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	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; Airline Fleets</title>
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		<title>Airlines Go Broke, Again</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/airlines-go-broke-again/1312</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/airlines-go-broke-again/1312#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Apr 2008 12:10:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Andrew Mickey</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Politics & Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AAR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AIR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Air Traffic Control]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Air Traffic Control Systems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airline Fleets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airline Stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AMR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Costly Delays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fuel Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LUV]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pilots Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US Air]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US Air Force]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/airlines-go-broke-again/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>I’ve always considered airlines to be, hands down, the <em>easiest</em> way to lose money in the markets.</p>
<p>An industry with strong unions, a high degree of government regulation (some of it certainly justified, like safety), and competition willing to take large losses to maintain market share just doesn’t get me interested.  </p>
<p>And yet, now that the airlines are on the verge of collapse once again, I’ve realized there is opportunity in this beaten-down sector. Airline stocks are falling across the board, and the contrarian inside me is starting to get interested.</p>
<p>When stocks go on sale and fear is running rampant, that’s when I think about becoming a buyer. Right now there is no perhaps no bigger firesale than the one going on&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I’ve always considered airlines to be, hands down, the <em>easiest</em> way to lose money in the markets.</p>
<p>An industry with strong unions, a high degree of government regulation (some of it certainly justified, like safety), and competition willing to take large losses to maintain market share just doesn’t get me interested.<script>  <!-- D(["mb","\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAnd yet, now that the airlines are on the verge of collapse once again, I’ve  realized there is opportunity in this beaten-down sector. Airline stocks are  falling across the board, and the contrarian inside me is starting to get  interested.  \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhen stocks go on sale and fear is running rampant, that’s when I think  about becoming a buyer. Right now there is no perhaps no bigger firesale than  the one going on in the airline sector. This perpetually cash-strapped industry  is on the verge of yet another round of bankruptcies… and this time the problem  is far bigger than declining ticket revenues.  \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe problems run deep. Simply charging an extra $5 for a meal or hawking  some designer sunglasses for $200 apiece isn’t going to save the airlines. A  renegotiated contract with the pilots’ union isn’t going to help much, either.  These cost-reducing activities just delay the inevitable.  \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe United States airline industry is truly on the brink. As it stands,  things could get bad enough for the government to step in and just run the  whole deal. If you think delays and cancellations are bad now, you haven’t seen  anything yet. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe Airlines’ Dirty Little Secret\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe airlines have many problems, but one in particular  stands to bring the entire industry to its knees. It’s true that record-high  fuel prices are killing profits and outdated air traffic control systems are  creating costly delays and cancellations. But the truly big problem is age. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe majority of aircraft in U.S. airline fleets are between 20 and 30 years  old. Now, that’s not much of a concern for the time being. After all, the U.S.  Air Force is still flying around B-52s that saw action in Korea.  \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAirframes last a long time, but maintaining them costs a lot, too. In the  case of the B-52s, it takes about $4 million a year in maintenance expenses  just to keep a single plane up in the air. Airlines simply don’t have the cash  to pay for maintenance on their fleets.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThat’s it, plain and simple. Old jets are bogging down the entire domestic  airline industry. We’re just starting to see the impact of the problem.  ",1] );  //--></script></p>
