Three Roadblocks to Sony’s Turnaround

Not to crunch too many metaphors right here at the top, but a consensus seems to be firming up in the animate jello of the Internet that we have entered the Season of the Witch. An odor of ripeness fills the virtual air — something between dead carp and apples baking.

Whatever else appears to be going on in the upper stories and verdigris-tinged turrets of capital finance — currency rackets, gold switcheroos, interest rate arbitrage games, concealment of losses under rugs and behind curtains, Chinese fire drills performed by Spanish prisoners, executive three-card-monte set-ups, boardroom work-arounds, accounting quicksteps, Peter-to-Paul-shuffles, check kitings, pigeon drops, Ponzi schemes, hugger-muggers, bezels, shucks, jives, and enough monkeyshines to make Lord Greystroke cry for mercy — apart, in other words, from business-as-usual, such as it is these days, on Wall Street, there is a rising collective sense of anxious expectation that things are about to shake loose in the sad-ass shell of what remains of our economy. And the most perplexing part is that there hardly seems any safe place to preserve one’s savings.

The showmen over at the Financial Sense website, have put on an excellent month-long series of interviews and debate podcasts between leading inflationistas and deflationistas — Daniel Amerman, Peter Schiff, Robert Prechter, Mark Faber, Michael “Mish” Shedlock, Harry Dent — and after weeks of sedulous listening I still remain flummoxed as to where to stash the dwindling cash.

Harry Dent was a curious case in point this week. He has made some howlingly wrong calls before (e.g. in 2006, predicting a Dow 40,000 at the conclusion of the post-2001 bubble). Perhaps he missed the crack-up aspect of the most recent boom. He did not foresee the long gruesome meltdown of late 2007 to March 2009, or rather, his timing was off, since he called for the commencement of a new Great Depression in 2010. (And I hasten to insert here that my own timing of events has not been so great either.) Anyway, Dent sees a “winter” of finance and economy looming from here forward, characterized by extreme deflation, based on his view that the amount of private debt going bad (est. $40 trillion) far outweighs government’s ability to create new “money” (a few measily trillion) and hence that there is no chance in hell we’ll find ourselves in an inflationary situation for some time ahead. The private debt workout has to be completed first.

Most curious, though, was when the interviewer, Jim Puplava, probed Dent about his views on Peak Oil. Dent said he didn’t believe in it; that when he was in college in the 1970s (remember the OPEC oil embargo of ‘73), he learned to disregard any suggestions that we are “running out of oil.” He stated this, by the way, as a simple assertion, without any further explanation, and Puplava didn’t belabor him with arguments. But it was a weird moment. Of course, it hardly need be said that Peak Oil story has never been about “running out of oil” per se, but rather about declining flows, geopolitical management of flows, and the effects of depletion on industrial economies — in particular the effect on regular, expected, cyclical “growth” of the type that financial markets utterly depend on to power the trade in investment paper.

It is exceedingly odd that this does not factor into Dent’s thinking, because what Peak Oil inescapably does is introduce the very sobering idea of discontinuity — that is, that the game has changed radically, especially where all our assumptions about continued “growth” are concerned. In that brief exchange on Peak Oil, Dent seemed to take the position that the “winter” part of any historical financial cycle always produced “new technology” that invariably saves the day, putting this seemingly very smart man in the camp of so many techno-cornucopian triumphalists all wishing for the same outcome: that some mythical “they” will “come up with” a set of rescue remedies to keep all the cars circulating on the freeways, and all the WalMarts groaning with swag.

Like so many major league prognosticators, Dent arrives at his ideas by building models of reality, assembling “data” to create charts of trends in prices, interest rates, and especially demographics – what age group of people are buying a lot of what in which stage of their lives. The whole business seems very rational and reasonable except when you realize that it is just another “narrative” — to borrow one of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s terms — girded with statistical justification. One can hardly fault it from a strictly procedural point of view — since, in our culture, conclusions ought to proceed from evidence — but one can’t escape the feeling that it amounts to little more than old-fashioned augury… that someone examining the entrails of a dead chicken, spread over the front page of The Wall Street Journal, might arrive at very similar conclusions. All that said, Dent was an appealingly confident personality on-the-air, the kind of authoritative voice you’d like to believe, if only it were possible.

Prechter was much the same a few weeks earlier, and he, too, foresees a darker American future, based on a different set of models called Elliot Wave principles. His forecasts derive from a picture of “social mood” as much as economic data flows. He, too seems to disregard the Peak Oil story and its implications as the master resource driving growth in industrial economies.

Personally, I am not at all sure that the Peak Oil story, or its associated general resource scarcity story, will shed a whole lot of light on the question of inflation-or-deflation. I say this because I think it is a short way down the road of depletion-and-scarcity before the major complex systems we depend on for daily life become so unstable that general socio-economic collapse ensues. After all, capital finance is only one of these many complex systems — some other biggies being food production, trade and manufacture, transportation, electric power distribution, infrastructure maintenance, the military, and governance. Inflation-or-deflation will only be symptomatic of larger failures and instabilities in these systems necessary for modern, civilized life.

