This from Lee:

In this globalized world, it’s no surprise to see the world’s financial markets intertwine in some fashion. That’s why we continue to see volatility run at much higher levels – be it in the stock market or commodities sector.

In the past, the physical and agricultural commodities have typically had very loose ties to the movement of the stock market. After all, why would the falling share price of Dell Inc. (Nasdaq: DELL) have anything to do with the price of corn or sugar? Ordinarily, no reason at all – but it’s not as simple as that any more…

A Changing Commodities World

The commodities world has changed in recent years – and if you know how to play volatility to your advantage, it’s changed for the better. Here are just three quick reasons why…

1. Instead of farmers merely using the commodities markets to hedge their crop, commodities have become more of a speculative game today.
2. It’s become very easy to trade commodities with a click of a mouse today.
3. Commodities are now seen as a viable and valuable portion of investment portfolios.

As a result of these three reasons, commodities are more subject to large money flows into and out of markets. With more individuals holding more commodities, they can sell off just like any other asset. And this can occur at the same time and with the same force as it does in the stock market.

In particularly volatile, and often irrational, markets like the current one, once the herd mentality takes over, the true fundamental value of crops can get unceremoniously shoved to the back burner in favor of what the crowd is doing.

In any event, the markets seem to have decided which direction they’re going to head in: Down…

Remarkable Value Amid The Market’s Rubble

Speaking of that irrationality I just noted, that’s pretty much the only way to sum up the price of numerous top-quality blue-chip stocks today. Many are trading at 15-year lows, with some even under $10.

But while this may cause some investors to throw a big pity party, if you believe in the long-term viability of the markets, putting some of your money to work today while everyone else is selling, it could present one of the greatest buying opportunities in a lifetime.

As for commodities, they will continue to trade on long-term fundamentals such as crop-growing cycles, weather patterns, herd size, supply and demand, etc. And there are some terrific opportunities here, too. So let’s get to it…

OPEC’s Winter Move Might Not Play Out Till Summer

In July 2008, the oil market began a downtrend that is still going strong today. The black stuff continues to make new lows, interspersed with quick bouts of short-lived upside rallies.

But once the price hits the descending moving averages (see chart below), the market gets knocked down again.  The combination of large oil supplies and waning worldwide demand has kept oil on the defensive, with $25 a barrel still in many analysts’ sights.

Three months on from OPEC’s supply cuts, we’re still waiting for the decision to factor into the market. At the moment, the farther-dated oil futures contracts are still moving lower in tandem with the front-month futures contracts.

I don’t think we’ll see the cuts make a dent in the market until at least June, so it looks like status quo for oil for the time being.

Two Ways To Play Our Bullish Outlook On Natural Gas

In a word… bullish.

That’s my take on the natural gas market, as the front-month futures contract has dipped below the pivotal long-term support area of $4.500 per MMBtu – a solid support level since late 2002.

At current levels, I continue to have a long-term bullish outlook. So how can you play the market?

1. Bullish trades involving long-dated, limited-risk options strategies (like option credit spreads) on natural gas futures options contracts, which trade on the NYMEX.
2. Invest in the Natural Gas exchange traded fund UNG that trades on the New York Stock Exchange.

I currently hold bullish natural gas positions in my Instant Money Trader and Triple Zone Profit Trader service that we run.

Knowing how the market can react to the upside with the threat of cold winters in the Northeast (where a majority of natural gas is consumed) and possible damaging hurricane activity on natural gas rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, I feel bullish plays here have a great risk/reward profile.

When You See The Dip… Buy

Amid all the financial market’s doom and gloom, one of the lone bright spots comes from a sector that we’ve mentioned as a pocket of strength for several weeks here.

It is, of course, the metals market – home to stalwarts like gold and silver.

Since December 2008, both have bounded along and made large upside moves. April gold futures have now crossed the watershed $1,000 per ounce mark – an area not seen since July 2008 – while May 2009 silver futures have managed to pop through $14.50 an ounce – silver’s first foray to that level since August 2008.

In mid-December, we noted that the gold and silver markets were beginning to look tradable again after washing out the speculative selling that had knocked the sector down from its all-time highs in July 2008.

