What a time to be part of such a popular, well-regarded newsletter. From what I’ve heard and read, Notes subscribers are some of the most-informed, thought-provoking readers anywhere. I sincerely look forward to opening a dialogue with all of you.

As you know, there has never been a more pivotal time in this country’s financial future than right now.

The dollar is weak.

The word “jobs” has become an atrocious four-letter symbol for economic despair.

The government owns Detroit, Wall Street and is desperately trying to get its hands on healthcare.

And, worst of all, China could eat our economy for breakfast.

Indeed, there will be no shortage of topics to discuss over the next few months.

But first, you are owed a proper introduction. I am hoping to get to know many of you through commentary and feedback, but before you can drop me a line, you have to know who you are writing to.

First and foremost, if you are looking for Wall Street flash, I’m not your guy. Far from it.

I’m not a Mercedes and gold watch kind of investor. In fact, I drive a pickup truck to the office and wear a digital watch that I bought on Amazon for $14 a few years ago.

When they were handing out made-for-TV personalities, well, I must have been out fishing that day.

That’s fine with me.

Too many folks talk too much and think too little. After all, what is talking? In most cases, it’s nothing but a bunch of hot air, especially in this game.

Like that bunch on CNBC. Don’t get me started. How a few headline reading clowns became the face of finance is beyond me. For most of them, it’s dissecting Wall Street in the morning and hocking OxyClean in the evening.

These guys won’t ever let facts get in the way of their opinion.

If you want facts, I will give you facts.

How about a market that is still 30% below its highs?

Or $80 oil in an economy that is screaming, “No mas!”

Or an American dollar that is weaker than Obama’s economic acumen?

Or a Fed Reserve with more power than any unelected board in global history?

I could go on and on about the subjects that keep today’s investors up at night, but what would we discuss in the coming days?

Like I said, there has never been a more pivotal time in the nation’s economic outlook. Even better, there has never been a time to be at the helm of a popular contrarian newsletter.

You are my kind of people. The thinkers. The realists. You don’t talk just to make noise. You think, then discuss. I am excited to see what we get into.

*** Now that you know a bit about me and the way I think, let me share some of my recent work with you.

As you know, the commodities market has been off the charts over the last eight months or so. Just about everything that can be pulled from the ground has soared in value as investors from across the globe have flocked to anything with a tangible value.

With a weakening dollar, the appreciation is understandable. With everything but natural gas, that is.

Natural gas is America’s fuel. The vast majority of what we produce is used within our borders, with very little demand contained in the export or import business.

Even though a nasty recession has significantly reduced natural gas orders, production is on the rise and prices have more than doubled in recent months. With natural gas reserves nearly full and the winter’s increased demand yet to show up, the markets are about to realize they made a horrific mistake.

Natural gas is unlike any other commodity. It has nothing to do with currency or global economic health, yet speculators treated it just like oil or even gold.

Bad move.

Traders are now paying for their mistakes.

Besides writing articles and commentary for TodaysFinancialNews.com, I am also tasked with running an options trading service called TFN Strategic Trader. It is a fast-moving easy-to-use options service that loves to take advantage of short-term market mistakes.

Less than two weeks ago, I lifted the curtain on my latest special report, an in-depth look at the nation’s natural gas industry. At the bottom of page 5, I listed three trades that offered triple-digit gain potential.

I admit, I made a mistake.

I said the gains would come by January 15. I was too conservative!

Already, two of the plays are up by 140% and 170%, with the third up by just 13%. Those two big gainers and one soon-to-be big gainer alone could easily make up for two years worth of market losses for investors still suffering.

But we are not cashing in yet. The best is yet to come. You can read the full report here.

*** The next few weeks and months are going to be quite interesting. I am not one to scream and shout, but let’s face it. Our nation and economy ain’t what she used to be.

Instead of protesting with a teabag or pleading with your congressman, I’d rather you protect your wealth, make you some more money and ensure that no matter what happens, the life you know is not going anywhere.

We’ll fight back, but not in any way they are used to seeing.

Web-based selling is still a relatively new way of retailing and has yet to be tested by a true economic contraction. So while theories are plentifuly and varied, there’s no historical standard to point the way this time.

Experts agree that online stores continue to do well despite the current slowdown in U.S. consumer spending, but their reasons for the continued success of Web-based retailers differ.

“Store sales will be hit harder than Internet sales because affluent shoppers, who form the core of online buyers, tend to ride out economic downturns better than lower- and middle-income consumers,” said Jeff Grau, eMarketer senior analyst.

But others believe that bargain hunting, not higher incomes, is driving Web traffic.

“Disposable incomes are being squeezed and what is drawing people online is the perception that the internet is cheaper and that they can shop around to get bargains and lower prices,” said Malcolm Pinkerton, senior retail analyst at Verdict Research. “Broadband is also cheaper and it has broadened the spectrum of people who can shop online.”

It’s likely to be a combination of both, as even higher income consumers search for ways to offset the crippling cost of gas.