All of it begs the question not only whether you or I will have two nickels to rub together, or two gold eagles, or a bundle of six month US Treasury bills, or a zillion shares of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), or a gainful vocation, or a roof over our heads, or a hot meal at the end of the day, or a safe place to sleep, or a country we can recognize. I’ve done my share of forecasting, with some episodes of notably bad timing. I don’t do it for grandstanding effect but to provide some basis for knowing what to do in the years directly ahead, so we can hope to construct lives worth living. I’m impatient with models, charts, and statistical analysis. Perhaps this is childish. I’d rather tell a story or paint a picture. So, I’m going to spend the rest of the week finishing the last chapter of World Made By Hand Two: The Witch of Hebron while the US economy wanders where it will.

Regards,
James Howard Kunstler

Source: Inflation, Deflation, Peak Oil and Complex Systems

For its second quarter ended August 29, RIM reported net income of $475.6 million, or 83 cents per share on revenue of $3.53 billion. That compares to a net income of $643.0 million, or $1.12 per share on revenue of $3.42 billion in the same quarter a year ago.

Analysts expected RIMM to earn $1 per share on revenue of $3.62 billion, according to Briefing.com.

In June, RIM held a commanding market share lead over Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone – it’s closest competitor in the United States – with a 55% share of the smartphone market versus Apple’s 20%.

Approximately 3.8 million net new BlackBerry subscriber accounts were added in the quarter, bringing the total account base to 32 million, RIM said. AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), said it activated more than 2.4 million iPhone accounts, but that number is limited to the United States, where AT&T is the exclusive carrier of the smartphone.

Roughly 8.3 million BlackBerry smartphones where shipped in the quarter, versus 5.2 million iPhones in Apple’s last reported quarter, which ended June 27.

RIM shares were trading at $73.55 in after hours trading this evening, down 11.45%.

Source: Research in Motion Shares Nosedive After Missed Sales, Earnings

Ad revenues in the newspaper industry plunged 16.7% last year to $37.8 million r, according to the Newspaper Association of America (NAA). The 2009 take is estimated to fall another 17.3% to $31.6 billion according to Alan Mutter, a Silicon Valley executive who once lead the newsrooms of the Chicago Sun-Times and San Francisco Chronicle and now writes a blog titled “Reflections of a Newsosaur.”

Mutter’s estimate would put ad revenues at their lowest levels since 1965, when the industry took in $4.42 billion, or $30.22 billion when adjusted for inflation, the Columbia Journalism Review (CJR) reported.

While the worst economic downturn since World War II has eviscerated the fortunes of print media companies like The New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT), The Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO) and Gannett Co. Inc. (NYSE: GCI), publishers will see secular decline in revenue even after the financial crisis subsides.

“Think, for instance, the classified ads business of newspapers, which has been walloped by eBay and craigslist (with a final indignity provided by the cyclical collapse of the housing bubble),” the CJR said. “Most of those revenues aren’t coming back. That’s a secular decline.”

The result of this decline means a “new reality” for publishers as they transition from the printed page to digital content. All the major publishers are online and have been for some time.

The New York Times’ Web site began in 1995, when the Internet was just starting to enter consumers’ homes. Ten years later in 2005, The Timestried its hand at a subscription-based model for its Web site, known as TimesSelect, a service that charged readers without subscriptions $50 a year for online access to editorial content.

According to The Times Co., TimesSelect had about 227,000 paying subscribers by August 2007. However, accessing the content for free were an additional 471,200 home delivery readers, as well as another 89,200 college students.

But the estimated 13 million readers who accessed the site that month, according to Nielsen/NetRatings reports, dwarfed those subscriber-users. The following month, the Times Co. gave up on TimesSelect and made the Web site free for all users in September 2007.

Since then, nytimes.com has soared to become the most visited newspaper site in the United States, with roughly 20 million unique visitors per month as of March. But The Times and other publishers are still trying to figure out how to generate revenue and turn a profit, especially now that the recession is cutting into advertisers’ budgets.

“As we continue our transition from a company focused primarily on print to one that is increasingly digital in focus and multiplatform delivery, online advertising revenues are a more important part of our mix,” said The Times Co. President and Chief Executive Officer Janet Robinson. “They made up 21% of our ad revenues in the quarter, up from 18% in the same period a year ago.”

Print and online ad revenue for U.S. newspaper publishers fell 29% in the second quarter from $9.6 billion to $6.82 billion, according to the NAA. Part of this stems from a cyclical decline in spending, while the rest comes from the “new reality” that people aren’t reading as many printed newspapers as they used to.

“This data represents a rearview mirror perspective on what we all know was a terrible stretch of bad road,” said NAA Chief Executive Officer John Sturm.

And the data comes even as online news audiences are growing: The latest data from the NAA shows online newspaper readership was 73.3 million users in the first quarter, a 10.5% increase from the 66.4 million the year before.

A Financial Fork in the Road

Publishers are hoping the decline in online ad spending is cyclical, but some aren’t waiting for the recovery to take advantage of the growing information-hungry audience and what they hope is an inevitable upswing in ad revenue.

News Corp. (Nasdaq: NWS) Chairman and CEO Rupert Murdoch has vowed to charge for all of the online content of his newspapers and television news channels, including The Wall Street Journal, the New York Post and Fox News.

