The global population is peaking and is consuming more food than it’s producing. This will make food scarcer and cause it to rise in price.

But there are more subtle reasons for investing in commodities right now. Rogers says that although stocks may touch crazy valuations in the near term, they may be in worthless currencies – a vista Notes readers will be familiar with. This from a recent interview with Rogers in the Economic Times:

Central banks all over the world have printed huge amounts of money, and the real economy is not strong enough for all this money to be absorbed… so, it’s going into stocks and real assets such as commodities. It’s a mistake what they are doing. It’s giving short-term pleasure, but there’s long-term pain as we are going to have much higher inflation, much higher interest rates and a worse economy down the road.

The American bond market is already beginning to go down dramatically as people realize that the American government has to sell huge amount of bonds, and secondly, there is going to be inflation, serious inflation, as it was always in the past when you had governments printing huge amounts of money.

The fiscal deluge is lifting stocks. But they’re getting frothy. And Rogers reckons the current upward trend won’t last.

It’s going to snap. Later this year, next year, we are going to have currency problems, maybe even a currency crisis. I don’t know with which currency — maybe with the pound sterling, maybe with the US dollar, who knows. It maybe with something none of us have at the moment. When you have a currency crisis, stocks will be affected, many things will be affected. It is not sound, what’s happening out there in the world.

In the 1930s, we had a huge stock market bubble which popped. And then politicians started making many mistakes. They became protectionist. They made solvent banks take over insolvent banks and then both banks failed in the end.

They are doing many of the same mistakes now. What’s different this time is that we are printing huge amounts of money which they did not print at that time. So, we are going to have inflation this time.

There are a number of ways to play this scenario with hard assets. But to keep things simple, you may want to focus on the following three market-beating commodities ETFs (hat tip ETF Trends).

1) The iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed ETF (NYSE:GSG), up 8.1% for the year

2) Notes’ old favorite, the PowerShares DB Agricultural Fund (NYSE:DBA), up 7.5% for the year

3) The Market Vectors-RVE Hard Asset Producers ETF (NYSE:HAP), up 25.9% for the year

Renewed Midwest rains has corn and soybean prices through the roof, reports AP. Corn prices and soybean prices hit all-time highs following more heavy rains in Midwestern states, which left replanted crops once again under water.

Widespread belief that the Fed has failed to keep inflation in check is further supporting high corn prices, reports Bloomberg.

Rising Food Costs

By Kevin Kerr

We’ve been hearing for some time now about the rising costs of food in this country. The reason for these high costs are not as simple as some people think. Not only are we seeing record prices for grains and other crops, but also the high cost of fuel is making the harvesting of the crops in particular, as well as the simple shipping of the food across the country very expensive. Some prices are already out of hand and could still have a ways to go.

Making Tough Choices

I know what is going on inside the heads of the farmers. This spring, I went to visit farms in the Midwest, as I do every year.

It was a Saturday in mid-April when I pulled up to the Miller Armstrong Building in the sleepy farm town of Waseca, Minn. Waseca is also home to a federal penitentiary and Jeff Skilling, former Enron CEO and allegedly one of the “smartest guys in the room.” Now he is a convicted felon, serving time.

I drove into town and watched the cattle grazing outside the prison. I wondered for a moment if those cows knew they had a famous neighbor. They didn’t seem to care. The cows seemed more concerned about where to find some food. It was certainly foreshadowing what I was about to hear from the farmers.

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The High Price of Ignorance

I was greeted by my friend and Outstanding Investments subscriber Geb Singlestad. Geb escorted me to a casual meeting at the Armstrong hall building. Charlie Nedoss of Peak Trading and about 15 other farmers accompanied me. One reporter showed up. Everyone introduced themselves, and we all grabbed some coffee. I spoke with the reporter for a few minutes, and the meeting began.

The thing about small-town America is everyone is friendly, but cautious. Geb invited all these farmers to the meeting. Later on, we learned that most of them thought we were there to sell them something… We were not.

Most of the farmers showed up out of respect for Geb, because he is a sort of patriarch in the community. He had just had knee surgery and was already getting around just fine. Amazing, don’t you think? The meeting was scheduled to last about 45 minutes, but once it got going, we covered so much ground and there were so many questions that we ended up being there for two and a half hours.

The questions came fast and furious. One farmer asked, “Do these people in Washington or in the cities know how much we are paying for our input costs? Do they have any clue how much the farmer is being squeezed?”

