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	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; AEG</title>
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		<title>Investing in ADRs: The Most Powerful Way to Reduce Market Risk</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/investing-in-adrs-the-most-powerful-way-to-reduce-market-risk/20543</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Sep 2009 20:39:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr. Scott Brown</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Stock Market Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ADRs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AEG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ARA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ATV]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BMA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BRIC Nations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BRK.B]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CPA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dr. Scott Brown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HMIN]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>It’s official: You can reduce your investment risk simply by  chucking darts at a list of stocks, then buying them.</p>
<p>That’s if you believe a Nobel economist, of course. His crude “experiment” was the start of <em>“</em><em>modern  portfolio theory”</em> decades  ago. The  downside, however, was that with a reduction of risk came a dampening of  profits. So scratch that idea.</p>
<p>How about this? A startling study in the late 1970s showed that owning a portfolio of large U.S. companies with international divisions drops your risk 10% below a domestic stock portfolio. Much better. But that wasn’t the eye-popper…</p>
<p>The  study also found that owning stocks in international companies cuts your risk  in half…</p>
<p>Take that, “efficiency” theorists! Yet the stuffy professors still tried to refute&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It’s official: You can reduce your investment risk simply by  chucking darts at a list of stocks, then buying them.</p>
<p>That’s if you believe a Nobel economist, of course. His crude “experiment” was the start of <em>“</em><em>modern  portfolio theory”</em> decades  ago. The  downside, however, was that with a reduction of risk came a dampening of  profits. So scratch that idea.</p>
<p>How about this? A startling study in the late 1970s showed that owning a portfolio of large U.S. companies with international divisions drops your risk 10% below a domestic stock portfolio. Much better. But that wasn’t the eye-popper…</p>
<p>The  study also found that owning stocks in international companies cuts your risk  in half…</p>
<p>Take that, “efficiency” theorists! Yet the stuffy professors still tried to refute these results. It was a losing battle, though, as more studies emerged, laden with more evidence that international stocks reduce risk.</p>
<p>But the most startling thing? The studies indicate that adding international stocks to your domestic portfolio may even increase your average profits.</p>
<p>But how do you buy stocks in foreign companies trading in London, Hong Kong, or São Paulo? By investing in ADRs… let me explain.</p>
<p><strong>How  to Go Overseas Without Even Getting On a Plane</strong></p>
<p>Let’s say you want to buy shares of an English company, trading on the FTSE-100 index. You’d have to convert your cash to pounds, buy the stock, wait to sell it at a profit, then convert it all back to U.S. dollars.</p>
<p>If  the <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/June/why-we-need-a-weak-dollar.html" target="_blank">greenback weakened</a>, you’d make a profit on the stock but lose on the  conversion!</p>
<p>In a  word: Ugh.</p>
<p>This is why the vast majority of investors buy a managed international mutual fund. This allows the “experts” to run overseas with your bag of cash and make the investments for you.</p>
<p>But  is this really smart?</p>
<p>As  early as the 1960s, some economists confirmed that fund managers can’t forecast  stock prices well enough to cover their own expenses, let alone make you a profit. In the end, all economists – regardless of their background – agreed that the performance of a managed mutual fund is worse than throwing darts at a list.</p>
<p>Here’s  a better way…</p>
<p><strong>Investing in ADRs: Harness  JP Morgan’s Secret Weapon</strong></p>
<p>In  1927, a chain of retail stores wanted to list on the NYSE.</p>
<p>Problem  was, all the stores were in England!</p>
<p>Even for JP Morgan (NYSE:<a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=JPM">JPM</a>) – the greatest investment banker of all time – this one was tricky. But he came up with a solution: He bought a big block of the retailer’s shares on the London Stock Exchange and put them in a trust.</p>
<p>Then  he sold shares of the trust on the NYSE. These shares were called <em>American Depository Receipts</em> – or ADRs  for short.</p>
<p>The company was Selfridges. And with Americans able to invest in a well-managed foreign company with far less risk, the shares sold like hotcakes. And thanks in no small part to this early access to American money, Selfridges is renowned and still thriving today.</p>
<p>So if you want to toss darts around, you could randomly add 3-7 ADRs to your portfolio – a move that will cut your portfolio risk in half, while increasing your profits.</p>