Much of the content on The Journal’s Web site is available only through a paid subscription of $1.99 per week, and is one of the few newspapers to successfully charge for its content, in spite of a backdoor to view articles for free via Google Inc.’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) popular search engine.

“If successful, we’ll be followed by all media,” Murdoch told the Financial Times.

Murdock predicts “significant revenues” from charging for differentiated news online.

But differentiated news isn’t enough for people to pay for it, according to Google CEO Eric Schmidt.

“In general these models have not worked for general public consumption because there are enough free sources that the marginal value of paying is not justified based on the incremental value of quantity,” he said to a group of British broadcasting executives.

Murdoch is hoping The Journal’s online success will carry over to its mobile applications for devices like Research in Motion Ltd.’s (Nasdaq: RIMM) BlackBerry and Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone. His company will start charging consumers to read stories via those apps “in one to two months,” he told Reuters last week.

Several news outlets already have either ad-supported mobile news sites or device-specific applications. The Times and The Journal have the No. 2 and No. 5-most downloaded apps in Apple’s App Store for iPhone, respectively. NPR News is the most popular app.

A “Digital Vampire” Becomes a Partner to Some Publishers

Google News, which aggregates stories from the all over the Internet, currently generates ad revenue from news searches and doesn’t share any of it with the news sites – a business model that clearly doesn’t sit well with publishers.

Earlier this summer, Les Hinton, chief executive officer of Dow Jones and publisher of The Journal described Google as a “digital vampire.”

Speaking at the annual PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP Entertainment and Media Outlook event, Hinton accused Google of “sucking the blood” out of the newspaper business, and vowed new developments would level the playing field.

“There is a charitable view of the history of Google,” Hinton said. “[It] didn’t actually begin life in a cave as a digital vampire per se.”

Instead, by offering content free on the Web, the newspaper industry “gave Google’s fangs a great place to bite,” he said. “We will never know what might have happened had newspapers taken a different approach.”

Now, Google is trying a new way to share its take and possibly change the way people read news on the Web with its “Fast Flip” experiment, unveiled last week.

The idea behind Fast Flip is to present newspaper and magazine Web sites like a print publication, and users can quickly “flip” top stories in a selected category or specific topic found via Google’s search.

Google will share revenue with publishers such as The Times. Co. and The Post Co., but specific percentages were not given.

“The publishing industry faces many challenges today, and there is no magic bullet,” said Google News researcher Krishna Bharat in a blog posting. “However, we believe that encouraging readers to read more news is a necessary part of the solution. We think Fast Flip could be one way to help, and we’re looking to find other ways to help as well in the near future.”

Source: ‘New Reality’ for Newspaper Publishers Forces Search for New Revenue Streams to Tap Into

Motorola’s stock is up nearly 12% since the announcement, as investors are hoping the new phone will be enough to win back some of the company’s lost market share.

However, saving Motorola’s mobile division – which the company plans to spin off – is a daunting task. The company – which invented the cell phone, as well as a plethora of other communication devices used by police and military – has seen its global market share of wireless phones fall to 2% in its second quarter this year from 31% in 1995. Mobile phone sales accounted for 33% of Motorola’s second-quarter revenue, down from 41% a year ago.

Motorola had enjoyed some success in 2004 when it released its popular Razr clamshell-style phone, which was viewed as a fashionable and useful high-tech gadget. During its four-year run, more than 110 million Razrs were sold.

However, Motorola failed to respond to innovation in the mobile phone market that was pioneered by its fiercest competitors. Apple and RIMM have whittled away at Motorola’s market share over the past five years.

With the Cliq, Motorola is trying to separate from the competition by angling its device toward a younger, less professional base. The Cliq’s biggest draw will be its quick access to social networking content from Facebook Inc., Twitter Inc. and News Corp.’s (NYSE: NWS) MySpace.

“Our initial take is favorable, and it seems that Motorola is carving out a niche in the crowded smartphone market by focusing on socially minded demographics as opposed to enterprise users or pro-sumers,” RBC Capital Markets Corp. analyst Mark Sue told Reuters. Sue upped his share target for Motorola from $8 to $10 a share.

Aside from that distinction, the Cliq includes features typically found in most any smartphone: A touch screen, slide-out keyboard, and access to an application store. It runs on Google Inc.’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android mobile operating system, already found on two other T-Mobile Phones.

However, if Motorola’s Android-based phones are going to take off, they’ll need bigger wireless carriers. The phones currently function on Deutsche Telecom AG’s (NYSE ADR: DT) T-Mobile USA Inc. network. But with just 34 million users, T-Mobile is the fourth-largest carrier in the United States.

For that reason, a second Android phone will be offered for Verizon Communications Inc.’s (NYSE: VZ) mobile network, which is nearly three times as large. Verizon Wireless has about 88 million subscribers and is the largest carrier in the United States.

Wall Street may be underestimating the boost in profit Motorola will get from its smartphone line in 2010, UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) analyst Maynard Um said in a note to investors. Um has upgraded the communications firm’s stock to “buy” from “neutral.” Um attributed the upgrade to the expected holiday release of the Cliq, as well as additional deals with mobile carriers in the fourth quarter.

