Meanwhile, listed financials have gone from shaky to shaken.

That’s no coincidence. The fear surrounding banks sparked a stampede of financial capital. A lot of it has charged into the commodities sector. The tide of money flowing out of financials is gushing your way.

There are Always Good Resource Stocks…

But tangible assets…and resource companies…are a truly diverse bunch. They come in a variety of shapes, sizes, weights and uses. That diversity ensures there will always be something making gains. Commodity buyers always want more of something than there is available. That’s the beauty of resource investing. You have access to a constant stream of good investment ideas. It’s like a whole separate investment universe.

Unconvinced?

Well, the market was flat for all of February. But Alumina (ASX:AWC) was up 23% because Chinese aluminium demand sprouted wings. In the first half of March, the market was down 4.5%. But iron ore junior Midwest (ASX:MIS) had an explosive 20% gain thanks to a takeover offer.

Tangible assets are in a long-term bull market. Even when the whole share market is floundering… somebody, somewhere is making money in the resource sector. But in their haste for obvious profits, speculators can miss good opportunities.

There are two specific opportunities in particular we’re looking at. These come from two sectors of the Australian resource market that speculators haven’t blown up. Separately, they’re great companies. But together they combine two of the most profitable aspects of the resource boom, with synergies to boot.

We don’t expect this opportunity to stay at the price it is today, though. Money moves towards quality, and this pick is of a high standard. With that in mind, let’s quickly recap the exodus from financials to resources.

Funds Look for Inflation Safety in Commodities

Apart from the fact that resource stocks are in a historic bull-market, a lot of this buying motivation comes from inflation. Commodities tend to outperform other asset classes in an inflationary environment. Speculators are using the resource market as a shield against rising prices.

This is evident in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), which track the prices of the commodities they hold.

The Goldman Sachs Oil ETF has added around 22% since last year’s calendar came off the wall. The PowerShares DB Agricultural Fund is up 18%. StreetTRACKS gold ETF (NYSE:GLD) is up 16%.

Here’s an interesting one… the Powershares DB Base Metal Fund (AMEX:DBB). It’s up 13% over the last three months, despite most metals taking a breather.

These high commodity prices are pulling headline companies up with them. Global miner Xstrata (LON:XTA), for example, is up 7% for the year in London, despite the London market being down 13%.

Speculators have definitely moved into the hard asset market. But now that they’re here… what will they do next?

The Factors of Speculation

Different speculators hold different positions on the market’s direction. You could easily identify dozens of difference factors, all of which have the potential to drive the price of oil, wheat, or copper up and down. That leads to a lot of uncertainty, and a lot of people buying and selling.

But there are a few factors that matter more than the others. Here’s a short list of what the speculators are looking at, and what they mean for commodities in general.

1. Profit-taking from commodity gains

This one is unavoidable. Given that commodities are in an uptrend, every now and then speculators will choose to realise their gains. It will mean tangible assets occasionally take a break from the main uptrend.

2. Gloomy economic news from the US

A global recession would certainly cause demand for commodities to fall somewhat. It’s one reason traders have to sell commodities. We don’t agree that it will kill the boom. But there will be times when some commodity holders lose their nerve and sell.

3. Investors’ continuing need for an inflation shield

Given that the Federal Reserve slashed both headline rates by 75 points less than two weeks ago, there’s still plenty of reason to think people will buy commodities to protect themselves from inflating prices. Low interest rates mean cheaper credit. An easy money supply always leads to inflation in the long term. And you can bet that central banks will continue to heave money at falling financial markets to slow the rot. That’s inflationary.

4. Direction of the US dollar

The US dollar will probably head downwards in the long-term, but at the moment it could move either way. The dollar was so depressed before the Fed cut rates that it actually rebounded. This, we feel, is a temporary break against the norm. And when the dollar moves down, commodities quoted in dollars become more valuable nominally. Traders will buy commodities as a hedge against a falling dollar.

5. All types of market participants are willing to bet on the long-term commodity trend

Not just traders and investors, but consumers of commodities – like Chinese steel mills – will be keen to jump into the market and pile on inventories while piling is cheap. When commodity prices fall, there will be dip-buyers keen to make a thrifty purchase.

Looking at that list, it’s not hard to see why the price of grain futures or an oil ETF could fluctuate. Traders and hedge funds have a lot to think about. Those factors won’t all take precedence at the same time, of course. This adds to commodity volatility.

Predicting exactly when each will be most prominent is impossible. Don’t bother trying. Instead, read on. There are two corners of the resource market that have excellent potential for gains… and speculators haven’t taken advantage of them yet.