With more “rational” investing now in these markets, and with global stock markets and economies still in turmoil, it continues to keep hard assets like gold and silver as the “go-to,” en vogue safe haven play.

Since we’ve already reached our near-term gold price forecast from the my previous column, plus our silver price outlook, too, we now believe that investors should step into bullish plays on large pullbacks in the gold and silver markets. It’s a strategy that should serve you well for the rest of 2009.

Look for gold to re-test the $865 area, while silver should re-test the $12.00 per ounce level.

And the way to play it…?

Other than looking at limited-risk option strategies from the COMEX futures options market, you can invest in the gold and silver markets through shares in ETFs like the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), or iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV). You can also play options on these ETFs.

Drifting Below Support… And Creating Better Value

Having touched support levels that we thought would hold, the coffee and cotton markets have continued to drift lower. This will create an even better level to go long from and we’re just waiting for both markets to find a level that sticks.

With A Big Move Back Down, OJ Is Setting Up A Great Potential Entry Point

Lastly, I want to show you a long-term chart for orange juice futures.

This is another market we’ll be watching closely, as it’s now just about retraced the big upside move it made since the wave of hurricanes hit the Southeastern portion of the United States, beginning in 2004.

Each year, during late spring/early summer, the OJ speculators come out of the woodwork, trying to capitalize on potential disaster trades.

If OJ futures can re-touch the lows of 2004, it could be a great place to put in a low-risk bullish trade that aims to take advantage of any disruptions to the orange juice crop from this season’s hurricanes.

Lee Lowell

Source: Investing in Commodities: 3 Reasons Why Commodities Have Changed

• Kenya’s economy grew 2.1% in the third quarter, down significantly from the 6.3% gross domestic product growth it posted a year earlier. On top of the global financial crisis, Kenya suffered from post-election violence and a severe drought, Bloomberg reported.

• Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) said it will offer buyouts to some employees and cut white-collar pay by up to 50%. Last week, the heavy equipment maker announced plans to lay off 814 works at its engine assembly plant, Reuters reported.

• Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) has made a $2.66 billion offer for Chile’s biggest grocery chain, Distribucion y Servicio D&S SA (ADR:DYS). Wal-Mart’s outgoing international chief and soon-to-be CEO Mike Duke said in October that Chile’s economy is strong and growing, Bloomberg reported.

• As its quarterly profits missed estimates, drugstore operator Walgreen Co. (WAG) said it is cutting back on plans to open more stores. Profit fell to $408 million, or 41 cents a share, in its fiscal first quarter ended Nov. 30, Reuters reported.

• Palm, Inc. (PALM) yesterday (Monday) secured a much needed $100 million equity investment from Elevation Partners, a venture capital firm that includes Bono, lead singer for the rock band U2, BetaNews reported. Palm a maker of mobile electronic devices, will use the money to help launch a smartphone that will be compete with Apple’s 3G iPhone.

• UBS AG (UBS) will sell its Canadian energy operations and global agriculture business to JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Reuters reported. JPMorgan is buying Canadian Energy, UBS’ Canadian-based commodities energy business, as well as UBS’ London-based Global Agricultural Commodities business.

• Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell $2.45, nearly 6%, on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday (Monday) to settle at $39.91 a barrel. Crude prices have now fallen 70% from their July peak of $147.47 a barrel.

Source: Global Investing Roundups Tuesday, December 23rd, 2008

Global wheat production will likely be 4.4% less next year, Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co. in Chicago, told Bloomberg News. Basse believes the world’s corn and soybean crops will also see declines.

“The credit situation is worrying even the biggest and best farmers,” Brian Willot, a former University of Missouri commodity analyst who now grows soybeans in Brazil, told Bloomberg. “For the financially weak, credit has dried up completely. For the strong, credit has been delayed and interest rates are higher.”

The risk-aversion of Wall Street is spreading out into other industries, as the main sources of lending for farmers – rural independent banks and crop processors such as Cargill Inc. and Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM) – tighten credit requirements by charging higher interest, demanding more collateral or in some cases, discontinue lending completely.

“We certainly could see tight credit having an effect on agricultural production,” U.S. Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer said earlier this month. “The costs of farming operations today are huge, and that backs up to the banks that have balance sheets that are tight, it backs up to elevators that have credit stretched out.”