Pricing for the Cliq was not announced, but Um anticipates recession-friendly pricing.

“We do not expect new competitor handset announcements to have a materially negative sentiment impact on Motorola, as the company is not defending share, likely only has share upside, and is likely to be an aggressor on price,” he wrote.

A sizeable boost in profit could come from the Android phones’ access to the Android Market, Google’s application store. Apple’s App Store for its iPhone and iPod Touch devices have proven to be a boon for the company, with more than 1.8 billion paid and free apps downloaded since its debut in July 2008. While many of the apps, such as those from The New York Times are free, they present consumers a strong value proposition when buying a smartphone.

However, Apple’s App Store has more than 75,000 applications available, while Google’s Android Market offers just 10,000 apps.

Motorola will add more Android-based phones next year, Chief Executive Officer Sanjay Jha said at a conference last week in San Francisco, and Avian Securities LLC analyst Matt Thornton expects Android phones to represent 30% of the total handsets it sells in 2010, Bloomberg News reported.

“It’s the first step in a long journey,” said Jha, who insists the Cliq will not make or break his company.

In March 2008, Motorola to split its core business from its mobile division after pressure from billionaire investor Carl Ichan mounted. At the time, analysts said the split would put the company in a better position to sell assets or negotiate a joint venture.

A week later, Videocon Industries Ltd., the largest electronics maker in India, said it was interested in buying Motorola’s mobile business. However, neither a sale nor split of Motorola has happened.

Motorola shares closed at $8.79 in trading yesterday (Monday), up 11 cents or 1.27%.

Source: Hot Stocks: Motorola Throws Hat Into Smartphone Ring

And as goes the semiconductor industry, so goes the U.S. economy.

These days, microchips are present in virtually every type of product – from coffee makers to cars: If it plugs into the wall or takes batteries, chances are good there’s a semiconductor inside.

Given the microchip’s ubiquitous nature, the companies that make them – as well as the companies that make the chipmaking equipment – can be viewed as a kind of leading economic indicator. Companies that intend to produce products down the road have to place orders for chips or for equipment now, meaning an uptick in semiconductor-sector business activity today and represent a jump in broader economic growth tomorrow.

“While most chip companies have as yet cited but modest improvement, and forecasts have been held in check, signs of a strong upturn are brewing that will significantly improve upon higher – but still modest – expectations,” Rick Whittington, an analyst with JSA Research wrote in a Forbes column earlier this summer. “High proprietary chip content stocks are poised for breakout sales and earnings, probably quickly returning to levels before last summer’s plunge.”

While consumer spending remains the chief U.S. economic catalyst, accounting for more than two-thirds of gross domestic product (GDP), business spending remains a crucial contributor – especially at a juncture in which consumer confidence has been flayed. Indeed, business spending has stabilized and will return to growth in 2010, semiconductor and other electronics manufacturers believe. In the meantime, they are ramping up production to meet what they believe is a growing consumer demand.

Microchips are used in a broad scope of products: DVD players, automobiles, calculators, coffee makers and televisions, telephones – as well as such stalwarts as personal computers.

Like other economic indicators, electronic-order levels have yet to traverse the economic neutral zone to break into positive territory (marked by the “year-over-year growth” label) but at least the hemorrhaging is subsiding: Sales of semiconductors in North America in the month of July were $3.1 billion, an increase of 5.9% from June, when sales were $2.9 billion, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA). The continent’s 8% year-over-year decline is significantly less than the rest of the world’s 18.2%, and was the smallest decline of any major market in the world.

“Sales of consumer products such as netbook PCs and cell phones are supporting the modest recovery that is now under way,” said SIA President George Scalise. “Purchases of information technology products by the enterprise sector continue to be tempered by caution and longer replacement cycles. There is evidence of a return to seasonal industry patterns.”

That evidence was further backed up by trade organization Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), which said North America-based manufacturers posted a book-to-bill ratio of 1.06, meaning that $106 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product shipped.

Inventories for many chipmakers are at a lower level compared to their average level for the past three years, Purchasing.com reported, citing market research firm iSuppli Corp. But with the holiday season approaching and retail inventory levels already lowered by a weak consumer demand in the first half of 2009, chipmakers are once again ramping up production, according to iSuppli analyst Carlo Cireiello.

Semiconductor inventory levels are now at “appropriate levels, down from previously excessive positions,” Ciriello told Purchasing.com. Ciriello forecasted in July that chipmakers would begin building inventories 5.5% in the third quarter and 1% in the fourth.

Semiconductors are used in a broad scope of products: DVD players, automobiles, calculators, coffee makers and televisions, telephones. Money Morning took a look at a few of the bigger players (and related companies) in the industry.

Chipmakers Fuel Business Spending

Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC) reported its first quarterly loss in July, losing $398 million after setting aside $1.45 billion in funds to pay a fine from the European Union, which said Intel used illegal rebates to thwart competitors, Bloomberg News reported. Still, the world’s largest chipmaker saw its sales beat analyst estimates and the company late last month boosted its third-quarter revenue forecast to at least $8.8 billion, from an earlier projection of $8.1 billion.