<p>And yet, now that the airlines are on the verge of collapse once again, I’ve realized there is opportunity in this beaten-down sector. Airline stocks are falling across the board, and the contrarian inside me is starting to get interested.</p>
<p>When stocks go on sale and fear is running rampant, that’s when I think about becoming a buyer. Right now there is no perhaps no bigger firesale than the one going on in the airline sector. This perpetually cash-strapped industry is on the verge of yet another round of bankruptcies… and this time the problem is far bigger than declining ticket revenues.</p>
<p>The problems run deep. Simply charging an extra $5 for a meal or hawking some designer sunglasses for $200 apiece isn’t going to save the airlines. A renegotiated contract with the pilots’ union isn’t going to help much, either. These cost-reducing activities just delay the inevitable.</p>
<p>The United States airline industry is truly on the brink. As it stands, things could get bad enough for the government to step in and just run the whole deal. If you think delays and cancellations are bad now, you haven’t seen anything yet.</p>
<p><strong>The Airlines’ Dirty Little Secret</strong></p>
<p>The airlines have many problems, but one in particular stands to bring the entire industry to its knees. It’s true that record-high fuel prices are killing profits and outdated air traffic control systems are creating costly delays and cancellations. But the truly big problem is age.</p>
<p>The majority of aircraft in U.S. airline fleets are between 20 and 30 years old. Now, that’s not much of a concern for the time being. After all, the U.S. Air Force is still flying around B-52s that saw action in Korea.</p>
<p>Airframes last a long time, but maintaining them costs a lot, too. In the case of the B-52s, it takes about $4 million a year in maintenance expenses just to keep a single plane up in the air. Airlines simply don’t have the cash to pay for maintenance on their fleets.</p>
<p>That’s it, plain and simple. Old jets are bogging down the entire domestic airline industry. We’re just starting to see the impact of the problem.<script>  <!-- D(["mb","\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn March, for example, \u003cstrong\u003eSouthwest  Airlines (LUV:NYSE)\u003c/strong\u003e had to ground 38 jets. The problem was fuselage cracks.  In Southwest’s defense, this is a problem affecting many older aircraft. If  inspected and deemed safe, it’s not much to worry about. When Southwest failed  to inspect the planes and regulators got wind of it, however, there was no  other solution than to ground a big part of the fleet. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLast week, American Airlines ran into similar troubles. The legacy airline,  owned and operated by \u003cstrong\u003eAMR (AMR:NYSE)\u003c/strong\u003e,  was forced to cancel more than 2,500 flights as the FAA discovered wiring  issues in almost half of American’s domestic fleet. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWiring problems…fuselage cracks…these aren’t widespread issues for new  planes. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eUnited We Stand…\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis problem affects nearly the entire industry on a  domestic level. At the same time, bad news for U.S. legacy carriers spells  profit opportunity for strong overseas competitors.  \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTake a look at EasyJet, for instance -- a European discount  airline franchise.  EasyJet’s airplane fleet  has an average age of just 2.3 years. In most cases, EasyJet is flying aircraft  two decades newer than U.S. based airlines. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis problem is nothing new for domestic air carriers. In my premium  investment advisory service, \u003cem\u003eBreakAway Investor, \u003c/em\u003ewe took a look at who  has the solution. After taking a top-down view of the industry, we selected \u003cstrong\u003eAAR (AIR:NYSE)\u003c/strong\u003e. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAAR provides maintenance services to the airline industry. In picking AAR, I  thought we isolated the company that had the solution. However, after holding  the stock for about a year, we noticed that sales weren’t increasing as fast as  they should, considering the state of airline fleets. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNow, I’m not going to sit here and say I knew about the cracks and wiring  problems. But we did uncover a big problem -- and the company with the solution  to that problem. That usually results in some pretty nice returns. In this case,  however, the airline industry just wasn’t spending as much on maintenance as we  expected.  \n",1] );  //--></script></p>
<p>In March, for example, <strong>Southwest Airlines (LUV:NYSE)</strong> had to ground 38 jets. The problem was fuselage cracks. In Southwest’s defense, this is a problem affecting many older aircraft. If inspected and deemed safe, it’s not much to worry about. When Southwest failed to inspect the planes and regulators got wind of it, however, there was no other solution than to ground a big part of the fleet.</p>