The best question of all, in my opinion, was asked a few times. “What will it take? How high will prices have to go to get people to change?”

I said that I think prices will have to go much, much higher before urbanites even consider switching off American Idol and protesting in the street. The farmers realize that most people in the country have no idea about either the process or the cost of what it takes to get their dinner from field to fork.

One farmer belted out, “As long as they have groceries on the shelves, lights on, the ATMs working and their jobs, then all is well. They don’t have a clue.”

Ethanol Rolls Along

There has always been a line between city and suburb dwellers and their rural counterparts. Most people in urban areas have little understanding of how much work goes into generating our food supply and then transporting it to each and every city.

Just the volume of diesel fuel usage to grow the crops is astounding. Agriculture is a very fuel-intensive undertaking. With diesel prices topping $5 and rising, the costs continue to climb at the grocery store.

After our meeting with the farmers, Geb took Charlie and me to see the newest ethanol plant being built in Janesville, Minn. This new structure is a 110-million-gallon ethanol plant. It has several rail lines being built to run directly into the plant. The outside of the building itself is huge. The towering cranes were working full tilt while we were there, and the parking lot was full of workers’ cars. The one thing that neither Charlie nor I saw was a water supply. An ethanol plant uses a huge amount of water, so where will it come from?

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It seems with ethanol, as with so many things, the answer from the government often comes after a major project is already well under way. For the last eight years, the Bush administration has seemed to be more likely to do first and fix later. What’s the old saying? “Better to ask for forgiveness than permission.”

Anyway, the ethanol plant has provided many good jobs in the area and is slated to produce a real boom for the local economy. That’s all well and good, but is it sustainable?

The High Price of Low Living

With egg prices surging 26 percent and milk prices near record levels, consumers are making very difficult choices. My own aunt leaned into me at dinner recently and said, “Ya know, I bought a container of whipping cream and it was $7. That’s crazy.” Yes, it is crazy, and the even more insane thing is that prices may well have much further to go.

The farmers I met with are struggling with some of the highest input costs they have ever faced, and for some, it means that with all the massive expenses of running a farm, their margins are shrinking fast. Most of the farmers wondered what I think would happen if food stopped showing up on shelves in the city and the power went out and the ATMs shut down. You know what would happen? Panic.

The divide between the food source and the end-users is wide. As costs continue to skyrocket, we better begin to appreciate and support our farmers, because the long emergency is here and time is running out.

As I said my goodbyes to the farmers, Scott walked with me on his farm and showed me all his new farm equipment. One tractor, a John Deere, looked brand-new. He told me that Deere (NYSE: DE) simply has no equipment in stock, because sales are so red-hot. He said it’s much the same for Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) and others. So even as the farmers complain about higher input costs and consumers in the cities complain about higher food costs, the beat goes on.

The solutions are not at all clear, but it is obvious that we need to begin to think locally. Food sources will need to be closer to the final consumers. The old way is simply not sustainable anymore.

In the brave new world, we will all likely have to become “locavores.” A locavore is someone who eats food grown locally. That would be a major shift difficult for most of us to fathom. But like it or not, it’s a change that is not going to be a choice. It will happen regardless of how much we fight it. Really, the question is how high of prices are we willing to pay in the meantime.

Regards,
Kevin Kerr

P.S.: Of course, we wouldn’t all be forced to consume only locally grown food if the price for fuel wasn’t so astronomically high. Until we can figure out a way to produce more oil domestically, we’ll be forced to depend on imports from overseas. In most industries that isn’t such a big deal, but with oil it can be a tricky situation. We’re not really dealing with the most savory characters. Click here to read the full story of why the oil we’re importing is so expensive and how things will get worse before they get better…

Source: Rising Food Costs

Cheap corn, after all, is behind the miracle of the American fast food industry.

Corn prices have risen more than 80% in the past year. But a return to dry weather in Midwest has helped crops in some states hard hit by recent flooding, accroding to the Department of Agriculture.

We could see a short-term easing of prices. According to AP: “Corn for December delivery fell 11.75 cents to settle at $7.475 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, after earlier dipping as low as $7.44. The contract hit an all-time trading high of $7.915 a bushel on June 16.”