Before Intel raised its guidance, analysts polled by Bloomberg were expecting sales of $8.57 billion. A compilation of analysts’ estimates by Thomson Financial Network now has the chipmaker’s revenue at $8.93 billion. Intel’s revenue in the third quarter of 2008 was $10.2 billion.

“Intel’s second-quarter results reflect improving conditions in the PC market segment with our strongest first- to second-quarter growth since 1988 and a clear expectation for a seasonally stronger second half,” Chief Executive Officer Paul Otellini said.

The increase in Intel’s sales forecast could be attributed to a rebound in PC orders by consumers in Asia, and Edward Jones & Co. analyst William Kreher says the higher guidance bodes well for the technology industry because Intel is a barometer for spending.

“Consumers are driving the strength and the relative strength in PCs,” Kreher told Bloomberg. “We do have an expectation that 2010 will bring renewed demand from the corporate sector as well.”

Chipmaker Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (Nasdaq: MRVL) Chief Executive Officer Sehat Sutardja also sees initial growth by consumer products such as cell phones, e-books and mobile Internet devices. Marvell makes chips that are used in everything from computer hard drives to smartphones such as Research in Motion Ltd.’s (Nasdaq: RIMM) BlackBerry and Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone.

“Demand for a lot of consumer devices seems to be picking up from six months ago, both in the U.S. and non-U.S., particularly non-U.S.,” Marvell Chief Financial Officer Clyde Hosein said in an interview with Reuters. “That has picked up substantially since the April time frame and continues to improve or maybe accelerate.”

Investing to Build a Better Chip

If the health of microchip firms is a leading indicator of the outlook for the overall economy, then the outlook for semiconductor-equipment manufacturers is a harbinger of what’s to come for chipmaking sector.

The reason is simple: As chips become more powerful, they also become more complex – meaning the chipmaking process becomes increasingly demanding and deft. So before semiconductor firms can ramp up in a big way, they need to invest in the latest and greatest equipment.

That’s where the equipment stocks come into play.

Capital expenditures – known as “capex” in Wall Street parlance – is a closely watched statistic. Chipmaking firms invest in new gear to expand capacity, to move to the newest technology, or both.

Because of the global financial crisis, so-called “capacity utilization” – the number of chips being turned out as a percentage of what those factories are capable of turning out – plunged to 55.6% in the first quarter of 2009 from 89.7% during the same period a year ago, the SIA reported.

And with more than 40% of the industry’s “fab” capacity sitting fallow, new plants aren’t being built – especially since they cost about $3 billion each, TheStreet.com reported. Several of the equipment players have filed for bankruptcy as a result.

Coming into this year, only three semiconductor firms planned to invest more than $1 billion in new equipment: Intel, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE ADR: TSM) and Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.

That’s down from eight companies in 2008 and 16 in 2007.

But the tide appears to be turning – and investments will ramp up as the worldwide economy improves. Already, United Microelectronics Corp. (NYSE ADR: UMC) announced it is boosting its outlays for new equipment to $500 million from the $400 million it planned earlier in the year. Chartered Semiconductor will increase capex to $500 million from the $400 million announced earlier this year. That will be an increase from the $349 million the company spent in 2008.

Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (Nasdaq ADR: CHRT) is boosting its outlay from the $375 million planned early in the year to $500 million now, according to TheStreet.com. And Toshiba Corp will spend $900 million – down from $3.2 billion last year, but still more than many analysts initially expected.

Additionally, U.S.-based equipment firms will benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar, which makes American products cheaper in foreign-currency terms.

One such U.S. firm is longtime industry leader Lam Research Inc. (Nasdaq: LRCX), which is experiencing an improvement in its business despite a loss in its recently reported fourth-quarter results. Those results included better-than-expected revenue.

During the fourth quarter, which ended June 30, the company said “business conditions improved … contributing to Lam’s ability to show improved financial results for the quarter. Shipments and revenues increased as a result of customer investments to add [leading-edge capacity] in both foundry and memory.”

And while business continues to improve, Lam said it hasn’t lost sight of the need to carefully manage cash and to invest considerable care in choosing where to make next-generation strategic investments.

Lam’s shares have surged nearly 42% so far this year, although they remain 21% below their 52-week high of $37.96. The shares closed yesterday at $30.16, up 5 cents each on a day the major U.S. stock indices were down for a fourth-straight day.

Older PCs Set Stage For Hardware Refresh

Dell Inc. (Nasdaq: DELL) Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Michael Dell is on a mission to save his company $4 billion a year.

The company outsourced 40% of its manufacturing as of its second quarter, helping it achieve an 18.7% gross margin that exceeded analysts’ expectations. Dell’s profit of 28 cents a share also beat Wall Street’s estimate of 28 cents.

CEO Dell sees Microsoft Corp.’s (Nasdaq: MSFT) October 22 release of Windows 7, as well as faster processors from Intel, as the ignition for PC and server purchases next year.

“The size of the installed based of old hardware has never been greater,” Dell said in a conference call with analysts. “I’m here to tell you there’s going to be a refresh cycle next year. It’s not going to come in the first month or the second month, but over the course of the year.”

Dell remains confident that a majority of its business customers are deferring purchases and will accelerate IT spending to take advantage of technology improvements like Windows 7 and Microsoft’s Office 2010, according to Chief Financial Officer Brian Gladden.