Worse, drops in agriculture yields could be devastating to more than just the agriculture industry.

“Stockpiles are going to be extremely tight,” AgResource’s Basse told Bloomberg. “The world cannot afford any dislocation in production next year, or there will be a real shortage.”

The United Nation’s World Food Programme says the world is already gripped in a “silent tsunami” of hunger. And every drop in production pushes more of the world’s hungry towards the brink of starvation.

“It is estimated that more than 100 million people in the world have been forced into poverty and hunger because of the dramatic increase in food prices,” said Benjamin Senauer, a professor of applied economics at the University of Minnesota, author and researcher, MarketWatch reported. “Millions of American families’ food budgets have been stretched to the limit and beyond. Food stamp enrollment is up and food banks are seeing unprecedented demand.”

Smaller crops could mean higher prices at a time when consumers were just starting to see some slight signs of relief in the grocery store checkout line.

The change in food and beverage prices, as tracked by the U.S. Department of Labor, had moderated slightly in August and September after the record-highs of the summer. But even off the summertime highs, the overall Consumer Price Index increased 4.9% for the 12 months ended September 2008. In the food and beverage category, the increase was 6.0% year-over-year.

Agriculture futures for corn, wheat and soybeans are trading lower from earlier 2008 highs, but a steep decline in crop yields could cause future prices to reverse course.

Source: Tight Credit for Farmers Leads to Smaller Crops, Higher Prices and More Hunger

Five years ago, almost no one believed that oil prices would soar past $30 per barrel. $50 seemed utterly unthinkable. As oil prices continued climbing, so did disbelief. The skeptics never abandoned their misguided notion that oil was “overpriced.” So when crude retreated from $75 to $50 early last year, the prospect of $100 oil seemed like a ridiculous prediction

Due of Peak Oil, the prices of agricultural commodities are going much higher…

Most of the agricultural markets have had a big move already, but these markets could easily suffer a big correction from current levels. The long-term investor will want to buy these markets on weakness, not sell them.

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A hundred years ago, the average American spent about 45% of annual income on food. Today, that figure is down to about 15%. So we’ve been taking cheap food for granted and have spent our “extra” cash on plasma TVs and leased BMWs.

We don’t worry about food costs or whether it will be readily available tomorrow. But the agricultural markets may have some major surprises in store for complacent Americans…and unprepared investors:

While shortages of key industrial and energy commodities are frightening, no sector will threaten global stability more than agriculture…

In 2007, we saw stark glimpses of just how bad this situation will get. The “Tortilla Crisis” in Mexico, the “Pasta Protest” in Italy, the riots and crushing of one supermarket shopper in China over cooking oil… We have seen dairy, meat, and bread prices skyrocket.

It’s ironic that as global population is reaching an all-time high, we are turning a huge percentage of our crops into ethanol or biofuel…

This questionable, if not idiotic, alternative produces little, if any, short-term benefit and considerable long-term harm — both to the quality of farmland and to the integrity and stability of the global agriculture markets. In other words, using food as fuel can make a big mess out of the global food supply…and the prices that we all pay for that supply.

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This will have worse effects on the U.S. economy than 9/11…and it’s only a hoax…

The U.S. has been lied to for decades and the government is just now figuring it out…and there hasn’t been a public announcement because it will cause hiatus on Wall Street… We know the hoax and how you can make killer profits off of it…

To find out what Bush was informed behind closed doors and how to make a fortune from it… Click here for more info…

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From sea to shining sea, the U.S. has croplands as far as the eye can see. For years, its bounty has been a supermarket for the world. Now it’s a fuel station, too.

China, which has hundreds of millions more hungry mouths than we have, has far less arable farmland. And worse, China has far fewer controls in place to regulate farming methods.

Trends like these strongly suggest that the agricultural markets will imitate the price action of the energy markets. As investors, we must look at this situation as an opportunity…

We should be looking to buy stocks of some of the key agricultural companies that help support the industry: those dealing with equipment makers, fertilizer, irrigation, and transport.