Online is Big Business

There were $127.7 billion in U.S. e-commerce sales in 2007, according to eMarketer data. The research firm estimates that number will hit $146 billion in 2008. But while those numbers are impressive, online sales only account for about 4% of total U.S. retail sales.

First quarter sales for Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), one of the best-known names in online retailing increased 37% to $4.13 billion in the first quarter of 2008 compared to $3.02 for the same period a year ago.

“Our sales growth this quarter was driven by low prices and millions of in-stock items available for immediate shipment,” said Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon.com, in the company’s earnings release statement. “We’re grateful to our customers.”

Traditional retail outlets such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) have been able to cut costs and continue sales growth with heavy discounting. Wal-Mart sales grew 10% in the retail giant’s fiscal first quarter. But Wal-Mart is the exception, not the rule, as other retail businesses such as The Home Depot Inc. (HD) and J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (JCP) have posted losses and sales declines.

Penney is hoping the Web holds the key to improved sales for the struggling clothing and home furnishing retailer. Online sales are the fast growing division for the firm and management is allocating the marketing budget accordingly.

“We see JCP.com as the No. 1 priority as we go forward as far as where that money will go,” Mike Boylson, executive vice president and chief marketing officer, said Tuesday in a keynote address to the Internet Retailer Conference & Exhibition in Chicago, Internet Retailer reported.

No One Knows What the Online Future Holds

Even with more traditional retailers jumping on the Internet bandwagon, the recent rapid growth in online retail sales is going to slow, according to a recent eMarketer report. Sales growth in 2008 is expected to slow to 14.3% from a growth rate of 19.8% in 2007. Future projections see a similar steady decline (see chart below).

“A drop in the number of new online buyers is an inevitable sign of the maturation of the online retail channel,” said Grau. But as more people gain Internet-access, “Retail e-commerce could get a boost from underserved consumer segments such as seniors and Hispanic-Americans.”

More people are jumping on the net daily. Philadelphia already offers free wireless Internet access to its residents. As the price of computers comes down and if more cities follow Philly’s lead, millions of consumers who didn’t have access to the Web before could become new online shoppers.

“Online retail sales are maturing and the lion’s share of future growth will primarily come from existing buyers spending more in the online channel,” Patti Freeman Evans, senior analyst at JupiterResearch, said. “Assuming growth continues in a similar trajectory over the coming decades, U.S. online retail sales will plateau at 10% to 15% of total U.S. retail sales, barring a dramatic change in the online shopping experience that promotes an inordinate spending shift among buyers”

Technology is always changing and an “inordinate spending shift” doesn’t seem too far out of the realm of possibility. Just a decade ago, a phone like Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) new 3G iPhone seemed impossible. If more and more people are carrying full Internet-access around in their pockets, it’s almost impossible to predict what the effect will be on Web-based retail sales.

Source: Online Retail Sales Shake Off Weak U.S. Economy and Continue to Grow

Ay, Caramba! If it’s not one thing it’s another with these pesky fossil fuels. At what point do we say “enough is enough”? It’s high time the world kicked its oil and gas habit… and the way things are going, we soon might not have a choice.

But where there is pain, there is profit. The free market is good at solving problems for that very reason. Whoever figures out how to wean the world off oil will get very rich indeed — and some farsighted companies are preparing to do just that. Sally Limantour has the details, and some big profits in hand to prove her case. Read on to find out more.

Warm Regards,

JL

Silicon Valley Titans Turn Oil Pain Into Billions

by Sally Limantour, Editor, Taipan

Crude oil trading above $130 a barrel has lots of folks tearing their hair out. But out west in Silicon Valley, the VC boys are grinning from ear to ear.

Why? Because they know that the world’s oil pain is their gain… to the tune of tens of billions in profits, or maybe even more.

Take John Doerr, for example. You may not have heard of this Silicon Valley titan, but in the world of venture capital he’s an investing legend. As a partner in one of the world’s top VC firms, Doerr amassed a huge fortune for himself with pre-IPO stakes in companies like Netscape, Amazon.com and Google.

Now Doerr is onto the next big thing: “cleantech,” which is shorthand for clean energy technology.

Doerr is convinced that opportunities in the cleantech space will be as lucrative as anything he’s seen before. (From the man who helped launch Netscape and Google, that’s really saying something.)

70% Gains for Starters

The good news is you don’t have to be an ultra-connected VC like Doerr to make a killing in cleantech. There are amazing opportunities here for regular investors like you and me.

Showing is better than telling, so just take a look at the following chart.

That’s the chart of a cleantech stock I recommended in the most recent issue of the Taipan newsletter. The company is a respected leader in a rapidly growing industry, with exciting technology and a $2 billion-plus market cap.

The pick was added to the Taipan portfolio as a patient investment buy. Little did we know that the very next earnings report would blow the roof off Wall Street’s expectations. Shortly after we got in, the stock soared by more than 70% in just weeks.

I’ll be advising my readers to take partial profits soon — that’s just good discipline when the profits come pouring in that quickly. But at the same time, this move is no flash in the pain. We’ll be holding at least half the position for major long-term gains, as this company and others like it show potential for 100%, 200% or even 500% to 1,000% returns over the next few years.