“This acceleration remains predicated on an improving economy and related improvements in customer profits and government tax receipts,” Gladden said.

For Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ), its earnings of 91 cents a share narrowly beat Wall Street estimates of 90 cents, and Chief Executive Officer Mark Hurd sees stabilization, but was reluctant to say the bottom has been reached.

“Business is stabilizing, and we are confident that HP will be an early beneficiary of an economic turnaround and will continue to outperform when conditions improve,” Hurd said.

Both H-P and Dell have already credited consumers in Asia for a rebound in orders in PCs, Bloomberg reported.

Source: Semiconductor and Electronics Makers Anticipate a Bounce in Business Spending Next Year

In the 1950s, one argument stated that short-term market activity results in the law of one price – i.e., that buying and selling mispriced shares of the same stock forces a single price to dominate.

Then came the “modern portfolio theory,” which claimed that investors simply couldn’t beat the market averages. This so-called “market efficiency theory” was the impetus behind the formation of the Vanguard 500 Index Fund (NYSE: VFINX) – the world’s largest mutual fund.

Score one for the stuffy “efficiency theorists.”

But while they congratulated each other over brandy and cigars, a little-known professor spoiled the party in the 1980s with a straightforward study that is still the driving force behind one of the most lucrative wealth-building approaches today…

Forget “Market Efficiency”… Here’s the Best Way to Beat the Market

The study simply categorized companies by market capitalization (shares outstanding times share price). The 10 divisions ranged from small to large – and research proved that small firms consistently outperformed their larger cousins for many decades.

And it’s now widely accepted that this “small firm effect” is arguably the best way for investors to beat the market.

And the logic in seeking out small firms is sound. After all, Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and hundreds of other mega-companies all started as small firms.

It’s what we like to call the “white cap” effect…

The Perfect “White Cap” Stock – Five Common Characteristics

The beauty of “white cap” stocks is that they feature a powerful, earnings-boosting blend of three “market efficiency” anomalies – momentum, value and IPOs.

• White Cap Stock Factor #1: Products That Satisfy Unmet Market Need

One of the key traits of a good momentum stock is that the company has an exciting new product(s) that fulfills an unmet consumer need.

Take Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), for example. With consumers across the world clamoring forApple products, the stock has refuted the “market efficiency” approach and delivered outstanding returns for investors.

The White Cap Report remit: Target very small firms with products that supply an unmet market worth at least $1 billion.

• White Cap Stock Factor #2: Company is a Stock Market Newcomer

Many investors shy away from Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) because they’re too unknown and unproven in the stock market.

But invest properly and the risk is certainly worth the reward. Plus, you can mitigate risk by only picking small firms that have received an upgrade from an over-the-counter (OTC) stock to a major exchange. It also ensures that you’re not buying into a penny stock, which really ratchets up the risk.

• White Cap Stock Factor #3: Low Debt

When people and institutions buy bonds from a publicly traded firm, that money has to be paid back plus interest.

This is why bondholders (debt) can sometimes hurt regular shareholders. Debt puts a drain on building assets like cash, and as debt rises, shareholder value drops.

• White Cap Stock Factor #4: Low Competition and High Barriers to Entry

Warren Buffett, the greatest stock investor in the world, looks for companies in industries with high-entry barriers and low-exit barriers. Why? Because it’s difficult for any serious competition to join the industry.

The wisdom behind this approach is that poorly managed, unprofitable firms can get out easily without resorting to desperate price gouging – something that would cause a consumer bidding war and damage the well-managed firm’s profitability.

• White Cap Stock Factor #5: No Analyst Coverage

Watch shows like “Mad Money” on CNBC and you get a sense that Wall Street’s attitude is, “If the public wants stocks, we’ll give ‘em stocks.”

Thing is, though, lots of companies aren’t recommended to make you wealthy… but to fatten up commissions for Wall Street firms.

In fact, there are numerous studies that show that Wall Street analysts are absolutely untrustworthy. For example…

• They’re perpetually bullish and are pressured by CEOs, fund managers and supervisors not to downgrade a stock. This means the public is almost never told when they should really sell a stock. The reality is that when there’s a fire in the house, Wall Street opens the exits for its “good ol’ boys” first and leaves you behind to get burned.
• They often recommend the same stock as other prominent analysts. So if he’s following her, and she’s following him, just who the heck is doing any meaningful “research” on Wall Street?!
• They’ve been caught “front-running” – i.e., recommending stocks that prominent investors, investment houses and employee option-vested Wall Street executives are trying to sell for an obscene profit. This was particularly true in 1999 and 2000, where the vast majority of top executives cashed out, even while analysts where overwhelmingly bullish across the board.

Finding White Cap Stocks With The White Cap Report

This is where The White Cap Report differs. The goal is to find firms that Wall Street has no clue about. It makes sure few if any analysts covers the stock. This way, the waters don’t get muddied and you’re able to get in before the market does, sending the price upward.

All five of these “white cap factors” are essential parts of the investment formula that The White Cap Report team follows in identifying the small-cap stocks packed with the most profit potential – a formula that has proved extremely successful.

The results speak for themselves. In the last month alone they’ve locked-in two 100% gains and a solid 35% gain. Not to mention, their current portfolio contains another seven winning picks.