In my own portfolios, I have exposure to soybeans, wheat, and corn. I also think the soft commodities are much undervalued: coffee, cocoa, sugar, and cotton. These markets are also poised to move much higher…

The planet is not running out of food, but it might be running out of cheap food. So stock up your pantry and start shopping for the kinds of investments that will prosper during the coming agriculture boom.

Regards,
Kevin Kerr

P.S.: Agriculture is a profitable market and safe bet for several years…but there’s another market out there that’s a lot more lucrative, a lot less obvious. We’ll give you a sneak peak to find out how to make easy millions. To find out what his hot market it… Click here…

Source: A Grainy Picture

Buenos Aires, Argentina May 30, 2008

*** Four months ago China was brought to its knees in the face of the most ferocious meteor of the last 50 years, succumbing to its vulnerability to the uncontrollable and unmanageable force of nature. Today those knees have been literally broken after another dramatic and uncontrollable event for China: a devastating earthquake in Sichuan province, in the South West that killed and buried more than 56,000 people (and that number is rising every day…), injured 300,000 and 30,000 are still missing.

China normally enjoys a position of worldwide domination and control when it comes to internal policies that silence their opponents, and the development of an economy that exports deflation, and in protecting its industry and monetary competitiveness. However, in the face of these natural disasters, China find it can do little more than kneel and beg for aid from the very world it attempts to dominate whenever possible.

Chinese agriculture has once again been adversely affected in Sichuan as well as in other zones of disaster in the last few months. 34,000 hectares of farmland and irrigation systems have been destroyed in some areas: ““up to 100,000 hectares of rice paddies might have to be used to grow alternative crops”, the China Daily reported. Additionally, farming machinery and facilities have been damaged and 12.5 million head of poultry and livestock has been killed….

As the country’s leading agricultural province, Sichuan provides 6% of the nation’s total grain output which includes 5% of the national total summer grain production, 8% of the total vegetable oil crops and 5% percent of the total vegetable production, said Wei Chao’an, Vice Agriculture Minister, speaking to the China Daily.

China food inflation surged to 22% in April. Through enacting price controls in areas hit by these disasters, the government is trying to cap inflation, that came in at 8.5% for April.

It is important to note that China has also been imposing agricultural export restrictions, increasing tariffs and imposing export quotas after inflation skyrocketed to its highest level in 12 years during February while at the same time 40% of the country’s inflation comes from the international price increases, according to Chinese economists.

It is like trying to extinguish a fire using a bucket of gasoline.

Also, China continues to import products that keep rising in price, from food to energy. We must remain aware that oil and corn are part of our everyday life in the form of plastics to toothpaste.

On the other hand, China is net exporter of agricultural products, which means that higher export restrictions will actually create the opposite effect to what they are trying to avoid in the process – that being it will bring about inflation. In restricting the international food supply they are generating a greater increase in international prices.

China has also increased subsidies to farmers in hopes they will raise more pork and cultivate more grains. Ultimately these measures do little more than to create relative price distortions while at the same time they discourage farmers from producing more of the same.

As quoted in the China Daily, Qi Jingmei, a senior economist at the State Information Center, noted that “The Chinese market is linked to the global market by thousands of threads. You can’t cut them off completely”.

As the country is imposing restrictions to food exports, it is opening its state food reserves of wheat, rice and pork in a move to contain inflation. Huang Jikun, of the Chinese Agricultural Policy Center noted that: “The potential for prices to go up may well rise in future, because you can’t always tap the grain reserves.”

These reserves could in turn run out in a few months, especially if the farmers decide to turn to the production of more profitable commodities in the face of depressed domestic prices. And if you combine this scenario with a policy of export restrictions an explosive cocktail could be generated when the world finds out that China is returning to participate actively in the world-wide grain purchase.

Production will increase 17 percent from a year earlier to 1.78 billion bushels, the most since 1998, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts. About 4 percent more acres were seeded from September to November, the agency said. Wheat prices have tumbled 45 percent from a record $13.495 a bushel on Feb. 27.

“High prices beget low prices,” said Dan Kuechenmeister, a manager of the commodities department at RBC Dain Rauscher in Minneapolis. “We’ve seen a lot of wheat planted, and we’re finally going to get a decent harvest.”