<p>For example, you can go to <a href="http://www.adr.com/" target="_blank">www.adr.com</a> and throw darts at companies like Holland’s <strong>Aegon NV</strong> (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=AEG" target="_blank">AEG</a>),  China’s <strong>Acorn International Inc</strong> (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=ATV" target="_blank">ATV</a>), or Brazil’s <strong>Aracruz Celulose SA</strong> (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=ARA" target="_blank">ARA</a>).</p>
<p>But randomly picking foreign companies is pretty reckless.  Here’s how to invest in <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2004/20040611.html" target="_blank">international stocks</a> properly…</p>
<p><strong>The Four Advantages of Investing in ADRs </strong></p>
<p>What if you knew which international companies were primed to explode in share price? That’s exactly the kind of profitable information that <em>New Frontier Trader</em> readers get all the time.</p>
<p>So here’s my four-point guide for selecting the best foreign ADRs and how they can roll back your risk, even as they ramp up your returns.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>ADR Advantage #1:  International Markets Don’t Move Together:</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>One of the main advantages that ADRs offer is that stocks in  two different countries don’t move together.</p>
<p>When you hit the ground in most foreign countries, it’s a  whole new economic, political and cultural landscape.</p>
<p>So even if your U.S. stocks are going down, your ADRs might  be rising. Take Argentina’s <strong>Banco Macro </strong>(NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=BMA" target="_blank">BMA</a>), for example. You could have bought it on July 6 for $16.34. It’s currently trading around $22.85. That’s a 40% return in just two months.</p>
<p><em>The New Frontier</em> Tip: Buy at least three different high potential ADR stocks, operating in  at least three different international countries.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>ADR Advantage #2:  Hardship Breeds Managerial Excellence:</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Okay, so what about countries that are chaotic – either economically, politically, or in terms of corruption? Places where managers tread in fear day by day.</p>
<p>Check out Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index. It’s a good measure of social disarray. The United States has a relatively low corruption score of 18, while Somalia has the highest at 180.</p>
<p>Managers become slothful when business is easy. But imagine  trying to do honest trade in a pirate haven like Somalia?!</p>
<p>And how about the <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/March/emerging-markets-2.html" target="_blank">BRIC economies</a> – Brazil, Russia, India,  and China? The corruption score is 96. In fact, Russia alone scores a whopping  147 on the global “<em>Dewey, Cheatem &amp;  Howe</em>” scale. Not even Superman’s x-ray vision would help an economist’s macro  analysis.</p>
<p>But intense social disarray breeds the toughest managers, and the companies that rise to the top, despite the chaos, are often the pick of the bunch.</p>
<p>One such firm is <strong>Ecopetrol </strong>(NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=EC" target="_blank">EC</a>). It’s the largest integrated oil company in Colombia. You could have bought it on May 18 for $19.31 per share. By Labor Day weekend, it was trading at $26.41 for a tidy return of 37%!</p>
<p><em>The New Frontier</em> Tip: Look for outstanding management where Wall Street doesn’t expect to  find any.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>ADR Advantage #3:  Muddy Waters Hide Big Fish:</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Studies have proven that Wall Street analysts are incapable of honestly reporting opportunities in their home market. And they’re even more misleading if you try to follow them overseas.</p>
<p>The analyst’s real job is directing traffic where Wall Street’s CEOs and their boards want order flow to go. If executives need to cash out their options, the analyst’s opinion is suddenly upgraded to a green light.</p>
<p>Frankly, Wall Street doesn’t make a dime helping you find a  potential fortune in developing countries.</p>
<p>But there are a few outstanding individuals like <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2008/December/investing-like-warren-buffett.html" target="_blank">Warren  Buffett</a>, who are skilled at spotting hidden jewels. So you could just buy <strong>Berkshire Hathaway </strong>(NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=BRK.B" target="_blank">BRK.B</a>).</p>
<p>But we have a better way: Go direct!</p>
<p>Take China, for instance. Getting solid information from  this murky, mass-demand economy is like pulling teeth from a shark!</p>
<p>But if you had the edge, you could have bought shares in the massive Chinese Holiday Inn, with more than 500 budget hotels in more than 90 Chinese cities. Had you bought <strong>Home</strong> <strong>Inns  &amp; Hotel Management </strong>(Nasdaq: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=HMIN" target="_blank">HMIN</a>) at $15.19 on May 12,  you’d be sitting on an 88.1% gain in just four months.</p>
<p><em>The New Frontier</em> Tip: Target markets that Wall Street doesn’t want you to understand.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>ADR Advantage #4:  Hunt Down Profits That American Conglomerates Can’t Touch:</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Foreign companies located in faraway lands that rise to the top of their regional markets are special. By the time the world’s biggest investment banks invite them to become an ADR, they’re pumping out profits like one of J. Paul Getty’s oil rigs.</p>