Source: “White Cap” Stocks: The Best Way For Investors To Beat The Market

Shares of Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) have gained 100% since the start of the year, and with the likely release of an innovative “tablet” computer and the pending debut of its wildly popular iPhone in China both in the offing, the company’s stock could still find some room to run.

Shares in the Cupertino, Calif.-based company are at their highest level since August 2008, thanks to a successive string of upbeat earnings reports, a near-$30 billion cash reserve and recession-defying sales of its products.

The iPhone alone sold 5.2 million units in the second quarter, compared to 717,000 the year before, and its Macintosh computers, which still have a miniscule share compared to Windows-based PCs, are gaining momentum.

Several market research firms, including Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) and Barclays PLC (NYSE ADR: BCS), now have price targets for Apple stock that exceed $200 a share.

Apple’s shares closed Friday at $170.05, up 60 cents, or 0.35%, each. An advance to $200 would represent a gain of about 18% from current levels.

Sales of Apple’s now-ubiquitous iPod have slowed, but Apple executives anticipated that would be the case, as sales of its music-playing iPhone and iPod Touch grow.  Both of those devices have access to thousands of applications sold in the App Store.

A tablet computer from Apple, which has been a hot news topic in the tech world since last spring, moved closer to reality last week. The Wall Street Journal reported that since returning from leave to undergo aliver transplant, Apple Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs has devoted almost all of his time to this specific device.

Pundits have already dubbed the gadget the “MacBook Tablet” or “iTablet,” and executives believe it will have positive implications for media going forward.

“It’s a portable entertainment device,” one entertainment executive toldThe Financial Times. “It’s going to be fabulous for watching movies.”

Recording executives say Apple plans on using the large screen for interactive booklets and liner notes that typically accompany compact discs. And book publishers could view the tablet as an alternative to Amazon.com Inc.’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) popular Kindle or Sony Corp.’s (NYSE ADR: SNE) Reader in the growing e-book market.

Sign up below… and we’ll send you a new investment report for free: “Credit Crisis Report.”

“It would be a color, flat-panel TV to the old-fashioned, black-and-white TV of the Kindle,” one book executive told the FT.

Hollywood and video game executives haven’t been briefed on the tablet, but both have shown optimism for it. A large selection of movies and games are already available for the iPod, iPod Touch and iPhone.

Apple is one of the most secretive companies in Silicon Valley. Its iPhone 3G S, which sold 1 million units in its first weekend, wasn’t announced until a few days before its release. By contrast, one of its primary competitors Palm Inc.’s (NASDAQ: PALM) Pre smartphone, released a few weeks before the 3G S in June, was first announced in January at the Consumer Electronics Show. Apple is aiming for a September or October launch of the tablet, The FT said.

While tablet computers are nothing new – they first debuted in the early part of this decade – they only comprise 1.4% of the global portable market, The Journal said. Toshiba Corp., Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE:HPQ) and Fujitsu Ltd. (OTC ADR: FJTSY) all attempted to sell tablets, but ultimately the devices proved to be too cost-prohibitive for consumers.

Despite the worst economic downturn since World War II, Apple is having no trouble convincing consumers to buy iPhones with pricey plans and more expensive Macs. Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Yair Reiner told the FT he expects Apple’s tablet to cost between $600 and $1,000, the range for many Windows-based laptops today.

The tablet is considered by analysts to be Apple’s answer to popularnetbooks, which are smaller laptop PCs designed for navigating the Internet. They usually cost between $200 and $400. CEO Jobs and others in the Apple brass ruled out developing a netbook in a conference call last fall.

“We don’t know how to make a $500 computer that’s not a piece of junk,” Jobs said at the time.

The iPhone Meets the Red Dragon

Apple, whose Mac computers have played second fiddle to personal computers since 1984, found mainstream success in the gadget realm starting in 2002 when it debuted the iPod. To date, roughly 300 million iPods have been sold since 2002. In 2007, Apple debuted the iPhone, which has sold more than 26 million units.

The iPhone will make its debut in mainland China in the fourth quarter with state-owned China Unicom Ltd. (NYSE ADR: CHU) having cut a deal to act as the exclusive carrier for three years. Like AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) in the United States, Unicom will not share revenue with Apple. Instead, it will offer a subsidy to consumers to lower the price, which is expected have a similar $99 to $299 range with two-year service contracts.

Unicom, which is rolling out its third-generation network (3G), enabling wireless video and high-speed Internet navigation, has 141 million wireless users. Unicom will be competing with an estimated 1.5 million gray market iPhones, The Journal reports, citing research firm BDA China Ltd. Unicom, which just reported a 45% drop in profit, is counting on Apple’s iPhone to gain share over market leader China Mobile Ltd. (NYSE: CHL), which has over three times Unicom’s subscribers.

The overall Chinese mobile market, which has 687 million subscribers – more than twice the population of the United States – is highly competitive. Several phones running Google Inc.’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android operating system are due by year’s end, and China Telecom Ltd. (NYSE ADR: CHA) is in talks with BlackBerry maker Research in Motion Ltd. (Nasdaq: RIMM) and Palm to bring those phones to the world’s fastest-growing major market.