The Iowa Floods Send America Into a Season of Hoarding

By James Howard Kunstler

A catastrophe for Iowa farmers in the United States will not be just a catastrophe for Midwestern Americans. In the Iowa floods, we’ll see more evidence of how the problems of weird weather (climate change) combine and ramify the problems associated with Peak Oil. In this particular case they lead to an inflection point sometime around the 2008 harvest season, which will also be our time of political harvest.

These are not your daddy’s or granddaddy’s floods. These are 500-year floods, events not seen before non-Indian people starting living out on that stretch of the North American prairie. The vast majority of homeowners in Eastern Iowa did not have flood insurance because the likelihood of being affected above the 500-year-line was so miniscule – their insurance agents actually advised them against getting it. The personal ruin out there will be comprehensive and profound, a wet version of the 1930s Dust Bowl, with families facing total loss and perhaps migrating elsewhere in the nation because they have no home to go back to.

Iowa in 2008 will be an even slower-motion disaster than Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Beyond the troubles of 25,000 people who have lost all their material possessions is a world whose grain reserves stand at record lows. The crop losses in Iowa will aggravate what is already a pretty dire situation.

So far, the US Public has experienced the world grain situation mainly in higher supermarket prices. Cheap corn is behind the magic of the American processed food industry – all those pizza pockets and juicy-juice boxes that frantic Americans resort to because they have no time between two jobs and family-chauffeur duties to actually cook (note: reheating is not cooking).

Behind that magic is an agribusiness model of farming cranked up on the steroids of cheap oil and cheap natural-gas-based fertilizer. Both of these inputs have recently entered the realm of the non-cheap. Oil-and-gas-based farming had already reached a crisis stage before the flood of Iowa. Diesel fuel is a dollar-a-gallon higher than gasoline. Natural gas prices have doubled over the past year, sending fertilizer prices way up. American farmers are poorly positioned to reform their practices. All that cheap fossil fuel masks a tremendous decay of skill in husbandry. The farming of the decades ahead will be a lot more complicated than just buying x-amount of inputs (on credit) to be dumped on a sterile soil growth medium and spread around with giant diesel-powered machines.

Like a lot of other activities in American life these days, agribusiness is unreformable along its current lines. It will take a convulsion to change it, and in that convulsion it will be dragged kicking-and-screaming into a new reality. As that occurs, the U.S. public will have to contend with more than just higher taco chip prices.

We’re heading into the Vale of Malthus – Thomas Robert Malthus, the British economist-philosopher who introduced the notion that eventually world population would overtake world food production capacity. Malthus has been scorned and ridiculed in recent decades, as fossil fuel-cranked farming allowed the global population to go vertical. Techno-triumphalist observers who should have known better attributed this to the green revolution of bio-engineering. Malthus is back now, along with his outriders: famine, pestilence, and war.

We’re headed, it seems, toward a fall crunch time, and that crunching sound will not be of cheez doodles and taco chips consumed on the sofas of America. I think we’re heading into a season of hoarding. As the presidential campaign moves into its final round, Americans may be hard-up for both food and gasoline. On the oil scene, the next event on the horizon is not just higher prices but shortages. Chances are, they will occur first in the Southeast states because oil exports from Mexico and Venezuela feeding the Gulf of Mexico refineries are down more than 30 percent over 2007.

Perhaps more ominous is the discontent on the trucking scene. Truckers are going broke in droves, unable to carry on their business while getting paid US $2,000 for loads that cost them US $3000 to deliver. In Europe last week, enraged truckers paralyzed the food distribution networks of Spain and Portugal. The passivity of U.S. truckers so far has been a striking feature of the general zombification of American life. They might continue to just crawl off one-by-one and die. But it’s also possible that, at some point, they’ll mount a Night-of-the-Living-Dead offensive and take their vengeance out on the system that has brought them to ruin. America has only about a three-day supply of food in any of its supermarkets.

The yet-more-ominous thing here is that shortages of food and oil are two fiascos that are pretty clearly predictable for the second half of the year. That’s bad enough without figuring in the unknowns that could kick up American hardship a few more notches. The hurricane season just got underway – obscured for the moment by the bigger weather story in Iowa. The fate of the banks is a train wreck still waiting to happen. As it occurs – also heading into the high political and hurricane seasons – we could find ourselves not only a nation wet, hungry, and out-of-gas, but also completely broke. I’m sorry that Tim Russert will not be here to talk Americans through it all.

James Howard Kunstler
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

Source: The Iowa Floods Send America Into a Season of Hoarding