<p>South America has hidden <strong>Copa Airlines </strong>(NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=CPA" target="_blank">CPA</a>)<strong> </strong>from American investors until just recently. You could have bought the stock for $32.22 on May 27. Today, it’s trading for $43 – a fast return of 33.4%. In addition, the firm’s operating margin is 20.3%. Compare that to margins at Southwest (2.1%), Jet Blue (6.5%), or American (-3.4%).</p>
<p><strong>The Single Best Way  for Investing in ADRs…</strong></p>
<p>Each of the returns I’ve mentioned above were  recommendations in Alex Green’s <em><a href="http://www.oxfonline.com/NewFrontierTrader/INT0409full.html?pub=INT&amp;code=WINTK901" target="_blank">New Frontier Trader</a></em> newsletter. This service gives you an edge  over the crowd in grabbing the best gains from investing in ADRs.</p>
<p>And the rest of the track record speaks for itself. This year, the service has closed out nine double-digit winners on international stock positions and six triple-digit winners by playing foreign stock options.</p>
<p>Time after time, history has shown that the best way to combine reduced risk with explosive returns is to invest in overseas markets, where Wall Street doesn’t want you to look.</p>
<p>If  you’d like to start enjoying the kind of profits that the <em>New Frontier  Trader</em> has kicked out to subscribers, simply <a href="http://www.oxfonline.com/NewFrontierTrader/INT0409full.html?pub=INT&amp;code=WINTK901" target="_blank">check out this report</a>.</p>
<p>It  all starts with education,</p>
<p>Dr.  Scott Brown</p>
<p><a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/September/investing-in-american-depository-receipts.html"><br />
</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/September/investing-in-american-depository-receipts.html">Source: Investing in ADRs: The Most Powerful Way to Reduce Market Risk</a></p>
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		<title>The Latest Banking Sector Credit Crisis Will Lead to That Sector’s Next Group of Profit Plays</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-latest-banking-sector-credit-crisis-will-lead-to-that-sector%e2%80%99s-next-group-of-profit-plays/2607</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-latest-banking-sector-credit-crisis-will-lead-to-that-sector%e2%80%99s-next-group-of-profit-plays/2607#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 May 2008 13:29:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Keith Fitz-Gerald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Politics & Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AEG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Benefit Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BOLI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Citigroup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FITB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Life Insurance Policies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mortgage debacle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Transamerica Life Insurance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wachovia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WB]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-latest-banking-sector-credit-crisis-will-lead-to-that-sector%e2%80%99s-next-group-of-profit-plays/2607</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Three major U.S.  banks &#8211; including Fifth Third Bancorp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AFITB">FITB</a>) and Wachovia  Corp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=wb&#38;hl=en">WB</a>) &#8211; got  clobbered in recent days <a href="http://www.thestreet.com/story/10417550/1/citi-funds-woes-hit-wachovia-fifth-third.html?puc=btlhome">on  the news</a> that they’ve lost another $1.6 billion by making investments in  the Citigroup Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=c&#38;hl=en">C</a>) <a href="http://www.finalternatives.com/node/3647">Falcon hedge fund</a> that  lost 75% of its value earlier this year.</p>
<p>It’s just the latest chapter in a continuing credit-crisis saga that’s gone on for so long that many investors have become numb to the news: They regard all new developments with a kind of &#8220;so what&#8221; attitude, or just ignore the news completely.</p>
<p>Believe me when I say that such a response is easy to understand. But hear me out as I underscore why investors must continue to watch this financial-services-sector saga closely. It’ll keep&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Three major U.S.  banks &#8211; including Fifth Third Bancorp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AFITB">FITB</a>) and Wachovia  Corp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=wb&amp;hl=en">WB</a>) &#8211; got  clobbered in recent days <a href="http://www.thestreet.com/story/10417550/1/citi-funds-woes-hit-wachovia-fifth-third.html?puc=btlhome">on  the news</a> that they’ve lost another $1.6 billion by making investments in  the Citigroup Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=c&amp;hl=en">C</a>) <a href="http://www.finalternatives.com/node/3647">Falcon hedge fund</a> that  lost 75% of its value earlier this year.</p>
<p>It’s just the latest chapter in a continuing credit-crisis saga that’s gone on for so long that many investors have become numb to the news: They regard all new developments with a kind of &#8220;so what&#8221; attitude, or just ignore the news completely.</p>