“It’s essential for Apple to be in China; it’s a huge market,” CIMB Securities Ltd. Deputy Head of Research Bertram Lai told Bloomberg News. The iPhone “is not just the premium product, it’s an aspirational product,” he said.

Source: Hot Stocks: Up 100%, Apple’s Shares May Still Have Room to Run ]]> http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/hot-stocks-up-100-apple%e2%80%99s-shares-may-still-have-room-to-run/20247/feed 0 http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/put-time-on-your-side-with-this-trading-strategy/20105 http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/put-time-on-your-side-with-this-trading-strategy/20105#comments Mon, 24 Aug 2009 21:32:17 +0000 Karim Rahemtulla http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=20105 Recently, I covered the profitable and simplistic world of LEAP options – a simple way to trade using long-term options that have an expiration date of one to three years.

And it’s this time component that is a critical factor when it comes to valuing the price of a LEAP option and the amount of risk involved.

An option’s price is determined by a computer program – either the Options Pricing Model or the Black-Scholes Model. Black, Scholes and Merton developed the latter model in the 1970s, winning a Nobel Prize for it.

Essentially, both models take the same main factors into account…

• The amount of time until expiration.
• The price of the underlying shares.
• The volatility of the share price.
• The risk-free rate of return.

Let’s take…

Before we get into the ins and outs of this sale, we need to clarify what it means to actually buy one-fourth of the Internet. Of course, you can’t just own something as large and independent as the Internet. But you can buy a portion of its traffic.

We’ve been recently writing about international telecoms. If you bought up enough of these Internet Service Providers you could potentially own enough Internet traffic to constitute a quarter. But there will soon be another way you can invest in the traffic with just a single click.

About 50% of all Internet traffic is from file sharing– people sharing music, videos, games, and every other type of file you can think of. Regardless of how you feel about Internet piracy, 50% of all bandwidth on the net is made up of this type of activity.

Here’s where the story really starts heating up…

The Pirate Bay: 2009 Has Already Been One Hectic Year

Half of all file-sharing traffic is hosted on a single website. That’s a fourth of all Internet traffic in one place. That site is called The Pirate Bay.

TPB was launched in 2003, less than one and a half years after Napster—the pioneer in music file sharing— was forced to shut down because of court rulings.

TPB operates in Sweden, free from initial U.S. laws. But over the past several years, the European Union and many individual member-countries have cracked down on e-piracy.

In 2006, Swedish police raided TPB’s headquarters, temporarily shutting down its server. April of this year was an even worse time for the organization. Founders Peter Sunde, Fredrik Neij, Gottfrid Svartholm and Carl Lundstrom were sent to prison for one year and slapped with a $3.6 million fine.

TPB’s Next Giant Step Forward

With the founders in jail and facing serious fines, another Sweden-based company, Global Gaming Factory, announced plans to purchase TPB for $7.8 million. GGF intends to turn TPB into a legal, fee-based website. Users would have to pay a monthly fee to share files. This money would then be used to pay copyright fees for each file transfer.

This, again, might conjure up images of Napster, which was bought by Roxio Inc at bankruptcy auction. Roxio rebranded it as Napster 2.0, which began to offer legal, paid transfers. Best Buy acquired Napster last year for $121 million, but is struggling to see profits.

GGF’s plans for TPB, however, aren’t as small as Best Buy’s were for Napster. GGF, almost immediately after announcing its plans to buy TPB, declared its intent to take the website public… on Nasdaq.

If all the legal and technical aspects of this deal work out as expected, TPB’s intial public offering will take place sometime in 2010. This gives us less than 16 months to plan.

But before we start setting aside cash for this IPO, we need to take a serious look at what this deal will look like.

Why You Should Not Buy Pirate Bay… At Least With What We Know Now

It’s safe to assume TPB’s 25-plus million users aren’t all going to start paying the monthly fees. Instead, we can expect more than 75% of these users to stop sharing files. Possibly as little as 10% of TPB’s current user base will be left when GGF starts requiring fees.

This transition is expected to come very soon. On August 27, GGF is holding a press conference to go over the details of this reorganization, as well as its plans for the IPO.

GGF is also working on deals to turn TPB’s enormous share of Internet traffic into a second revenue stream. By setting up deals with ISPs, GGF will trade promised bandwidth usage for cash.

ISPs are starting to sell bandwidth to customers instead of offering unlimited packages. This means that users that transfer a large amount of data packets will have to pay considerably more than those that just us the Internet to check their email.

With this transition from monthly subscriber to pay-as-you-go, ISPs will have an opportunity to make more money off bandwidth use. GGF promises that TPB will provide this.

However, we’re not sold on this business model. Napster 2.0 has not been able to mount a significant attack on powerful rivals such as (NASDAQ:AAPL) Apple’s iTunes store. Even web giant Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) has not been able to effectively monetize its $1.65 billion purchase of the world’s most popular video sharing site, YouTube.

GGF’s plan might seem enticing to some—don’t buy into the hype. Music and movie pirates will go somewhere else for their illegal downloads. Avoid this IPO at all costs.

Sincerely,
Jim Nelson

Source: How You Can Own a Quarter of the Internet… And Why You Don’t Want to