<p>Last week, American Airlines ran into similar troubles. The legacy airline, owned and operated by <strong>AMR (AMR:NYSE)</strong>, was forced to cancel more than 2,500 flights as the FAA discovered wiring issues in almost half of American’s domestic fleet.</p>
<p>Wiring problems…fuselage cracks…these aren’t widespread issues for new planes.</p>
<p><strong>United We Stand…</strong></p>
<p>This problem affects nearly the entire industry on a domestic level. At the same time, bad news for U.S. legacy carriers spells profit opportunity for strong overseas competitors.</p>
<p>Take a look at EasyJet, for instance &#8212; a European discount airline franchise. EasyJet’s airplane fleet has an average age of just 2.3 years. In most cases, EasyJet is flying aircraft two decades newer than U.S. based airlines.</p>
<p>This problem is nothing new for domestic air carriers. In my premium investment advisory service, <em>BreakAway Investor, </em>we took a look at who has the solution. After taking a top-down view of the industry, we selected <strong>AAR (AIR:NYSE)</strong>.</p>
<p>AAR provides maintenance services to the airline industry. In picking AAR, I thought we isolated the company that had the solution. However, after holding the stock for about a year, we noticed that sales weren’t increasing as fast as they should, considering the state of airline fleets.</p>
<p>Now, I’m not going to sit here and say I knew about the cracks and wiring problems. But we did uncover a big problem &#8212; and the company with the solution to that problem. That usually results in some pretty nice returns. In this case, however, the airline industry just wasn’t spending as much on maintenance as we expected.<script>  <!-- D(["mb","\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ctable width\u003d\"590\" border\u003d\"1\" align\u003d\"center\" cellpadding\u003d\"4\" style\u003d\"font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:14px\"\u003e\n  \u003ctr\u003e\n    \u003ctd width\u003d\"574\" bgcolor\u003d\"#F2EAD7\"\u003e\n      \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eExposed:  The Truth Behind Putin\u0026#39;s Stealth Attack on America!\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHe\u0026#39;s  got the world\u0026#39;s economy under his thumb, and his incredible power only  continues to grow. Now Vladimir Putin  is aiming to take down the U.S. economy and put Russia on top of the financial food  chain. My exclusive on-location report  from Russia is the only way you\u0026#39;ll learn how to protect yourself from his  dangerous game -- and bank gains of up to 443% this year fighting against it! His plans are already underway. The time to  act is now. \u003cu\u003e\u003ca href\u003d\"http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1467881/29544639/845219/303/\" target\u003d\"_blank\" onclick\u003d\"return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)\"\u003eRead on for complete details…\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/u\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n	\n	\u003c/td\u003e\n  \u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhen the markets started to dive and recession fears took hold, we knew the  airlines simply wouldn’t be laying out the necessary cash to keep up their  fleets. They simply couldn’t afford it. So we took a 25% gain on AAR and ran… fast. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIs there a solution to the aging aircraft issue? Not a near-term one. Bob  McAdoo, an analyst at the Prudential Equity Group, states, “Very few new planes  are scheduled for delivery to domestic airlines this year or next.” \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThat’s a problem for travelers in the United States, but an opportunity for  investors. Let me explain.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEverything’s New\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOver the winter, I took a six-country tour of Southeast Asia just to try and  get an idea of how the region is progressing. Although they are certainly in  different stages of development, these countries all have one thing in common: \u003cem\u003eEverything  is new.\u003c/em\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAirports, office building, apartment buildings, bridges… everything. It’s  all new. This was even more apparent in the airline industry. They’re all  buying brand-new planes. All 10 of my flights in the region were on a fairly  new aircraft.  ",1] );  //--></script></p>
<table border="1" align="center" width="590" cellPadding="4" style="font-size: 14px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">
<tr>
<td bgColor="#f2ead7" width="574"><strong>Exposed: The Truth Behind Putin&#8217;s Stealth Attack on America!</strong></p>
<p>He&#8217;s got the world&#8217;s economy under his thumb, and his incredible power only continues to grow. Now Vladimir Putin is aiming to take down the U.S. economy and put Russia on top of the financial food chain. My exclusive on-location report from Russia is the only way you&#8217;ll learn how to protect yourself from his dangerous game &#8212; and bank gains of up to 443% this year fighting against it! His plans are already underway. The time to act is now. <u><a target="_blank" href="http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1467881/29544639/845219/303/">Read on for complete details…</a></u></td>