<p>Believe me when I say that such a response is easy to understand. But hear me out as I underscore why investors must continue to watch this financial-services-sector saga closely. It’ll keep you out of trouble.</p>
<p>Let me explain …</p>
<p>The funds were invested the premiums from so-called &#8220;Bank Owned Life Insurance Vehicles,&#8221; or BOLIs, which are designed to pay off when key employees die.</p>
<p>BOLIs, in case you are not familiar with them, are specialized policies typically purchased as an employee benefit. Banks use them to fund such expected costs as employee compensation and the accompanying benefits. Like most life-insurance-type policies, BOLI policies contain both an investment feature and a death benefit.</p>
<p>And that’s why banks  like them.</p>
<p>Not only does the bank accrue investment earnings revenue because they own the policies (bank-owned is the &#8220;BO&#8221; component of &#8220;BOLI&#8221;), the financial institution also receives the death benefit.</p>
<p>And since neither the death benefit nor the increase in the value of the investment vehicle is taxed, BOLIs became the mother of all tax shelters for banks.</p>
<p>And that brings  us to the core problem.</p>
<p>You see, by taking the investment portion of the life insurance policies and moving them from traditional portfolio choices into more risky hedge funds, a bank, or in some cases the insurance company that sold the bank the BOLI policy, could increase its investment return with an almost-instantaneous, performance-enhancing boost that looked good to regulators and shareholders alike.</p>
<p>Of course, if  you’re a baseball fan &#8211; as well as an investor &#8211; you know very well that <a href="http://thesteroidera.blogspot.com/">there’s a downside to  &#8220;performance-enhancing&#8221; boosts</a>, even though <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steroids_in_baseball">the dramatic  performance gains make that dark side very tough to resist</a>.</p>
<p>That’s clearly  why Fifth Third, Wachovia and a still-unnamed <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?catid=56630876">regional bank</a> risked a reported $1.6 billion of their respective BOLI programs, an anonymous  source close to the matter told <strong><em>MarketWatch.com</em></strong>. Many banks,  presumably including these three, use BOLIs to offset the costs of their  employee benefit programs.</p>
<p>And they’re not  the only ones….</p>
<p>BOLIs have  proven to be <a href="http://library.findlaw.com/2005/Jan/19/133690.html">so  popular</a> that banks &#8211; always looking for additional ways to &#8220;<a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23731045-36375,00.html">rev  up returns</a>,&#8221; according to one news report &#8211; had more than $120 billion  invested in them as of the end of last year.</p>
<p>But now the <a href="http://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/chickens+come+home+to+roost">chickens  are coming home to roost</a>.</p>
<p>Fifth Third is  suing <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=10129231">Transamerica  Life Insurance Co</a>. &#8211; which sold it the policies &#8211; on the grounds that these investments in the Falcon fund were much more risky than the bank allegedly thought. Fifth Third also named Clark Consulting Corp. as a party in the lawsuit. Both Transamerica and <a href="http://www.insurance-business-review.com/article_news.asp?guid=6A13E025-7535-4908-B5E9-7F469EABB2AA">Clark</a> are subsidiaries of the Netherlands-based Aegon NV (ADR: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AAEG">AEG</a>).</p>
<p>&#8220;As with many other credit-based  investment products, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=aTe_s8sFhLRc">the  Falcon’s returns have been hurt by one of the most volatile periods for fixed  income in recent memory</a>,” said Citigroup spokeswoman Danielle  Romero-Apsilos, <strong><em>Bloomberg News</em></strong> reported.</p>
<p>Filing a lawsuit  is the Corporate America’s version of a high-school kid telling his teacher  &#8220;the dog ate my homework.&#8221;</p>
<p>It seems to me that if you weren’t so greedy in the first place &#8211; and had simply stuck to your knitting with prudent, risk-averse choices that didn’t require all this creative accounting &#8211; you wouldn’t have had a care in the world when Citi’s Falcon Fund lost three-quarters of its value.</p>
<p>The bottom line: There could be an entirely new wave of write-downs encroaching onto financial-services firms’ corporate earnings reports in the next few quarters to come. And, as was the case with the initial part of the subprime-mortgage debacle, some investors are likely to be very surprised at the identities of the early casualties.</p>
<p>But other  investors will continue to say &#8220;so what?&#8221;</p>
<p>Investors who continue to follow these developments will do so with the understanding that this, too, shall pass &#8211; and some pretty profit plays will ultimately start to show themselves.</p>
<p>We’ll be there  to tell you when that happens.</p>
<p>And it’s likely  to begin well before you’d expect it.</p>
<p>After all, as the  old Wall Street adage says: &#8220;Buy when there’s blood in the streets.&#8221;</p>
<p>And if you’ve  been listening to what we say, you’ll be able to say with confidence that none  of that blood is yours.</p>
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/05/29/the-latest-banking-sector-credit-crisis-will-lead-to-that-sectors-next-group-of-profit-plays/">The Latest Banking Sector Credit Crisis Will Lead to That Sector’s Next Group of Profit Plays</a></p>
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