For those of us who predict stuff for a living, this is one of those lovely moments in economics when we know for a fact that only one of two things will happen in the near future. We now know one thing for a fact… that in the first third of the second quarter of 2009, American retailers paid more and sold less, both by price and by unit. Simple arithmetic tells you that this means lower profits.

Brazilian stocks have been pummeled in October’s global market rout. But Martin Hutchinson says this has created a great opportunity for investors. South America’s largest economy still has a robust growth outlook and moderate inflation. These six “bargain basement” stocks are now well worth a look.

Forget the credit crunch for a moment. We are now in the early stages of a global “food crunch” that could have far more serious consequences. Take a look at the price of rice, a global food staple that feeds half the world.