Prices will rise again, so now is a great time to invest in a livestock ETF, says Ian Davis in The Growth Stock Wire: “Hog farmers are not running charities. When the input costs for hog producers soar, the price of hogs must also rise. By buying hogs, we are piggybacking (excuse the pun) on the uptrend in agriculture and crude oil.

“So when the uptrend finally begins, how should we play it?”

Read on how to profit when this upswing kicks in with this livestock ETF.

“When the gold price rises, jewelry gets more expensive,” says Tom Dyson in DailyWealth. It’s the same way with farm animals. When the corn price rises, livestock must get more expensive. Corn has doubled in the past 18 months, but livestock prices are still in the same range they were six years ago. They will catch up with corn.”

Tom also recommends that his readers invest in a livestock ETF.

“Two trade in London under the symbols CATL.L and HOGS.L,” says Tom. “They track the Dow Jones AIG sub-indexes for live cattle and hogs.”

Food prices have undergone a paradigm shift and will not drop back to pre-crisis levels for at least the next 10 years, putting long-term pressure on governments facing the food crisis, according to a forthcoming report.

The report, by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation, will say food prices have moved to a “higher plateau” because of rising demand from the biofuels industry and developing countries such as China.

Bill Bonner in The Daily Reckoning says, “Capitalism had already pronounced its verdict on corn-based fuel: it was a bad idea. Later, environmentalists came to the same conclusion; it actually caused more damage than petroleum. But the US Congress, in its majestic wisdom, saw something in ethanol that capitalists and environmentalists had missed – campaign contributions and votes!

“And so it came to be that a large portion of the US corn crop is diverted into fuel tanks. And so it comes to be that a large number of the world’s people – including Americans themselves – find their food much more expensive than it used to be.”

This from The World Tribune:

Scientists and international organizations focused on controlling wheat stem rust have said 90 percent of world wheat lines are susceptible to Ug99. The situation is particularly critical in light of the existing worldwide wheat shortage.

The fungus causes dark orange pustules on stems and leaves of infected plants. The pustules can completely girdle stems, damaging their conducting tissue and preventing grain fill. Yield losses may reach 70 percent, while some fields are totally destroyed. If stem rust arrives early in the growing cycle, losses are higher. Spores released by the fungal pustules are spread by the wind and may travel great distances in storms.

“The soaring price of agricultural commodities like wheat, corn and soybeans is one of the biggest news stories on the planet right now,” says Kevin Kerr in The Daily Reckoning.

“The hope that the commodity bubble will burst is also a fantasy. The fact of the matter is that we are in a new paradigm for commodities and the old-school thinking about how commodities used to be traded has to be changed. And this is true of most commodities – none more so than the agricultural ones. Sure, speculation is a part of this puzzle, but to say it’s all speculators and hedge funds that are causing the run-up is a sad mistake.”

Bill Bonner theory is that “the feds’ inflation will goose up prices of commodities, gold, consumer prices and oil – but not the real economy.

“So far, that seems to be what is happening. The CRB commodities index is up 24% since last September. Oil has gone up 25% this year. Natural gas has risen 49%. Gold, meanwhile, has only gone up 4.8% in 2008…but this is after a correction; remember it was over $1,000 just a few weeks ago.”

I am racking up the frequent flyer miles this year. My travels in 2008 have taken me to exotic locales like Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai, as well as somewhat less exotic locales like the American Midwest. But guess what, the Midwest is the place that’s making the headlines in Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai. The soaring price of agricultural commodities like wheat, corn and soybeans is one of the biggest news stories on the planet right now.

But ag commodities aren’t just a huge news story, they are also one of the most exciting trading opportunities of 2008 and beyond.

Whether my travels take me to the Middle East or the Midwest of the U.S., the stories are very similar. Most people are concerned about the rising costs of agricultural commodities. And they should be. The commodity boom is real. It is not a bubble, no matter how many folks wish that it were.

In fact, now you have all of these dollar bulls coming out and saying that the worst is over for the dollar and that the commodity bubble will soon burst. They say that the commodities markets are simply speculator-driven. I disagree. Do you remember as a child wishing for something, wishing so hard, yet it didn’t come true? Wishing for something to happen does not mean it will be so. (I never did get that red bike.)