</tr>
</table>
<p>When the markets started to dive and recession fears took hold, we knew the airlines simply wouldn’t be laying out the necessary cash to keep up their fleets. They simply couldn’t afford it. So we took a 25% gain on AAR and ran… fast.</p>
<p>Is there a solution to the aging aircraft issue? Not a near-term one. Bob McAdoo, an analyst at the Prudential Equity Group, states, “Very few new planes are scheduled for delivery to domestic airlines this year or next.”</p>
<p>That’s a problem for travelers in the United States, but an opportunity for investors. Let me explain.</p>
<p><strong>Everything’s New</strong></p>
<p>Over the winter, I took a six-country tour of Southeast Asia just to try and get an idea of how the region is progressing. Although they are certainly in different stages of development, these countries all have one thing in common: <em>Everything is new.</em></p>
<p>Airports, office building, apartment buildings, bridges… everything. It’s all new. This was even more apparent in the airline industry. They’re all buying brand-new planes. All 10 of my flights in the region were on a fairly new aircraft.<script>  <!-- D(["mb","\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe international airlines have a distinct advantage here, and aging  aircraft will be an ongoing problem for domestic airliners. The plunges in  share values over the past week are just the start. Once again, the airline  industry is the easiest place to lose money. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThat is, except among foreign carriers that have the  financial wherewithal and orders in place for new aircraft. They’ll be the ones  raking in profits from a global travel boom. Newfound emerging market wealth is  creating a lot of opportunity, and this is just one example.\n\u003cp\u003e\n\n\u003chr align\u003d\"center\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eTaipan Premium Investment Strategies\u003c/h4\u003e\n\n\u003cul\u003e\n  \u003cli\u003e\n    \u003cp\u003e\u003ca href\u003d\"http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1467881/29544639/846271/5870/\" target\u003d\"_blank\" onclick\u003d\"return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)\"\u003eCurrent credit crunch effects.\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n  \u003c/li\u003e\n  \u003cli\u003e\n    \u003cp\u003e\u003ca href\u003d\"http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1467881/29544639/846267/5871/\" target\u003d\"_blank\" onclick\u003d\"return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)\"\u003eLuxury retailers: Value versus quality.\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n  \u003c/li\u003e\n  \u003cli\u003e\n    \u003cp\u003e\u003ca href\u003d\"http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1467881/29544639/846270/303/\" target\u003d\"_blank\" onclick\u003d\"return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)\"\u003eSavvy players bet big on commodities.\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n  \u003c/li\u003e\n  \u003cli\u003e\n    \u003cp\u003e\u003ca href\u003d\"http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1467881/29544639/846269/5872/\" target\u003d\"_blank\" onclick\u003d\"return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)\"\u003eCommodities forecast.\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n  \u003c/li\u003e\n  \u003cli\u003e\n    \u003cp\u003eFor more investment strategies, visit \u003ca href\u003d\"http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1467881/29544639/838349/5218/\" target\u003d\"_blank\" onclick\u003d\"return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)\"\u003eTaipan Publishing Group.\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n  \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e \n\n\u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n  \n\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\n        \u003c/tr\u003e\n		  \n\n      \u003c/table\u003e\n	  \n    \u003c/td\u003e\n  \u003c/tr\u003e\n  \u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd\u003e      \u003chr align\u003d\"center\"\u003e\n  \u003cp align\u003d\"center\"\u003e\nHaving trouble  getting your emails? Add us to your address book. \u003ca href\u003d\"http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1467881/29544639/838937/247/\" target\u003d\"_blank\" onclick\u003d\"return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)\"\u003e",1] );  //--></script></p>
<p>The international airlines have a distinct advantage here, and aging aircraft will be an ongoing problem for domestic airliners. The plunges in share values over the past week are just the start. Once again, the airline industry is the easiest place to lose money.</p>
<p>That is, except among foreign carriers that have the financial wherewithal and orders in place for new aircraft. They’ll be the ones raking in profits from a global travel boom. Newfound emerging market wealth is creating a lot of opportunity, and this is just one example.</p>
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