The dollar will probably bounce a little higher, but the same problems that drove the dollar into the basement will persist, and even worsen. The Fed can’t just snap its fingers and wipe away a credit crisis with some stimulus checks. Too many folks are subscribing to the idea that the consumer will somehow come to the rescue and spend our way out of recession. That’s pure fantasy.

The hope that the commodity bubble will burst is also a fantasy. The fact of the matter is that we are in a new paradigm for commodities and the old-school thinking about how commodities used to be traded has to be changed. And this is true of most commodities – none more so than the agricultural ones. Sure, speculation is a part of this puzzle, but to say it’s all speculators and hedge funds that are causing the run-up is a sad mistake.

As I sit here writing this column, I am watching CNN out of the corner of my eye, and on the air is Jonathan Stevens, a baker from a Massachusetts company called Hungry Ghost Bread. He is starting to grow his own wheat and encouraging his customers to do the same. Not a bad idea. For a 50-pound bag of organic flour, he used to pay $25, but now pays around $60. So in back of the store, the bakers are now growing their own wheat. Now, while farming in your backyard may not seem very practical, it’s becoming part of a new reality: If you want to be sure you have the food you need – absolutely sure – you’ll want to grow it where you live.

Most of the world’s inhabitants already understand this essential reality. America’s are just starting to re-discover it. In fact, we’ve even made up a new word to describe this ancient necessity of growing food where you live. The word is “locavore” and it means someone who eats food grown locally. Wow! Very trendy!

Demand for ag commodities is real and it is worldwide. Meanwhile, supplies are stretched thin. So any “supply shock” has the potential to cause prices to soar even higher. A new supply shock might be developing right under our noses. The planting season here in the U.S. is getting off to a very bad start, as the weather has been awful. Torrential rains have flooded many fields, making planting impossible. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that only 10% of the corn crop west of the Mississippi has been planted, compared to a five-year average of 35% for this time of year.

Plantings for soybeans, spring-wheat and rice are also trailing behind their five-year averages.

Therefore, this year’s corn crop could be extremely disappointing. Some of the other crops might also disappoint. In my trading service, Resource Trader Alert , we are betting on much higher prices in soybeans and corn, and we are using option spreads to take advantage of this.

My annual meetings with Midwest farmers are always helpful. But my recent meetings with farmers in Minnesota were particularly helpful. Not only did I gain some insights about this year’s crops, I also learned a great deal about the soaring prices of fertilizers and other farming “inputs.” The long and short of it is that input costs are rising about as fast as commodity prices. So many farmers are getting squeezed.

And these rising input costs are here to stay, which probably means that rising grain prices are also here to stay. Yes, prices will fluctuate dramatically. But the bull market in agricultural commodities is very, very real.

Why deny it? Why not trade it?

Regards,

Kevin Kerr
for The Daily Reckoning

Unfortunately, there is still no specific ETF for rice. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t any commodities ETFs to help investors profit from the rise in rice and grain prices.

“Commodity service-providers have launched a blizzard of commodities ETFs over the last 12 months,” says Eric Roseman in the Offshore A-Letter.

“These new ETFs allow both individual and institutional investors access to hot commodities like coffee, wheat, sugar and corn, to name only a few.

“It’s no wonder investors have poured an extra US$30 billion into commodities within the first 60 days of the year alone compared to just US$10 billion in 1998. The boom has arrived and everyone wants a piece of the action as the dollar slides, rates plunge and emerging markets feed their bustling infrastructure and populations.”

Global ETF specialist Mike Burnick is also bullish on commodities ETFs.

“I’m really excited about the relatively new class of ETFs that were launched just in the last few years that track commodities. As you know, commodities have been a red-hot investment over the last – really, over the last five or six years of this bull market. We’ve seen crude oil more than double; some of the industrial metals have more than tripled; gold is up above $950 an ounce.

“Now, on the London Stock Exchange, there’s a company that listed a whole series of ETFs that cover everything in the commodities sector that you could imagine. Everything from aluminum to zinc, and everything in between. I’m really excited about these agricultural commodities.”

Read Mike’s article on hot ETFs.